Danny's Divisional Selections

Green Bay Packers +3 @ Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan is 20-2 when playing at home in Atlanta. How do you pick against that? I see a few reasons why I believe the Packers can win this game on the road.

1. Aaron Rodgers has played exceptional all season, winning big games and coming up with big plays. Winning in Philly last week against a terrific young Eagles teams was very impressive. Rodgers is efficient, accurate, and head smart. He can control a game and remain poised in all situations. All of his players trust and believe in him, and that is pivotal to any teams success.

2. Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers have come up with terrific game plans all season. Capers has transformed this Green Bay defense and has successfully turned them into a 3-4 D. Utilizing Clay Matthews on every down is crucial to this defense. Woodson coming off the corner on a 3rd down blitz or a run blitz has caused serious issues for opposing teams. And lets take our hats off to BJ Raji on the d-line. The kid has performed.

Fact of the matter is this: If the Falcons run the ball successfully they win the game. Turnovers are crucial for both teams, but the ground game is huge for Atlanta. Green Bay can win being 1-dimensional, Atlanta cannot.

Packers shut down the run of the Falcons and win this game in Atlanta.

PICK: GREEN BAY 27 - Atlanta 23



Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The yellow towels will be going crazy in Steel City. And the players will battle all 60 minutes.

What a great game this will be as two of the best teams in the NFL will battle to reach the AFC-Championship game next weekend.

Advantage goes to the home team. Big Ben is 6-0 since 2007 (reg season and playoffs) against the Ravens. He just flat out plays good football in BIG GAMES.

The defenses will shut the offenses down, which team can make a big play in the fourth quarter to set up a winning drive. I like Big Ben in this situation as the Steelers come from behind in the fourth quarter to win.

PICK: Steelers 20 - Ravens 16


Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -10

The Cinderella Story for Pete Carroll is over. The Seahawks will not have enough to beat the Chicago Bears on Soldier Field.

Clear edge goes to the rested defensive line of the Chicago Bears. The reason the Seahawks won last week was due to the fact that New Orleans did not put any pressure on Hasselbeck. With Peppers forcing him out of the pocket all game, the Bears sending Briggs on blitz's and Tillman creating havoc in the secondary, this is a no-brainer.

Cutler will have a solid performance and will manage the game very well. Forte having success on the ground, setting up play-action passes will play dividends come the third and fourth quarter for the Bears to put this game away.

I don't see the Seahawks keeping up in this game. Bears win.

PICK: CHICAGO 24 - Seattle 9



New York Jets @ New England Patriots -9

All the talk from Rex Ryan better payoff for him and the Jets because they will be in for a tough game against the Patriots.
New England will be ready to play as this was like a bye week for them. This is exactly the type of matchup I love Tom Brady to have success in. The Jets are talking trash on him all week, meanwhile, the Jets barely escape out of Indianapolis last week.

Talk is cheap from the Jets this week, I don't even like them keeping it close. If the Patriots are able to slow the Jets run game, which I expect them to do, the Jets will be forced to put the game on the shoulders of Mark Sanchez. Now would you rather have Sanchez or Brady? Exactly.

If the Jets had a top 15 quarterback behind center, I would have my money on them to win the Super Bowl. They have a great defense and a great running game, but the lack of talent and experience at quarterback will significantly hurt the Jets once again and this year they will fall one game short of where they were last year.

PICK: Patriots 34 - Jets 17

Eric's Divisional Round Locks

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan’s record at home is nothing short of stellar. An impressive regular season winning percentage means little in the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers thrived in his first few playoff appearances. Last year Rodger’s defense failed him against Arizona. I felt this season, his running game would subvert a Packers playoff run. James Starks likely ran his way into a contract next season regardless of the outcome in Atlanta. If this guy is for real, the Packers are my favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. However, it's likely Starks caught lightening in a bottle. Starks ran his way onto the scouting report Sunday and the Falcons will not be caught off guard.

Against the Packers last week, the Eagles only gave McCoy 16 carries. The Falcons will have a much stronger commitment to the run game. Michael Turner may not set the world on fire, but he’ll keep Green Bay honest, but keeping them honest will not be enough. They’ll need an effective running game to help put points on the board.

Atlanta has been the most consistent team in the NFC. However, the Packers are peaking at the right time. Pack wins by at least a field goal.

