SUPER BOWL PICKS

ERIC:

PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY (-3)

The Packers, the Steelers and the Cowboys are all what we call “public” teams. They have large fan bases throughout the country and the uninformed gambler will place bets on these teams without objectively considering them. This popularity along with ESPN’s penchant for creating inane stories to debate spurred a discussion over who is really America’s Team. It’s a title NFL Films assigned to the Dallas Cowboys many years ago and has spurred resentment ever since. ESPN.com as well as a few shows had this debate, and of course most argued the Steelers or the Packers were in fact America’s Team. Right. You know why you don’t hear Dallas fans defending this title? Because they don’t have to- they’re America’s Team, don’t forget it.

Aaron Rodgers is a bona-fide star. He’s the second best scramblers next to Vick and he’s arguably the best (at least the hottest) passer in the league. Of course, Rodgers has a tremendously talented group of receivers around him. The Packers are a running game away from having an absolutely dominant offense. These receivers against the Steelers’ secondary is the key match up to watch. Pittsburgh allowed Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes to break lose a couple of time. If it weren’t for some dicey play calling and the feast or famine style of Mark Sanchez, they could easily have lost the AFC title game. I think this game rests on the Steelers ability to get enough of a pass rush on Rodgers to relive the pressure form this secondary. The Packers will not be able to run on Pittsburgh. The tandem of Starks and Jackson doesn’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Steeler nation. Rodgers poses the biggest rushing threat to the Steelers. However, Packers coach Mike McCarthy seems stubbornly committed to running the ball. In the past, he has claimed that a team must run the ball 30 times to win a game. I think the early 20’s would be a more realistic approach in this game. The lack of a running game will be mitigated with quick slant passes. Again, this puts the pressure on the Steelers’ secondary, who must make tackles or else risk putting the speedy Packers’ receivers in the open field.

Conversely, I feel the Steelers can and will run the ball. I love what Rashard Mendenhall has done with the ball in his hands. Over the past few games, Mendenhall emerged as the workhorse back Pittsburg thought they were getting in the ’08 draft. He didn’t have a lot of yards against the stingy Baltimore D, but he did rack up two touchdowns. Against the Jets, Mendenhall went off for just under 150 yards and a score. He stands as the key for the Steelers.

Last week, Roethlisberger got it done in the 4^th. However, he didn’t have a pass longer than 25 yards. Mendenhall kept the offense moving and alleviated the need for Big Ben to find guys like Mike Wallace for large gains. Mendenhall could keep Rodgers off the field and allow the Steelers to control the clock.

However, I do not feel comfortable entrusting my money to mostly underachieving running back. I love Rodgers, Jennings, Driver et al. They’re going to bring home the trophy named for a man who built their franchise and get the cover in the process.

PICK: GREEN BAY 37 - Pittsburgh 24

TAKE GB & OVER

Eric's AFC/NFC Championship Picks

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears

Since the demise of the Patriots, the public appears to have jumped on the Packers bandwagon. If the Packers do in fact go on to win the Super Bowl, we will remember the 2010 playoffs as the year Aaron Rodgers established himself as one finest quarterbacks in the game alongside Manning, Brees, an Brady. If the Pack does in fact win, Rodgers will also have as many Super Bowls as Brett Farve. Perhaps no one benefited more than Aaron Rodgers from Brett Farve’s choice to come back to the Vikings for one more year (except for maybe Joe Webb). Farve twice beat Rodgers convincingly last season and took his team to the conference championship. Had Farve ridden off in to the sunset, Rodgers would never had the chance to beat him and perhaps his lecherous behavior would have gone relatively unnoticed (or he could have simply bought them off). Regardless, Packers GM Ted Thompson made a ballsy but terrific move going with Rodgers and dealing Farve to the Jets.

In a similar vein, the Bears knew they couldn’t win the big one without a QB. Even if you have one of the all time great defenses and spectacular special teams, championships require at least a competent quarterback (Trent Dilfer was better than people like to give him credit for). The Bears brass rolled the dice and brought in the enormously talented Jay Cutler. Cutler’s potential is unlimited. I love watching the guy throw ropes all over the place. However, he’s a narcissistic semi-jerk who dates reality TV stars. The gamble paid off. The Broncos have the #2 overall pick in the draft and the Bears grabbed the #2 seed in the playoffs. I do not feel Cutler is as responsible for his team’s success as Aaron Rodgers is for the Pack. However, as Jay goes, so go the Bears. He could single-handedly lose the game for them by forcing throws, holding the ball too long, or giving the Pack turnovers. Conversely, he can make throws no one else can. He makes the Bears’ mediocre (and that’s a generous adjective) receiving corps appear adequate. Cutler has Rodgers in the raw talent department but I would take Rodgers any day of the week.

