Danny's Divisional Selections

Green Bay Packers +3 @ Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan is 20-2 when playing at home in Atlanta. How do you pick against that? I see a few reasons why I believe the Packers can win this game on the road.

1. Aaron Rodgers has played exceptional all season, winning big games and coming up with big plays. Winning in Philly last week against a terrific young Eagles teams was very impressive. Rodgers is efficient, accurate, and head smart. He can control a game and remain poised in all situations. All of his players trust and believe in him, and that is pivotal to any teams success.

2. Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers have come up with terrific game plans all season. Capers has transformed this Green Bay defense and has successfully turned them into a 3-4 D. Utilizing Clay Matthews on every down is crucial to this defense. Woodson coming off the corner on a 3rd down blitz or a run blitz has caused serious issues for opposing teams. And lets take our hats off to BJ Raji on the d-line. The kid has performed.

Fact of the matter is this: If the Falcons run the ball successfully they win the game. Turnovers are crucial for both teams, but the ground game is huge for Atlanta. Green Bay can win being 1-dimensional, Atlanta cannot.

Packers shut down the run of the Falcons and win this game in Atlanta.

PICK: GREEN BAY 27 - Atlanta 23



Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The yellow towels will be going crazy in Steel City. And the players will battle all 60 minutes.

What a great game this will be as two of the best teams in the NFL will battle to reach the AFC-Championship game next weekend.

Advantage goes to the home team. Big Ben is 6-0 since 2007 (reg season and playoffs) against the Ravens. He just flat out plays good football in BIG GAMES.

The defenses will shut the offenses down, which team can make a big play in the fourth quarter to set up a winning drive. I like Big Ben in this situation as the Steelers come from behind in the fourth quarter to win.

PICK: Steelers 20 - Ravens 16


Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears -10

The Cinderella Story for Pete Carroll is over. The Seahawks will not have enough to beat the Chicago Bears on Soldier Field.

Clear edge goes to the rested defensive line of the Chicago Bears. The reason the Seahawks won last week was due to the fact that New Orleans did not put any pressure on Hasselbeck. With Peppers forcing him out of the pocket all game, the Bears sending Briggs on blitz's and Tillman creating havoc in the secondary, this is a no-brainer.

Cutler will have a solid performance and will manage the game very well. Forte having success on the ground, setting up play-action passes will play dividends come the third and fourth quarter for the Bears to put this game away.

I don't see the Seahawks keeping up in this game. Bears win.

PICK: CHICAGO 24 - Seattle 9



New York Jets @ New England Patriots -9

All the talk from Rex Ryan better payoff for him and the Jets because they will be in for a tough game against the Patriots.
New England will be ready to play as this was like a bye week for them. This is exactly the type of matchup I love Tom Brady to have success in. The Jets are talking trash on him all week, meanwhile, the Jets barely escape out of Indianapolis last week.

Talk is cheap from the Jets this week, I don't even like them keeping it close. If the Patriots are able to slow the Jets run game, which I expect them to do, the Jets will be forced to put the game on the shoulders of Mark Sanchez. Now would you rather have Sanchez or Brady? Exactly.

If the Jets had a top 15 quarterback behind center, I would have my money on them to win the Super Bowl. They have a great defense and a great running game, but the lack of talent and experience at quarterback will significantly hurt the Jets once again and this year they will fall one game short of where they were last year.

PICK: Patriots 34 - Jets 17

Eric's Divisional Round Locks

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan’s record at home is nothing short of stellar. An impressive regular season winning percentage means little in the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers thrived in his first few playoff appearances. Last year Rodger’s defense failed him against Arizona. I felt this season, his running game would subvert a Packers playoff run. James Starks likely ran his way into a contract next season regardless of the outcome in Atlanta. If this guy is for real, the Packers are my favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. However, it's likely Starks caught lightening in a bottle. Starks ran his way onto the scouting report Sunday and the Falcons will not be caught off guard.

Against the Packers last week, the Eagles only gave McCoy 16 carries. The Falcons will have a much stronger commitment to the run game. Michael Turner may not set the world on fire, but he’ll keep Green Bay honest, but keeping them honest will not be enough. They’ll need an effective running game to help put points on the board.

Atlanta has been the most consistent team in the NFC. However, the Packers are peaking at the right time. Pack wins by at least a field goal.

PICK: PACKERS +3

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Chicago Bears

Matt Hasselbeck once took the Seahawks all the way to a Super Bowl. In the years since, he’s worn down with age and injury. He found a little of his former self last weekend. If he stays upright, gets protection, and gets a little support from Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks might just get to .500 on the year.

Unfortunately, it's not likely Matt survives the day. Peppers had a renaissance in Chicago this season and the Pro Bowler will face a rookie left tackle. Hasselbeck will not play the entire game. Either due to injury or due to ineffective play, we will have a Charlie Whitehurst sighting. Whitehurst can’t be leaned upon for big wins. He’s a career backup Seattle hopes will suddenly morph into Hasselbeck’s successor.