PICK: PACKERS +3

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Chicago Bears

Matt Hasselbeck once took the Seahawks all the way to a Super Bowl. In the years since, he’s worn down with age and injury. He found a little of his former self last weekend. If he stays upright, gets protection, and gets a little support from Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might just get to .500 on the year.

Unfortunately, it's not likely Matt survives the day. Peppers had a renaissance in Chicago this season and the Pro Bowler will face a rookie left tackle. Hasselbeck will not play the entire game. Either due to injury or due to ineffective play, we will have a Charlie Whitehurst sighting. Whitehurst can’t be leaned upon for big wins. He’s a career backup Seattle hopes will suddenly morph into Hasselbeck’s successor.

I don’t trust Jay Cutler at all. His arm is electric but he’s stubborn and has developed very little as a player (mentally) over his tenure in the NFL. However, I love Forte against the Seahawks and feel the Bears ground game runs all over Seattle. The Bears win and move on but Cutler’s erratic play keeps the Bears from running away with it and Seattle gets a back door cover with Chuck Whitehurst at the helm.

PICK: SEATTLE +10

New York Jets (+9) @ New England Patriots

The Jets took a beating the last time they went into Foxboro and the Patriots look like the class of the league. Revis can’t focus on just one receiver. If he takes Wes Welker or Deion Branch out of the game, it means little to the Patriots. Their emergence as an unstoppable offense hinges on their ability to go anywhere with the ball. Unlike the Eagles, who have some of the best athletes in the NFL who can engulf a defense with their speed, the Patriots have adequate athletes who play smarter than you do. They have no weak spots on offense. For the first time since Corey Dillon’s first season with the team, the Patriots have a ground game. The combination of Green-Ellis and Woodhead combined for almost 1600 rushing yards this season. Antonio Cromartie ran his mouth all week about hating Tom Brady. Cromartie may find himself feeling something worse than hate after Sunday because he’s likely to be on the wrong end of many of Tom Brady passes. Can the Jets’ pass rush get to Brady and throw him off his game? Doubtful. The Jets need to blitz to generate an effective pass rush, which means letting Brady’s receivers work in man coverage. The rookie tight end tandem of Gronkowski and Hernandez are poised for a big day against the Jet’s safeties and their nickel corner.

The Pats have invested heavily through the draft in their secondary. While they have shown promise, New England finished 30^th in the NFL against the pass. If Sanchez can find a rhythm the Jets’ receivers could overwhelm the young New England secondary. However, Sanchez is far from a reliable quarterback at this point in his career. I also feel confident the Patriots will find a way to keep him guessing. Sanchez threw 3 picks in the Monday night debacle the last time these two teams met. In games where the temperature was 40 degrees or below at kickoff, Sanchez has thrown 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Maybe the AFC East isn’t the best place for a guy who loves playing in warm weather. With all that said, I like Holmes in this game. I don’t think the Pats can find a way to bottle him up for four quarters. No way the Jets win, the question is “Can they cover?”

I say yes. The Jets have too much confidence and speed to get run over again. They lose the game but find a way to cover.

PICK: JETS +9

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I have trouble coming up with anything original to say for this game. Two tough teams, good running games, great defenses, big quarterbacks, a few criminals and a million football clichés. Instead rambling on lets try something different:

Keys for the Steelers:

Mike Wallace. Hines Ward is the name but Wallace is actually the best receiver on this team. He’s scary fast and runs great routes. Ward is little more than a possession receiver and great blocker. Wallace should put the fear of God in the Ravens secondary.

Contain Ray Rice. The Ravens have 3 very good possession receivers but lack any real speed. If the Ravens struggle to get Rice going the offense will move at a snail’s pace. Flacco went into KC and won a big playoff game but can he do it in Pittsburg?

Keys For the Ravens:

Ed Reed. The Ravens secondary is not good. However, with Ed Reed is a ball-hawk that keeps teams from abusing them deep. He’ll often find a way to make at least one game changing play. If he loses focus due to the fateful loss of his brother, the Ravens will surely suffer.

Joe Flacco. I’ve written several times this year about Flacco. Say what you will about Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata but as Joe Flacco goes so goes the Ravens. He threw for two TD’s and over 250 yards against KC last week. However, he was also sacked 4 times. Can Flacco endure and throw accurately in the face of the Steeler’s pressure? All the kids at Ropewalk sure hope so.