Both of these teams have defenses. I’m well aware of this fact despite what the above paragraphs lead you to believe. We all know the Bears’ D. They established their brand in the Super Bowl run a few years back. Julius Peppers was the perfect addition. Peppers infused youth, speed, and power into the aging Chicago defense. Perhaps most important, Peppers must be accounted for. He consistently draws the attention of the offense in the form of double teams. He takes the burden off guys like Urlacher who need the relief. Green Bay’s offensive line and their running attack are the only thing I foresee stalling a Super Bowl run. I do not feel the Packers will find much of anything on the ground. Aaron Rodgers leads them in rushing yards and makes at least two big first down runs in the game. Unfortunately for the Bears, Rodgers will also lead them in passing yards. Danieal Manning will play a prominent role in this one for the Packers. Can you see him containing James Jones or Donald Driver? Me neither.

This Mike Martz offense isn’t exactly a clone of the ’99 Rams. They rank 28^th in the league in passing and 22^nd in rushing. Cutler has the ability to have a huge game, but I just can’t see him getting over on this Dom Capers’ defense. Clay Matthews emerged into a premier pass rusher this season. He will give Cutler a fit and force him into at least 1 interception perhaps more.

I would like to see the Bears win, I really would. 2 weeks of Cutler and Rex Ryan mouthing off-maybe Mark Sanchez could start dating LC- but I just don’t see it. The Packers are peaking at the perfect time.

Lock it up, PACKERS -3.5

New York Jets (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This Jets team reminds me somewhat of the ’85 Bears in terms of brashness. That Bears team had a right to be. They were perhaps the best defensive unit ever and had the NFL’s number 2 all time rusher. That was supposed to be the Jets this season- stellar defense, great rushing attack, pretty boy QB that manages the game well *and* a couple of receivers to stretch the field). They have accomplished all of those things in a way, but not in an overly convincing fashion. Last week, I don’t know if I was more impressed with the Jets or more disappointed in the Patriots. I wrote that the Jets primary advantage was their speed and talent at receiver. That proved to be true, but I was shocked at how the Jet’s D handled the Patriots. The Pats appeared poorly prepared for the game and I cannot recall seeing Brady more rattled in a big game.

Just when I think you can stick a fork in Tomlinson, he proves me wrong. I can’t see him playing a big factor on the ground in this one. This kind of game is Shonne Green’s turf. Green runs low with power. That’s what it will take to move the chains against the Steelers. Even still, I do not foresee more than 60 yards for Green. The Jets ability to pull off the upset will lie with their receiving corps. Braylon Edwards flashed some of his potential in that big TD catch and run last week and Santonio Holmes, as Steelers fans know, has an ability to make insane catches in big moments. If Joe Namath were under center (or even Ken O’Brien) I’d like the Jets’ chances for an upset a whole lot more. Sanchez has certainly had his moments, but I don’t know if I can trust him with my money.

Roethlisberger will not go down as easily as Brady. Big Ben not have the ability to read defenses like Brady but he’s a more imposing figure in the pocket. He has a great knack for extending plays, which places a more stress upon the Jets’ secondary. Darrelle Revis will have his hands full with Mike Wallace. Wallace is an underrated emerging star and I think Pittsburgh will find creative ways to get him away from Revis. Rashard Mendenhall is much better than the Green-Ellis/Woodhead combo of the Patriots. He’s a big physical runner and a much more difficult match up for the Jets. One big plus for the Jets, the Steelers offensive line has been decimated by injury. If the Jets get rolling with the pass rush, I feel the secondary will shut down the Steelers passing game.

I like the Jets, but can you trust Sanchez? Can you bet against Big Ben? I’d love to see Flozell Adams get a ring but also love the idea of a Jets-Bears Super Bowl. This is a Pittsburgh team that held the Ravens to under 150 yards of offense last week. However, the Ravens lacked any real speed on the outside allowing the Steelers to focus on shutting down Ray Rice. The Jets have the talent to prevent a clamp down. It’s a tough call, but my gut says the Jets cover and may just eek out a win.

AFC PICK: JETS +3.5

Eric's Locks of Week 16

Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have established themselves among the 2^nd tier elite in the NFL this season. Last week’s win over New Orleans ranks as one of their most impressive to date. New Orleans sports an offense keenly designed to exploit Baltimore’s weak secondary. In their first meeting of the year, Joe Flacco lit up the Browns for 3 TDs and over 250 yards. Ray Rice broke out last week have the type of game we thought we’d see week in and week out. The Ravens could make a statement by running roughshod over the Browns tomorrow. Anquan Boldin has a great game and Baltimore’s offense puts up a lot of points. Defensively, the Ravens must focus on stopping Peyton Hillis. Hillis puts up most of his numbers early in games. He slows down a great deal by the 4^th quarter. The Browns will likely have to rely at least in part on a solid throwing day from Colt McCoy to keep pace with Baltimore. McCoy became a nice surprise for the Browns organization this year and an even better one for the Browns fans. The Jake Delhomme era was brief and uneventful. A huge day from Josh Cribbs in the return game is the only way I see the Ravens not covering this one. The Ravens roll and get the cover.

PICK: RAVENS -4

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders

The Colts control their own destiny and I doubt that facts been lost on Manning. Anytime the playoffs are on the line, I’m betting on Manning. He’s one of the most consistent regular season players ever. The Raiders, on the other hand, have been somewhat schizophrenic this season. I am leery to trust Jason Campbell and company just yet. Manning should have Joe Addai back giving the team at least a semblance of a ground attack, taking some pressure off Manning by giving the play action pass back.

