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Sunday, January 6, 2013

Playoff predictions adjusted

I messed up my.seedings

I was.4-0 picking winners this weekend, and 3-1 ATS

Rest of the way

Seattle @ Atlanta
Prediction: Atlanta 24 23

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Prediction: San Fran 27  24

Houston @ New England
Prediction: New England 34 20

Baltimore @ Denver
Prediction: Denver 24 20

Conference Championships

San Fran over Seattle by 6

New England over Denver by 7

49ers 27  Patriots 24

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Playoff Predictions

Late to post predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Houston 30 - Cincy 17

Green Bay 27 - Minnesota 20

Seattle 31 - Washington 24

Baltimore 30 - Indianapolis 20

Picks the rest of way

San Fran over Seattle
New England over Baltimore
Denver over Houston
Green Bay over Atlanta

San Fran over Green Bay
New England over Denver

San Fran over New England

Wednesday, January 2, 2013


-19.7, huge day on New Year's Day to bounce back, had a few tough
breaks the two days prior

Picking the rest of the games

1 Parlay left in play (I hit 2 thus far in SJSU, the over, and OK
State / OK St, NW, South Carolina push)

Parlay 3 Teams
Oregon -9
Oregon OVER 75.5
A&M Over 72

Louisville @ Florida -14 TOTAL 46

Pick - OVER 46 4*

Kansas State @ Oregon -8 TOTAL 75.5

PICK - OREGON -8 10* Biggest Bowl Bet
PICK - OVER 75.5 4*

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma +3.5 TOTAL 72

PICK - A&M -3 (buy it) 4*
PICK - OVER 72 5*

Pittsburgh @ Mississippi -3.5 TOTAL 52

PICK - PITT ML +145 2*
PICK - UNDER 52 3*


PICK - OVER 61 4*


PICK - BAMA -9.5 3*
PICK - UNDER 41.5 3*

Thursday, December 27, 2012

College Bowl Picks 12/27/12 - 01/01/13

-2.1 overall
5-6 ats

have slipped last 5 selections, big turnaround here over the next few days

writeups to follow

12/27 games

san jose state -7 3* selection

cincy/duke over 60.5 4* selection

baylor/ucla over 81 5* selection

12/28 games

UL-Monroe/Ohio over 61 3*

UL-Monroe -7 2*

Rutgers/V Tech under 41 4*

Texas Tech -13 5*

12/29 games

Air Force/Rice over 61.5 4*

Navy +14.5 2*

WVA/Cuse over 73 7*

Oregon State -3 5*

TCU -3 3*

TCU/MSU under 41 3*

12/31 games

NC State/Vandy under 52 3*

GTech/USC over 64 5*

Iowa State -1 2*

Clemson/LSU over 5*

1/1 games

Purdue/OK ST over 70 9*

OK ST -16.5 7*

Northwestern +1.5 5*

South Carolina -6 2*

UGA -10 3*

UGA/Nebraska under 60.5 3*

Stanford -6.5 4*

Northern Illinois +13.5 2*

1/2 -National Championship to come

Saturday, December 22, 2012



New York Giants -1 @ Baltimore

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the
Falcons. The Giants are given the benefit of the doubt because we've
seen them look terrible before only to turn it on for a late season
run. However, I don't think this particular incarnation of the Giants
has the ferocity to make a serious run. Hakeem Nicks is either hurt
or someone stole his powers (think Austin Powers 2) and Bradshaw has
failed to consistently stay on the field. A week ago I extolled the
virtues of David Wilson. He excelled in his first game as the
featured back but regressed in the second. However, I think that may
have been due in large part to the ever increasing point deficit.
Baltimore's defense can't seem to stop anyone on the ground. With
Bradshaw and Wilson splitting reps, the load should come off of Eli
considerably this week.

Flacco isn't playing well. He has options at receiver and tight end,
an all pro caliber running back and serviceable line but he has failed
to take that next step. He may be the Medoza line for NFL QB's. Any
worse and you might as well rebuild, any better and you're competing
for the playoffs. Flacco has the physical tools but something's
missing that prevents him from taking the next step. The Giants run
the ball all over Baltimore and Flacco fails to do enough for the win.