Lock of the Week: Against all of my intuition, I am taking Joe Flacco to pull off an improbable upset win in Pittsburgh. Anquan Boldin earns some of that fat contract and Ray Rice breaks a few big ones. Joe gets hit all day but avoids the big mistakes and finds those big possession receivers moving not a snails pace but a turtles. Slow and steady wins this race.

PICK: RAVENS +3 in an outright win

Eric's Locks of Wild-Card Saturday

New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Seattle Seahawks

Pierre Thomas isn’t that good, Chris Ivory is worse and they’re both on IR for the Saints. Reggie Bush and Julius Jones will attempt to hold down the running game for the Saints. Jones is a smoker (or at least he was as a rookie with Dallas), sure so was the Golden Boy Paul Horning, but that was a different day. Fortunately, the Saints are playing the Seahawks. Most NFL fans are aghast (rightfully so) that Seattle is 7-9 and hosting the defending champs. The Saints are going to win. They’re better in all facets of the game. Hasselbeck’s been a liability for two years but he’s a much safer option than Chuck Whitehurst. Chuck will play in this game, and it won’t be pretty. Seattle makes the thing interesting for the first 2 quarters with good defense and a time eating offense (but gets little more than a field goal or 2). The Saints will win. The running back issue makes this and interesting play. Seattle’s defense looked great shutting down the Rams and most are discounting the fact the NFC West was terrible. I refuse to take an underdog unless I think there’s at least a 10% chance they’ll win outright. Sean Peyton comes out in the second half and gets frisky. This thing ends in a blow out and the Saints win in a route and cover.

PICK- SAINTS -11

New York Jets (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts

ESPN’s Bill Simmons used a bad Colts team and good Pats team as an opportunity to proclaim Brady’s greatness with a level of passive aggressiveness the likes of which sports writers have never seen. I love Simmons, but he constantly references the Pats receiving corps like their autistic. Look Simmons, you have 2 great prospects at tight end, Deion Branch floundered in Seattle (see every other Seahawks receiver since a young Joey Galloway), and “the little white guy that could” Wes Welker. Manning makes decent receivers great and practice team guys pro bowlers. When he had a solid route runner (Harrison) he set records and when he had undersized white guys (Collie) he put up 4,000 yard seasons. They’re both great and both transcendent. It’s just the passive aggressive crap that drives me up the wall. Manning will play well. He’s got home field, the dome, the turf, and the reputation. However, there’s little else you can count on with the Colts. The Jets, on the other hand, have a handful of sure things -not to play great, but to play well. Essentially, playing the Colts to cover in the game is an affirmation of Manning’s greatness and playing the Jets is an assertion of the preseason hype. I don’t buy into the Jets but I also feel there’s a much better than 10% chance the Jets win this thing and Manning has a mini-meltdown. Take the Jets to cover and likely pull the upset. Any Given Sunday, it’s a game of inches but for Rex Ryan, its feet that are all around him. Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week.

PICK- JETS +3

Danny's Thanksgiving Day Selections

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (+7.5) - The Lions play considerably better at home, this is their Super Bowl game, and this is nationally televised so you know they will play their hearts out in the effort to show the nation that the Lions are a team on the rise and has some potential in upcoming seasons. That being said, they are playing Brady and Belichick so you know its a tough game, but this has back door cover written all over it. Lions cover on a late big play to Megatron.

PICK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 27 - DETROIT LIONS 21


New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Dallas Cowboys - What happens today if the Cowboys get behind by two scores? We'll find out today. I think the return of Reggie Bush will spark new life in the Saints huddle, a Saints huddle that has been rollin' as of late. Drew Brees has answered the questions about his inconsistent start with very strong play in his last three starts. Kitna and the Cowboys have played well in their last two games, both under interim Head Coach Jason Garrett, but the road hits an obstacle this week at home. The Boys beat the Giants due in large part to two turnovers in the first 5 minutes, then they go and beat the Lions last week (the Lions haven't won a road game during Obama's presidency). Cowboys get a tough test against the Saints this week and they do not pass it.

PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 - DALLAS COWBOYS 24


Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-9) - The Bengals come into New Jersey as a 9-point road dog against the Jets and its a short week after Sunday's brutal loss to the Bills. Jets have played close game after close game, donning them the nickname "Cardiac Jets". Today will be different. Bengals have serious locker room issues and once the Jets put up quick scores the Bengals will throw in the towel. I can seriously see either TO or Ochocinco get benched today due to sideline behavior, and I also anticipate seeing Jesse Palmer getting a few snaps today. Jets win a blowout.

PICK: NEW YORK JETS 30 - CINCINNATI BENGALS 13

Eric's Lock of the Week

Eric's Record (11-4-2 ATS)

The Monday Night Special:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+3)

The Redskins took Michael Vick out of the game early in game 1. Vick returns to avenge the loss, and he will do just that. The Redskins have overachieved this year with new management as well as a new quarterback. However, part of that new management team (Mike Shanahan) undermined the quarterback last week and had the audacity to claim McNabb’s benching resulted from poor conditioning. Perhaps Shanahan wanted to give McNabb something to think about other than his pending Eagles rematch. He surely doesn’t think Rex Grossman gives them a better chance to win, I mean, he has seen Grossman play, hasn’t he? The Redskins have found a place for Albert Haynesworth in their modified 3-4 scheme making it difficult for teams up the middle. DeAngelo Hall came into the league overrated, was exposed in Oakland and summarily released, and now finds himself once again considered among the upper tier of cornerbacks in the league. Washington plays enough defense to win games (2 home losses this season both by 3 points), but I don’t think they can account for Vick’s mobility. In round 1, they did so by breaking a few of his ribs, but that’s unlikely to occur again. The Eagles have too many weapons, Maclin, Jackson, McCoy and Celek are as good as they get at the skill positions. And Vick's relationship with DeSean Jackson is phenomenal as he is 21-31 for 400+yards and 3 TD's. Throw in a freakish athlete like Vick at quarterback and you’ve got enough to go all the way. I’ve been waiting for Vick to revert back into his Atlanta form, making poor choices, looking to run too early but that simply hasn’t happened. In game 1, the Eagles turned into a different team when Kolb came in. It threw the pace and timing of the offense off and they never rebounded. Despite the poor showing, they still had a chance to win it at the game’s close. McNabb loses round 2 and the Eagles cover.

PICK: EAGLES -3

Danny's Week 7 Selections

Pittsburgh -3 @ Miami - Steelers 26 - Dolphins 20

Cincinnati +3.5 @ Atlanta - Bengals 20 - Falcons 17

Jacksonville @ Kansas City -9 - Chiefs 27 - Jaguars 7

Philadelphia +3 @ Tennessee - Eagles 24 - Titans 20

Washington @ Chicago -3 - Bears 27 - Redskins 17

Cleveland @ New Orleans -14 - Saints 31 - Browns 13

Buffalo +14 @ Baltimore - Ravens 27 - Bills 17

San Francisco -3 @ Carolina - 49ers 24 - Panthers 20

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay -3 - Buccaneers 27 - Rams 16

Arizona @ Seattle -6.5 - Seahawks 30 - Cardinals 17

New England @ San Diego -3 - Chargers 31 - Patriots 24

Oakland @ Denver -8 - Broncos 24 - Raiders 12

Minnesota +3 @ Green Bay - Vikings 24 - Packers 23

New York Giants @ Dallas -3.5 - Cowboys 34 - Giants 27

Eric's Week 7 LOCKS

ERIC'S RECORD - 7-3-1 ATS

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

Todd Bouman is the expected starter for this game. Bouman, 38 years young, last played in 2005 for the Saints where he amassed 7 picks and just 2 touchdowns. Not that David Garrard strikes fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators, but he's markedly better than Bouman. Romeo Crennel's defense will load the line to limit Jones-Drew and force Bouman to beat them. The Chiefs have the number 1 rushing offense entering this week and face a Jags D that ranks 20th against the run. I don't think they will ask Matt Cassel to do anything but hand the ball off and play it safe in the passing game. Rookie tight end Tony Moeaki continues to develop as a player in this league. The combination of Moeaki and Dwayne Bowe give the passing game just enough to be effective. Look for a big day out of Jammal Charles and a solid win for the Chiefs.