McFadden puts up a couple of touchdowns but the Raiders struggle to find production through the passing game. The colts win, not in a route, but by more than enough to get the cover.

PICK: COLTS -2.5

Eric's Locks of Week 15 NFL

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Shanahan really has a way with his players. No doubt free agents will come a runnin’ to Washington after witnessing Shanahan’s professional and courteous touch. Haynesworth probably deserved some of the treatment, but McNabb surely does not. McNabb struggled this season but the Redskins gave him a long term deal. However, the Skins added a caveat allowing them an out after this season if they should decide to part ways with McNabb. The benching announced today makes that look like a psychological ploy to get McNabb comfortable and see what happens. Shanahan dropped McNabb to third on the depth chart behind Rex Grossman and John Beck. That’s an attack on McNabb, he’s still got a couple of decent years left in him and could provide a franchise some stability while developing a future starter. After all, he isn’t Derek Anderson. McNabb once faced Jake Delhomme in a NFC championship game- that seems like a life time ago. The Redskins are throwing in the towel and unless they can get Ryan Torain rolling they’re getting their doors blown off.

I attended the Dallas game last Sunday night and I’ve got to say, the crowd was very lively for a seemingly meaningless game. The fans appreciate how the team has played since Jason Garrett took over. Despite injuries and an atrocious record, the team continues to work hard. DeSean Jackson is the fastest human being I’ve ever seen in person, but fortunately for Dallas, the Skins do not have anyone that can match his speed. Jason Garrett hasn’t locked up the head coaching position yet and Jon Kitna knows this might be his last year in the sun. Many of the other players are playing for their roster spots next year as it appears the Cowboys will have a high draft pick and almost every position is a need.

Dallas get a big win (big for them- it’s all they have left) in a route.

PICK: DALLAS -7

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5)

It would seem Vegas has little faith in the Jaguars. The Jags have played very well as of late and Jones-Drew has been unstoppable. Manning played well last week but I can’t shake the image of him throwing pick after pick in the 2 weeks prior. The team is still missing a number of key players and they can’t seem to stop the run against anyone they play. The Jags can’t stop the pass and the Colts have the number one passing team in the league. That’s partially due to their having the worst running game in the league. They rank 29^th against the run and face a Jags team with the second best rushing attack in the NFL.

Look for Jacksonville to play keep away from Manning and limit his chances to score. The Colts will do their best to get after Gerard and force him into a few poor choices. The Colts will do just enough to pull this one out but the Jags cover and the AFC South picture gets muddier.

PICK: JACKSONVILLE +5

Eric's Locks of Week 14

New England Patriots (-3) @ Chicago Bears

Does Tom Brady have hair plugs? My girlfriend says he does and the Sports Guy mention something to that effect? I am certainly not a patriots fan but in a time when America is constantly questioned, doesn’t he seem like the appropriate ambassador? He’s not effeminate like Euro soccer guys and always gives an air of I don’t care to the media. I’ve seen him play and hair plugs aside, its beautiful thing. Jay Cutler dates Laguna Beach has-beens, Brady dates (marries) girls who are too good for Victoria’s Secret. Three points? Nope- give em seven and I still take the Pats. New England wins big in a route.

PICK: NEW ENGLAND -3

Kansas City @ San Diego (-9)

Phillip Rivers is an easy player to hate. On the field, he often comes across as an arrogant jerk to the casual Charger’s observer. However, what Rivers has accomplished thus far is nothing short of great. General Manager AJ Smith, made a big miscalculation. The Chargers cast aside LaDanian (French for the The Danian) Tomlinson and drafted running back Ryan Matthews in the first round. As it turns out, Tomlinson isn’t dead and Ryan Matthews isn’t good. To be fair, Matthews has struggled with injuries and Tomlinson appeared washed up last year. To make matters worse, two of the team’s best players left tackle Marcus McNeil and receiver Vincent Jackson were both embroiled in public contract disputes. McNeil resigned to a long term deal with the Chargers and Jackson returned to obtain a vested year in order to gain unrestricted status after the season. Further exacerbating the team’s personnel troubles, top receivers Malcolm Floyd, Legadu Nanee and All Pro Antonio Gates have become fixtures on the team’s injury report. Despite all of this, Rivers continues to put up Pro Bowl numbers. You may loathe Philip Rivers on a personal level, but he’s a baller on par with any of the top QB’s in the league.

I love seeing Kansas City relevant again. Growing up, I was married to the NFC. Those games mattered and AFC games didn’t. There was a period when the NFC dominated. Beginning with ’84 49ers and ending with the ’96 Packers, the NFC won every single Super Bowl. The AFC was like a mistress for me- just a little fun on the side. The Steve DeBerg-Marty Schottenheimer days are long gone but it appears Todd Haley and his big name staff has a little something going. Matt Cassel’s play has flown slightly under the radar. He’s developed a nice rapport with Dwayne Bowe and the combination of Thomas Jones and Jamal Charles gives them enough to grind out games.

