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Saturday, November 19, 2011

WEEK 11 NFL PICKS

Lines according to BOOKMAKER.COM


THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Eric and Danny both had JETS -6

BUFFALO @ MIAMI -1.5


Reggie Bush came out of nowhere to redeem Miami'sacquisition and my
fantasy season. The Bills suffered a true beat down last week at the
hands ofDallas. Buffalo pulled the trigger a little early on the
Fitzpatrick, but at least he can show his face at alumni events now
that he's reached the median salary for a Harvard grad.


Eric: MIA 24 BUFF 27
Danny: MIA 26 BUFF 20*********Lock


Cincinnati @ Baltimore -6.5


Cincy showed a lot in their ability to hang with the Steelers. The
Jekyll and Hyde Ravens continue to confound everyone. They obviously
can hang with the best but can't seem to understand that games against
bad teams count too. Boumce back game for the Ravens in a nice win
over Cincy. The Bengals are a year away from making a playoff run. A
few more picks (thanks Oakland) and a key signing will put them on par
with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. I haven't been this excited about a
red headed quarterback since Jay Schroeder,and I think he was blonde.


Eric: CINCY 17 BAL 32*********Lock
Danny: Cincy 16 Balt 24


Jacksonville @ Cleveland -1

Who cares. Two offenses going nowhere, and two defenses that should
keep this game below 40 total points.


Danny & Eric: JAX 17 CLE 14

Oakland -1 @ Minnesota

The Raiders looked good last week against the reeling Chargers.
Michael Bush will get his chance as a lead back next season somewhere
else. He's played exquisitely in each opportunity given to him.
Perhaps Palmer isn't going to be the epic interception machine I'd
hoped. Even if he plays well enough to win this division, the trade
wasn't worth it. Whoever does come out of the AFC West is destined
for a first round playoff exit. I'm starting to really dig this
messyTebow thing. If he continues to win with this ugly but
entertaining brand of pro football resulting in an AFC West Crown for
the Broncos, what can the Broncos brass do? The fans will riot if
they go with a more conventional QB next year, and there's no way
teams cannot find a way to shut down this option style offense. I will
root for a Vikings win. However, the Viking secondary is depleted and
Palmer seemingly developed a nice rapport with these young Raiders
receivers. Unless Jared Allen can absolutely terrorize Palmer on just
about every pass play (a distinct possibility), the Vikings will give
up some big yards through the air and I cannot see Minnesota doing
enough to keep upaside from Peterson running rampant.

Eric: OAK 24 MINN 17************Lock
Danny: OAK 17 MINN 23 *************Lock


Dallas -7 @ Washington

Dallas is something else. You never know what to expect. The easy
choice is to take the Cowboys coming off the Bills blowout and the
Skins falling apart. It's difficult to ascertain why the Redskins
sturdy defense faltered. The Washington QB situation combined with a
few key injuries completely derailed their season. According to
reports,Grossman will start but does it really matter?

Dallas looked great last week and apparently DeMarco Murray is the
greatest thing since Emmett Smith. A running game makes the offense a
world better. Since Marion Barber circa 2009, the Cowboys have lacked
a run game. This offensive deficiency put too much pressure on Romo
to win the games through the air. He's a good piece of the puzzle but
he's not a Manning or Brady that over compensates for the lack of a
balanced offense. While I do not see Murray continuing his record
setting pace through the rest of the season, I feel this incarnation
of the Cowboys is more of a contender than any team since Wade's first
year when they finished 13-3.

On the other side of the ball, inconsistency still pervades. Dallas
allowed over 100yards rushing in each of its last 3 games. The
secondary, however, is playing well over the past two games that
played a larger role in the victories given both the Seahawks and
Bills played most of the game from behind. I still see plays where
the defense looks confused- lots ofpointing and yelling with guys
moving into position just before the snap. The Bills lone touchdown
came when a confused Dallas D only put 10 men on the field, leading to
the most painfully contrived TD celebration ever witnessed. I think
Rob Ryan shuts down Washington but it will result from Washington's
dearth of talent. Dallas' second best defensive player, LB Sean Lee,
is playing with a club on his dislocated wrist. If his injury
worsens, or 33 year old CB Terrance Newman acts his age, the defense
will enter into a free fall.


Too much offense from Dallas, too much Grossman from Washington.
Cowboys win going away…but it doesn't mean anything aside from the
fact Dallas can pad their record on the dregs of the NFL.

Eric: DAL 35 WASH 17
Danny: DAL 34 WASH 20


Carolina +7 @ Detroit

Detroit needs a running game to get back into contender's status.


Eric: CAR 24 DET 28
Danny: CAR 30 DET 34


Tampa Bay +14 1/2 @ Green Bay

This is a trap game written all over it. Green Bay is due for a let
up and they face a big Detroit game on Thanksgiving. Tampa Bay always
seems to play well in this situation. Closer than expected here.

Eric: TB 20 GB 33
Danny: TB 24 GB 30


Arizona + 10 @ San Francisco

Alex Smith is playing some good football, and he will have to make
some plays in this game as the Cardinals will put a lot of people in
the box to stop the run. I expect Vernon Davis to have a big play and
the 49ers will get the win.

Eric: ARI 20 SF 24
Danny: ARI 10 SF 20


Seattle @ St Louis -3

Seattle is coming off a big home win, while St. Louis barely escaped
Cleveland with a W.

Eric: SEA 17 STL 21
Danny: SEA 27 STL 20


Tennessee +6 @ Atlanta

Matt Ryan is too good at home to lose back to back games. Tennessee
will force the run with Chris Johnson and look to open up the
play-action passing plays. Home teams sneaks it out here.

Eric: TENN 20 ATL 24
Danny: TENN 24 ATL 28


San Diego @ Chicago -3.5

Phil Rivers has to show up and play a clean football game in Chicago
in order to give his team hope that they can overcome the media and
the bad play of late, and take down the AFC West by week 17.

Eric: SD 21 CHI 28
Danny: SD 27 CHI 28


Philadelphia @ New York -5.5

Eric is leaning towards the Giants in a big win. Danny likes the road
underdogs to show up in a big way for Andy Reid and get a win to keep
a glimmer of hope for the playoffs in the Eagles locker room.

Eric: PHI 17 NYG 31
Danny: PHI 20 NYG 17


Kansas City @ New England -15

Kansas City is a big public underdog here. New England wins but look
for the Chiefs defense to get them a cover.


Eric: KC 10 NE 35
Danny: KC 17 NE 30

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