PICK: KANSAS CITY -9


New England (+3) @ San Diego Chargers

San Diego lost a lot last week. The Chargers lost Malcolm Floyd, Antonio Gates and Legedu Naanee to injury. Floyd will not play and the other 2 are game time decisions. Patrick Crayton filled in nicely last week. Crayton was the Cowboys' most consistent receiver over the past 3 years and despite being a bit older is a great route runner and a consummate professional. He will not provide Phillip Rivers with the deep threat he normally has, but he'll give him an option in the mid range passing game. Chargers' running back Ryan Matthews did not become the work horse head coach Norv Turner claimed he'd be prior to the season. Mike Tolbert has been just as effective and a much better red zone option. Matthews continues to struggle with a high ankle sprain and despite Rivers putting up good numbers, this offense will not have a good day.

The Patriots, on the other hand, enter the game with a rejuvenated Deion Branch headlining a no name receiving crew that appears to be hitting its stride. The Chargers have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Brady looks like he's in mid season form. The Patriots beat a very good Baltimore team and I think they keep rolling. The Chargers are (-3) underdogs and if they were at full strength, I'd take them in a moment. However, injuries will put more pressure on Rivers as well as the running game, and as a Ryan Matthews fantasy owner, I know the rushing attack isn't very good.

PICK: NEW ENGLAND +3

Danny's Week 6 Selections

Seattle @ Chicago (-6.5) - Bears 28 - Seattle 13

San Diego (-8) @ St. Louis - Chargers 34 - Rams 20

Kansas City @ Houston (-5) - Texans 27 - Chiefs 17

Baltimore @ New England (-3) - Patriots 27 - Ravens 24

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+5) - Saints 20 - Buccaneers 17

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-3) - Eagles 24 - Falcons 20

Detroit (+10) @ New York Giants - Giants 27 - Lions 23

Miami (+3.5) @ Green Bay - Dolphins 27 - 20

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-14) - Steelers 31 - Browns 6

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Denver - Jets 24 - Broncos 17

Oakland (+7) @ San Francisco - 49ers 17 - Raiders 16

Dallas @ Minnesota (-1.5) - Vikings 24 - Cowboys 20

Indianapolis @ Washington (+3.5) - Colts 27 - Redskins 26

Tennessee (-3) @ Jacksonville - Titans 28 - Jaguars 17

Eric's Locks of Week 6

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ New England Patriots

The Patriots surprised many football fans when they traded Randy Moss. We all know Moss had reverted into his natural state of being a pain in the ass but his absence leaves the Pats without a deep threat to take pressure from their possession receivers. Special teams ace Ben Tate must have truly impressed Belichick enough to provide the confidence to let Moss go. The Pats look like they are planning for bigger things in the years to come. They have acquired 7 picks in the first 4 rounds (actually 8 but they traded a 4^th rounder for the corpse of Deon Branch). Deep down, Belichick knows 2010 will not be a championship season for New England and letting Moss go was an admission of that. The Patriots cannot run the ball. Period. Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris will not strike fear into the hearts of any defensive unit, let alone the vaunted Baltimore Raven front seven. The Patriots will attempt to spread the Ravens out and throw against their secondary all day. This Ravens unit is too good to have a great deal of success being one-dimensional.

Belichick will have some trick up his hoodie for Flacco. Joe Flacco looked great the past two weeks, including a very impressive drive to defeat the Steelers. However, Flacco still makes mistakes and I think he’ll make a couple in this game. However, I think the combination of Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin will overwhelm the Pats’ D. The Ravens pull out another impressive victory on the road.

PICK: RAVENS +3

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans inexplicably lost to the Cardinals last weekend. The Super Bowl hangover is in full swing and the Saints may lose the division to the Falcons. The loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush means the loss of their rushing attack. Thomas may come back this week but his status is far from certain. Bush did not put up great stats but he added a dimension opposing defenses had to plan and account for. The Bucs have been a little frisky this year, Josh Johnson has put together a few surprising victories without a viable running game. Did you know Cadillac Williams was still alive? The Bus have a solid young foundation but their not on the same level as the Saints. I think the Saints bounce back and win this one by at least a touchdown. Johnson has a lot of promise, but I’ll take Brees and his corps of receivers to put up a nice score down in Tampa.

PICK: SAINTS -4.5