San Diego needs a win here to keep pace with KC. I think they win easy with the recent news of Matt Cassel being ruled OUT due to his Wednesday appendectomy. Brodie Croyle will get the start for the Chiefs, Jamaal Charles will be running hard after being awarded a nice new contract this week, but the fact of the matter is the Chargers rarely lose in November and December. They took a nasty loss last week at home against Oakland, no chance they lose two in a row in San Diego in December.

PICK: CHARGERS -9

Eric's Locks of Week 13

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Favre and new coach Leslie Frazier take on the perpetually exciting Bills. In case you haven’t noticed, the Bills have played in some of the most enjoyable games this year. Of course, they rarely end up on top in those games but they’re entertaining nonetheless. Steve Johnson and Lee Evans have given the Bills some pop in the passing game. As long as God doesn’t decide to continue his vendetta against Johnson, he and Harvard’s own Ryan Fitzpatrick will have a nice day against the porous Viking secondary. Brett Favre did enough to not lose last week against the Redskins. Toby Gerhart did his Mike Alstott impression last week trucking into the end zone carrying 2 ‘Skins with him last week. Gerhart’s a nice change of pace back but if Adrian Peterson (game time decision) doesn’t play, the Vikings likely lose the game. Either way the Bills cover and we may have Tavaris Jackson sighting by the end of the day.

PICK: BUFFALO +5.5

Washington @ New York Giants (-7)

Two schizophrenic teams that are wildly inconsistent from week to week. The Giants did everything they could to lose to Jacksonville last week and the Redskins reaffirmed that Brad Childress was the problem in Minnesota. Who knows who the Redskins will have in the backfield, word on the street is that they picked up a day laborer from Home Depot to take handoffs. New York is in the middle of a struggle to remain atop the NFC East. This is a pivotal game for the Giants, dropping one here would put them in a difficult position behind the streaking Eagles. Manning steps up the challenge and does just enough to get the win, but the Skins cover in a tight one.

PICK: WASHINGTON +7

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Big Ben’s foot seems to be the biggest headline heading into this game. The Bills had Pittsburgh on the ropes last Sunday and if it were for God’s interference, Steve Johnson wins the game for the Bills. The Ravens, however, look as solid as ever. They remain my Super Bowl favorite and take a strangle hold on the NFC North. Look for Ray Rice to catch a few balls for big yardage and a score out of the backfield. He’ll only get 50-60 rushing yards but he’ll have a great overall game. Mike Wallace comes up big but Mendenhall struggles and the Ravens get the win and the cover.

PICK: BALTIMORE -3

Eric's Sunday Lock of the Week

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Washington

The Vikings’ disappointing season led to the firing of Brad Childress. I think the team won in spite of Childress last season. Favre breathed life into the team and publicly battled with his coach over play calling. Injuries and Favre’s decline exposed Childress. He never connected with his players but winning covers those flaws up and keeps people happy. When the team began to lose, players grumbled, and Childress lost their confidence. They signed a wide range of receivers in an attempt to replace Sidney Rice’s production. The Randy Moss trade stunk of desperation and his subsequent release was simply embarrassing. Similar to the Cowboys, Minnesota fired the coach and brought up their top coordinator. Interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier will find employment elsewhere the Vikings elect not to retain his services. I think we see a reinvigorated Vikings team committed to running the ball and playing good defense.

The Redskins have fooled me several times this season. After an embarrassing loss to the Eagles, they bounced back with a solid win against the Titans. Of course, Rusty Smith was under center for the Titans. Washington released the corpse of Joey Galloway this week. Shanahan’s affinity for veteran players led to the signing and releasing of Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, and Joey Galloway this year. How could everyone else in the world know these guys were washed up other than the Redskins brass? The Redskins continue their roller-coaster season with another low. The Vikings get the win by keeping the ball in Adrian Peterson’s hands and harassing McNabb.

PICK: Vikings -2.5

Eric's Locks of Week 12

Eric's Locks of Thanksgiving Day NFL Games

Record: 12-6-2

PICK: SAINTS -4 vs Dallas, Brees and Company will put to rest this "Dallas comeback".

PICK: PATRIOTS -7.5 vs Detroit, Brady will come off the short week and exploit the Lions defense that typically plays well at home.

PICK: JETS -9 vs Cincinnati, Palmer will throw INT after INT if he targets TO, Revis shuts down Bengals and probably gets a TD of his own.

Eric's Lock of the Week

Eric's Record (11-4-2 ATS)

The Monday Night Special:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+3)

The Redskins took Michael Vick out of the game early in game 1. Vick returns to avenge the loss, and he will do just that. The Redskins have overachieved this year with new management as well as a new quarterback. However, part of that new management team (Mike Shanahan) undermined the quarterback last week and had the audacity to claim McNabb’s benching resulted from poor conditioning. Perhaps Shanahan wanted to give McNabb something to think about other than his pending Eagles rematch. He surely doesn’t think Rex Grossman gives them a better chance to win, I mean, he has seen Grossman play, hasn’t he? The Redskins have found a place for Albert Haynesworth in their modified 3-4 scheme making it difficult for teams up the middle. DeAngelo Hall came into the league overrated, was exposed in Oakland and summarily released, and now finds himself once again considered among the upper tier of cornerbacks in the league. Washington plays enough defense to win games (2 home losses this season both by 3 points), but I don’t think they can account for Vick’s mobility. In round 1, they did so by breaking a few of his ribs, but that’s unlikely to occur again. The Eagles have too many weapons, Maclin, Jackson, McCoy and Celek are as good as they get at the skill positions. And Vick's relationship with DeSean Jackson is phenomenal as he is 21-31 for 400+yards and 3 TD's. Throw in a freakish athlete like Vick at quarterback and you’ve got enough to go all the way. I’ve been waiting for Vick to revert back into his Atlanta form, making poor choices, looking to run too early but that simply hasn’t happened. In game 1, the Eagles turned into a different team when Kolb came in. It threw the pace and timing of the offense off and they never rebounded. Despite the poor showing, they still had a chance to win it at the game’s close. McNabb loses round 2 and the Eagles cover.