I don’t trust Jay Cutler at all. His arm is electric but he’s stubborn and has developed very little as a player (mentally) over his tenure in the NFL. However, I love Forte against the Seahawks and feel the Bears ground game runs all over Seattle. The Bears win and move on but Cutler’s erratic play keeps the Bears from running away with it and Seattle gets a back door cover with Chuck Whitehurst at the helm.

PICK: SEATTLE +10

New York Jets (+9) @ New England Patriots

The Jets took a beating the last time they went into Foxboro and the Patriots look like the class of the league. Revis can’t focus on just one receiver. If he takes Wes Welker or Deion Branch out of the game, it means little to the Patriots. Their emergence as an unstoppable offense hinges on their ability to go anywhere with the ball. Unlike the Eagles, who have some of the best athletes in the NFL who can engulf a defense with their speed, the Patriots have adequate athletes who play smarter than you do. They have no weak spots on offense. For the first time since Corey Dillon’s first season with the team, the Patriots have a ground game. The combination of Green-Ellis and Woodhead combined for almost 1600 rushing yards this season. Antonio Cromartie ran his mouth all week about hating Tom Brady. Cromartie may find himself feeling something worse than hate after Sunday because he’s likely to be on the wrong end of many of Tom Brady passes. Can the Jets’ pass rush get to Brady and throw him off his game? Doubtful. The Jets need to blitz to generate an effective pass rush, which means letting Brady’s receivers work in man coverage. The rookie tight end tandem of Gronkowski and Hernandez are poised for a big day against the Jet’s safeties and their nickel corner.

The Pats have invested heavily through the draft in their secondary. While they have shown promise, New England finished 30^th in the NFL against the pass. If Sanchez can find a rhythm the Jets’ receivers could overwhelm the young New England secondary. However, Sanchez is far from a reliable quarterback at this point in his career. I also feel confident the Patriots will find a way to keep him guessing. Sanchez threw 3 picks in the Monday night debacle the last time these two teams met. In games where the temperature was 40 degrees or below at kickoff, Sanchez has thrown 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Maybe the AFC East isn’t the best place for a guy who loves playing in warm weather. With all that said, I like Holmes in this game. I don’t think the Pats can find a way to bottle him up for four quarters. No way the Jets win, the question is “Can they cover?”

I say yes. The Jets have too much confidence and speed to get run over again. They lose the game but find a way to cover.

PICK: JETS +9

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I have trouble coming up with anything original to say for this game. Two tough teams, good running games, great defenses, big quarterbacks, a few criminals and a million football clichés. Instead rambling on lets try something different:

Keys for the Steelers:

Mike Wallace. Hines Ward is the name but Wallace is actually the best receiver on this team. He’s scary fast and runs great routes. Ward is little more than a possession receiver and great blocker. Wallace should put the fear of God in the Ravens secondary.

Contain Ray Rice. The Ravens have 3 very good possession receivers but lack any real speed. If the Ravens struggle to get Rice going the offense will move at a snail’s pace. Flacco went into KC and won a big playoff game but can he do it in Pittsburg?

Keys For the Ravens:

Ed Reed. The Ravens secondary is not good. However, with Ed Reed is a ball-hawk that keeps teams from abusing them deep. He’ll often find a way to make at least one game changing play. If he loses focus due to the fateful loss of his brother, the Ravens will surely suffer.

Joe Flacco. I’ve written several times this year about Flacco. Say what you will about Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata but as Joe Flacco goes so goes the Ravens. He threw for two TD’s and over 250 yards against KC last week. However, he was also sacked 4 times. Can Flacco endure and throw accurately in the face of the Steeler’s pressure? All the kids at Ropewalk sure hope so.

Lock of the Week: Against all of my intuition, I am taking Joe Flacco to pull off an improbable upset win in Pittsburgh. Anquan Boldin earns some of that fat contract and Ray Rice breaks a few big ones. Joe gets hit all day but avoids the big mistakes and finds those big possession receivers moving not a snails pace but a turtles. Slow and steady wins this race.

PICK: RAVENS +3 in an outright win

Danny's Wild Card Saturday Selection

New Orleans Sains -11 @ Seattle Seahawks

Sean Payton will use his experience from last season and fully dismantle the youth and inexperience of the Seahawks. The Seahawks won't be able to get to Brees for sacks as Brees will use the 3-step drop quick passing game and pick apart Seattle's secondary. Even without Thomas and Ivory, I fully expect Jones and Bush to get 20-25 touches out of the backfield and put this game away. Takeaways will be key in this game, I give the edge to the Saints.

PICK - NEW ORLEANS 27 - Seattle 10


New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts -3

I love this matchup. This is a great chance for Peyton Manning to show the country that he is better than "the just: the best regular season quarterback in history." His time is now. He has plenty enough weapons with Tamme, Garcon, Wayne, White, and his two backs. His defense stepped up huge last week and shutdown Chris Johnson, and if they can limit big plays from the Jets backfield and force Sanchez to make throws they will be victorious. Sanchez still has issues with his shoulder injury, and I fully anticipate it affecting his accuracy. The Jets have a very tough matchup against the Colts in this game. It will be close, last team with the ball wins.

PICK: INDIANAPOLIS 24 - New York 20