NYG 23 BAL 20

Buffalo @ Miami -4.5

Buffalo is bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick is living off his early season
stretch from a year ago. He's a backup QB. He's got a few weapons
but he rarely shows the ability or aptitude to take full advantage of
them. Defensively, Mario Williams is playing well but certainly
nowhere near the Bills hoped when the inked that free agent deal.
Buffalo struggles in almost every facet of the game. Miami, on the
other hand, isn't that bad. In fact, they're a good-bad team. Reggie
Bush has quietly put together another solid year (just under 900 yards
and 5 TDs) and Ryan Tannahill isn't the train wreck I expected him to
be coming into the season. He's a big strong guy who flashes
brilliance. Brian Hartline even eclipsed the 1k mark last week in
receiving yards. Defensively, Miami excels against the run. CJ
Spiller isn't likely to find day light running into the Dolphins
front. Miami's secondary leaves something to be desired, but they
parted ways in the offseason with a couple of key veterans as a part
of an overall culture change. Those moves left the defense vulnerable
to the passing attack but I think the Miami brass sees that as a
growing pain. They're trending in the right direction as the Bills
head south. Look for the Dolphins to finish strong and build
expectations for next year.

BUFF 17 MIA 24


3-3 in bowl game bets this year, +5.7 units

2 games saturday

ECU @ UL-LAFAYETTE -6.5 / 67

both teams come in with 3 game winning streaks

trends show that in non-conference games over the last three years the
over is 9-2 with UL-LAF, they also show that over the last three years
when ECU plays a team with a winning record they are 2-8 in ten games

I like UL-Lafayette to cover the spread in this game. This is a home
game as it is played in the Superdome and it is on turf so itll be a
fast track for these two teams.

Flat out ECU scores 26+ in this game just because they make explosive
plays in the passing game. I put this game at 41-31 in favor of

Considering its a nationally televised game, the points will flourish
early, i will up the total, get on with the public, and also take this
under in what has the makings of a shootout written all over it.

2 Picks in this game

UL LAF -6.5 3* pick
OVER 67 5* pick

Washington vs Boise State -5.5 / 43.5

Two physical styled teams in this matchup. Both have better defenses
than their offenses, and while they are not on the Blue Turf, i give
the edge to the move senior laden team of Boise State. This should be
a defensive battle and I expect more field goals than touchdowns.

Boise held Nevada to just 227 yards rushing on 47 attempts, theyve
caused 11 turnovers in their last 5 games (4-1) and they didn;t allow
over 21 points in those games either

Washington has caused 19 turnovers in their last 5 games, only
allowing 120 yards per game rushing in their last five games, but
Keith Price and their offense has been inconsistent all year.

Take the under in this game, the sharpe money is on it and the public
will jump on the over and push the line backup ti 44.5/45 area.

Under 43.5 3*

RECORD - 1-2 on Friday in the ball state game
3-3 overall (+5.3 units)

Friday, December 21, 2012

BALL STATE +7.5 vs Central Florida

Friday Night

Beef O'Brady Bowl

BALL STATE VS Central Florida

Trends I like here -

Ball State on the season is 9-3 ATS, and 14-4 on Turf in the Last 3
years. This team is fast on both sides of the ball and they have won
their past 4 games in this fashion of 31-24 type of scores

Central Florida has been a team where the Over has been favorable;
10-3 this season. But in the last 3 years in non-conference games the
trend is 9-2 in favor of the UNDER

UCF played TULSA is 2 of the last 3 weeks and lost both games throwing
for under 200 yards in both and averaging under 3 yards per carry,
the fact that they couldn't win either game especially with the IN
BETWEENER beeing a blowout against UAB makes me question the
preparation for Ball State

I have 3 plays for this game

UNDER 59.5 3* Pick

BALL STATE +7.5 4* Pick


I really like Ball State getting this many points as these two teams
are evenly matched but i see no reason for UCF to be "up" for it. I
like the under for the fact that ball state has had over a month to
prepare for the orthodox offense of UCF

9units on the line

record - 2-1 +8.7 units