PICK: EAGLES -3

Eric's Locks of Week 9

Record: 10-4-1

Tampa Bay (+8.5) @ Atlanta

The NFC is wide open and Atlanta looks like they have as good a chance as anyone to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They’ve got a steady QB, a top flight running back, an aging but still effective tight end and a very good receiving corps. Defensively, they have some questions, especially in the secondary. They’ve well enough to pull out wins and with the exception of the Eagles game, have looked like the better team. For some reason though, I’m simply not sold. I can’t trust Matty Ice to deliver a game winning drive under pressure and Michael Turner has had some durability issues. Sure, Atlanta will go to the playoffs and may win a game but no way they reach the Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, looks bad on paper. Statistically, they rank in the middle for every major category except for opponents rushing yards, which they come in at 30^th. Again, on paper, this would appear to play right into the hands of Atlanta. Josh Freeman looks confident and better than most thought at his early point in his career. Mike Williams provides him with a reliable target and Lagarrette (French for “The Garrette") Blount just had a breakout game last week against Arizona. Defensively, this team loaded up with young talent. They’re more than a year away from becoming serious contenders for the division crown but they’ve got a friskiness to them I like.

Atlanta will win this one. They’re the better team, I just don’t think they’re more than 8 points better. Mike Williams and Lagarrette Blount both have solid games and keep the Bucs in this one. I like Tampa Bay to cover but the Falcons to win.

PICK: TAMPA BAY +8.5

Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland

Odds makers must have put a lot of stock into these past two weeks by Oakland. Oakland has looked like a premier team. Darren McFadden, Jason Campbell, and Darrius Heyward-Bey played to their first round draft pick pedigree resulting in some of the best offensive output in franchise history. However, let’s add a little perspective. Yes, the Raiders got very very hot but they also played against two teams that were reeling. The Broncos have looked absolutely terrible over the past few weeks and Seattle overachieves at home and bombs on the road. Oakland may be playing its best football in a decade but that doesn’t say a whole lot.

Kansas City has benefited from an easy schedule. You could argue they’ve lost to the only quality teams they’ve played (Indy and Houston). However, the Chiefs play steady and make the most of what they have. Kansas City runs the ball well, makes just enough throws and plays solid defense. I like Chiefs’ Defensive Coordinator, Romeo Crennel, against Jason Campbell. No way Heyward-Bey has a repeat performance. Raider's corner Nnamdi Asomugha is listed as Questionable and may not play. Without him, the Raiders will lose the flexibility he brings. The Chiefs are 3 point dogs but I see them winning outright and cooling the Raiders off.

PICK: KANSAS CITY +3

Eric's Week 8 Locks

Miami Dolphins +2 @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals remain a mystery. Carson Palmer does not look good this year. He’s coming off his best game of the season. Last week he put up over 400 yards w three touchdowns on 50 attempts. I don’t trust him to put up those type of numbers in back to back weeks. Cincy has put up big passing yard numbers, but that’s only because they often have to play from behind. Last year, the Bengals were a defensive team that ran the ball well. This year, they have to appease Ochocinco and Owens and do it with a significantly downgraded version of Carson Palmer. Marvin Lewis will make a great defensive coordinator for some team next year.

Miami is coming off one of the all time screw jobs. I think it helps the Dolphins play the “us against the world” card. Tony Sparano does a fantastic job preparing his team and they have a relatively talented roster. With the exception of the blowout Miami suffered at the hands of the Patriots, they’ve been in every game. Unfortunately, the Dolphins play in the AFC East where no win comes easy (Just ask the Ravens about the Bills). Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams average over 4 yards per carry, but they have just 1 touchdown between them. Brandon Marshal puts up the yards but not the touchdowns. Chad Henne has not reached the point in his career where he will win a team games on his own. I don’t think this Miami team will make a playoff run, but they’re certainly more than a field goal better than the Bengals. Take Miami to win and cover.

PICK: MIAMI +2

Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ San Diego Chargers

Instead of the Pro Bowl the week before the Super Bowl, maybe the NFL should have the Chargers and Cowboys play in the disappointment bowl. San Diego may have both Floyd and Naanee back in the lineup (both listed as questionable but Floyd is a long shot) but a full compliment of receivers all at 75% will do them very little. With so many disappointing aspects to the Chargers season thus far, it is difficult to single out any one aspect. However, the failure of Ryan Matthews to emerge as a viable workhorse running back should have a place at the top of that list. San Diego fans hope his ineffectiveness results from nagging injuries but fear that he may just not be that good. Chargers GM A.J. Smith elected to play hardball with his left tackle and starting wide receiver, and got what he deserved. Both Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson will play at some point this year, but Smith’s conceit did its damage. With all that said, the stats for this team are great. San Diego ranks #1 in passing yards and in opponent passing yards and #4 in opponent rushing yards. The team showed some friskiness in their late game comeback against the Pats. If it were not for a false start penalty, which made a 45 yards field goal in a 50 yard one, the Chargers may have pulled out the W.

Tennessee’s defensive line will put pressure on Rivers all day. Without a viable running attack, the Titans can bring the heat. Safety, Michael Griffin, leads the secondary with 4 of the team’s 12 total interceptions. Jeff Fisher’s defense, steady running game, and ball protection has led the Titans to the top of the AFC South. I don’t trust this Chargers team. Rivers may break records this season, but that is not necessarily a good thing. Those numbers will be indicative of how one-sided the offense has become. The Chargers do not protect the ball and are penalty prone. They are the direct opposite of the Titans. The Titans will in San Diego and cover.

PICK: TENNESSEE +3.5

Eric's Week 7 LOCKS

ERIC'S RECORD - 7-3-1 ATS

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

Todd Bouman is the expected starter for this game. Bouman, 38 years young, last played in 2005 for the Saints where he amassed 7 picks and just 2 touchdowns. Not that David Garrard strikes fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators, but he's markedly better than Bouman. Romeo Crennel's defense will load the line to limit Jones-Drew and force Bouman to beat them. The Chiefs have the number 1 rushing offense entering this week and face a Jags D that ranks 20th against the run. I don't think they will ask Matt Cassel to do anything but hand the ball off and play it safe in the passing game. Rookie tight end Tony Moeaki continues to develop as a player in this league. The combination of Moeaki and Dwayne Bowe give the passing game just enough to be effective. Look for a big day out of Jammal Charles and a solid win for the Chiefs.

PICK: KANSAS CITY -9


New England (+3) @ San Diego Chargers

San Diego lost a lot last week. The Chargers lost Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates and Legedu Naanee to injury. Floyd will not play and the other 2 are game time decisions. Patrick Crayton filled in nicely last week. Crayton was the Cowboys' most consistent receiver over the past 3 years and despite being a bit older is a great route runner and a consummate professional. He will not provide Phillip Rivers with the deep threat he normally has, but he'll give him an option in the mid range passing game. Chargers' running back Ryan Matthews did not become the work horse head coach Norv Turner claimed he'd be prior to the season. Mike Tolbert has been just as effective and a much better red zone option. Matthews continues to struggle with a high ankle sprain and despite Rivers putting up good numbers, this offense will not have a good day.

The Patriots, on the other hand, enter the game with a rejuvenated Deion Branch headlining a no name receiving crew that appears to be hitting its stride. The Chargers have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Brady looks like he's in mid season form. The Patriots beat a very good Baltimore team and I think they keep rolling. The Chargers are (-3) underdogs and if they were at full strength, I'd take them in a moment. However, injuries will put more pressure on Rivers as well as the running game, and as a Ryan Matthews fantasy owner, I know the rushing attack isn't very good.

PICK: NEW ENGLAND +3

Eric's Locks of Week 6

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ New England Patriots

The Patriots surprised many football fans when they traded Randy Moss. We all know Moss had reverted into his natural state of being a pain in the ass but his absence leaves the Pats without a deep threat to take pressure from their possession receivers. Special teams ace Ben Tate must have truly impressed Belichick enough to provide the confidence to let Moss go. The Pats look like they are planning for bigger things in the years to come. They have acquired 7 picks in the first 4 rounds (actually 8 but they traded a 4^th rounder for the corpse of Deon Branch). Deep down, Belichick knows 2010 will not be a championship season for New England and letting Moss go was an admission of that. The Patriots cannot run the ball. Period. Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris will not strike fear into the hearts of any defensive unit, let alone the vaunted Baltimore Raven front seven. The Patriots will attempt to spread the Ravens out and throw against their secondary all day. This Ravens unit is too good to have a great deal of success being one-dimensional.

Belichick will have some trick up his hoodie for Flacco. Joe Flacco looked great the past two weeks, including a very impressive drive to defeat the Steelers. However, Flacco still makes mistakes and I think he’ll make a couple in this game. However, I think the combination of Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin will overwhelm the Pats’ D. The Ravens pull out another impressive victory on the road.

PICK: RAVENS +3

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans inexplicably lost to the Cardinals last weekend. The Super Bowl hangover is in full swing and the Saints may lose the division to the Falcons. The loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush means the loss of their rushing attack. Thomas may come back this week but his status is far from certain. Bush did not put up great stats but he added a dimension opposing defenses had to plan and account for. The Bucs have been a little frisky this year, Josh Johnson has put together a few surprising victories without a viable running game. Did you know Cadillac Williams was still alive? The Bus have a solid young foundation but their not on the same level as the Saints. I think the Saints bounce back and win this one by at least a touchdown. Johnson has a lot of promise, but I’ll take Brees and his corps of receivers to put up a nice score down in Tampa.

PICK: SAINTS -4.5

Eric's Locks of Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Did you know the Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the NFL? Unless you’ve sworn off ESPN, you have been made well aware of this fact. Odds makers set this line based on reputation over actual play in 2010. Indianapolis’ struggles against the run have been well-documented over the years. Once again, the Colts can’t seem to find an answer to establishing a respected run defense. The team hoped that Bob Sanders could make it through a season unscathed only to discover his body is made of papier-mâché. To make matters worse, the team placed Sanders’ replacement, Melvin Bullitt, on injured reserve after losing to the Jaguars in week 4. Last week the Colts’ porous defense surrendered 174 yards rushing and 31 points to the Jags. Manning put up great numbers (as usual) and the time of possession was almost equal but the Colts presented little resistance for an offense that consists of Maurice Jones-Drew and little else.

The Chiefs have surprised most football fans with their fast start. However, their wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined 3 wins between them. Matt Cassel’s numbers look rather pedestrian (4 TDs 3 INTS 494 YDS) and the Chiefs have allowed their opponents to out gain them by 300 yards in the air thus far. That doesn’t matter. This team will not win games throwing the ball. The Chiefs have 2 top tier running backs in Jammal Charles and Thomas Jones and a versatile special teamer/receiver in Dexter McCluster. Their offensive strength plays well to Indianapolis’ defensive weakness.

Romeo Crennel knows manning well from his days in New England. The Patriots were the hump Manning could not get over and Romeo Crennel played a large part in that. Crennel now holds the same position with Kansas City. Manning will get his, but Crennel should have enough up his sleeve to delay the Colts’ offensive onslaught. The Colts will win this game, but the Chiefs should keep things interesting for most of this game. I’ll take the Chiefs to cover (-7.5) and the Colts to win.

ERIC'S PICK: CHIEFS +7.5

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Saints have not looked like the defending Super Bowl Champs thus far in 2010. They have beaten San Fran, Carolina and Minnesota by a combined total of 10 points. The Saints rank 30^th in rushing, lost Reggie Bush to injury and have a hobbled Pierre Thomas. We just have not seen the same offensive fire for an entire game out of this team. Luckily, the Arizona Cardinals are on the menu.

The Cardinals benched perpetual disappointment, Derek Anderson, last week in favor of a rookie, Max Hall. I don’t think this was the situation Coach Ken Wisenhunt had in mind entering preseason with an open quarterback competition. The Cardinals have a few offensive pieces in Tim Hightower and Larry Fitzgerald. Hightower is a solid situational back and Fitzgerald needs a QB that can get him the ball so their talent goes mostly wasted on this squad. Former first round pick Beanie Wells only has 19 carries this season, but he is averaging a shade under 5 yards per carry. So there is a bright spot in the ground game.

The Cardinals are coming off of a 41-10 beat down at the hands of San Diego last week. I see another obliteration coming down the pike on Sunday. The Cardinals hit rock bottom and the Saints’ offense finds its mojo again. The Saints are due for a breakout performance and I don’t think a rookie QB on a struggling team will answer the challenge. The Saints cover (-7) and roll the Cards.

PICK: NEW ORLEANS -7

Eric's Picks - Week 4

Baltimore Ravens (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh love fest is in full swing. If this game were on Monday night, I’d set the over/under on the use of the phrase “smashmouth football” at 5,000. Everyone will talk about the defenses in this game but the integral aspect to either team’s success lies with the quarterbacks.

The Steelers destroyed a 2-0 Tampa team last week. Charlie Batch was fantastic. Why was the battle for the opening day QB between Dennis Dixon and Byron Leftwich? Rashard Mendenhall is a beast. Willie Parker did not suit this team. The Steelers need a powerful workhorse back for their style of play. Mendenhall fits that bill perfectly. The emergence of Mike Wallace as a deep threat compliment to the always-reliable Hines Ward gives Pittsburgh a well-rounded offense that keeps the defense fresh. The key to this game is Charlie Batch. If he can deliver the deep ball accurately, the Ravens spotty secondary will flounder. Mendenhall met Ray Lewis in the 2 gap his rookie year. The meeting Mendenhall with a shattered collar bone. I see a yeoman’s effort from Mendenhall. He will get the carries and may rack up a TD, but the yards will not pile up. The Ravens will have to respect the run, and that’s the point.

We all know about Ray Lewis and company. The defense will do its part, it always does in spite of a lackluster secondary. The defense won the opener over the Jets thanks in large part due to their ability to force Sanchez into poor decisions. They will attempt to do the same against Charlie Batch. The real question for this Ravens team: Who is Joe Flacco? Is he the guy who threw for 3 TD’s with a 128 QB rating in week 3 or is he the guy who threw for 150 yards, 4 picks, with a 23.8 rating in week 2? The physical tools are obviously there, the Ravens have put solid weapons around him and the star of the movie “The Blind Side” protects his blind side. Flacco lies somewhere in between the two extremes. The defense is not good enough to win games as they did a decade ago. Flacco has to be more than a Trent Dilfer. However, in three games thus far his numbers were great against a bad Cleveland defense, atrocious against a good Cincinnati D, and uninspiring versus an excellent Jets squad. The Steelers D is either on the same level or better than the Jets.

According to my Baltimore source, the Ravens have lost 10 of their last 14 games at Heinz Field, including the last 4. The Ravens last won in Pittsburgh with the late Steve McNair at the helm. Taking Troy Polamalu and the terrible towels over the Ravens looks like the smart bet. I’m not a smart man. The Ravens pull off the upset thanks in large part to consistent pressure on Charlie Batch and just enough offense to squeak out a W.

PICK: Ravens 17 - Steelers 16

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3.5)

Last week in my Dallas/Texans pick I made two fatal flaws. 1.) I went against my team, the Cowboys, in an emotional fit thinking they may never win again and 2.) I discounted the fact the Texans were coming off two emotional wins while the Cowboys were playing a back-against-the-wall-nobody-believes-in-us game. The Giants fall directly in the latter category. The Giants have outgained their opponents so far this year but turnovers and mental mistakes have plagued the team. Eli is not Peyton but when he’s on, he’s very good. The Bears have struggled to cover and the Giants have a nice set of receivers in Nicks, Smith and Manningham. Eli will be able to move the ball through the air, but must protect the ball. Manning has 6 interceptions thus far (only had 14 in 2009). The Giants running game was known as Earth, Wind, and Fire a couple of years ago. However, Wind (Derrick Ward) committed grand larceny in Tampa Bay and Earth(Brandon Jacobs) became Mars (lifeless). Fire (Amahad Bradshaw) remains frisky but will surely struggle against the stout front seven of the Bears. However, Bradshaw will do just enough to keep the offense balanced and force the Bears to back off the blitz.

The Cutler and Martz combination has been a success so far despite struggling with protection at times. Martz successfully adjusts the drops and routes to counter the defense, which opens up the deep game. Matt Forte, a poor man’s Marshall Faulk, is the key to this offense. He plays a vital role in establishing the run game but his importance to the team is in his versatility as a receiver. Look for Martz to use Forte to counter the pass rush of Mathias Kiwanunka (4 sack in ’10) and Justin Tuck.

The Jay Cutler roller-coaster is riding high right now but what goes up must come down. Cutler's number will reflect a better game than he actually has. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin win this back-against-the-wall-nobody-believes-in-us game.

PICK: New York Giants 27 - Chicago Bears 20

Eric's Locks of Week 3 NFL

Eric's Locks of the Week
Record ATS (3-0)

Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Houston Texans

The Cowboys have not scored consistently in two years. The Texans are all about offense. I feel the Cowboys D will hang but they have a tendency to allow big plays. With Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Arian Foster in the fold big plays are bound to happen. Vegas keeps giving the Cowboys to much credit just because of their popularity. The Texans are for real and look to be a serious contender. Matt Schaub and company will eviscerate the thin secondary. The Cowboys are also giving up more in the return game than any other team, look for Jacoby Jones to have a huge day. The Cowboys are a .500 team at best. So long Wade, thanks for the memories. The Texans are 3 point favorites, take the Texans to win by at least a touchdown.

PICK: TEXANS (-3)

New York Jets (+2 ½)@ Miami Dolphins

Mark Sanchez looked great against a questionable New England Secondary. I don’t care. I’m not sold on the Sanchize just yet. The Dolphins are a prototypical Parcell's built team. They’re well coached, fundamentally sound, and polished. The Jets are loaded with talent but in building that talent came with a cost. The team has more than a few head cases (ex Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes) and that type of drama always holds a team back from reaching its full potential. I love the Dolphins to cover and possibly win this one. Without Kris Jenkins, the Jets are more vulnerable to the run and we all know the Dolphins are going to commit to the running game. Revis is out this week and next. Brandon Marshall should continue his development in this offense. We all saw what Blodin did to Cromartie is week 1. Marshall is a faster version of Boldin. Take the ‘Fins to win this one outright.

PICK: DOLPHINS -2.5

Eric's LOCK of the Week

Season Record: 0-0

Week 1 LOCK

Detroit Lions (-6.5) @ Chicago Bears


The Bears hope to reinvigorate their offense year by bringing in Mike Martz. Martz established his reputation as an offensive guru from his days heading up the St. Louis Rams’ "Greatest Show on Turf." That was about 10 years ago and since that time Martz has delivered less than stellar results. Martz’s offense calls for seven step drops, which requires a formidable offensive line, something Bears do not have. Conversely, the Lions added Suh and Vanden Bosch to their defensive front. Cutler is about to take a beating if he does not get the ball out of his hands quickly. Under duress Cutler has a tendency to rely upon his arm to thread the needle with his passes. In 2009, this over-reliance led to 26 interceptions. Offensively, the Lions added Jahvid Best and Nate Burleson to compliment Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. The Lions are no’t about to set the world on fire, but their stock is rising.

The Bears are 6 ½ point favorites while the games total is 44 ½ . The Lions will cover and I’m taking the under. This pick runs counter to all historical evidence. The Lions have almost got that Matt Millen stink off of them and they're going to win a few games and pull themselves out of the NFC north cellar.

PICK: Lions +6.5 Under 44.5