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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Eric's Week 4 Picks


Carolina at Atlanta -7

Atlanta is getting a lot of “Best Team” hype after San Fran’s defeat at the hands of the Vikings. The passing game is as explosive as they come and they’re doing a great job of protecting Matty Ice. The running game leaves an awful lot to be desired. DUI aside, Turner’s effectiveness is waning. Running backs often experience a precipitous decline once they reach 30. Quizz Rodgers doesn’t appear to be the answer either. Can the Falcons make a serious run as a 1 dimensional offense? Maybe not, but it’s more than enough to cover against the Panthers.

Carolina looks disjointed. Cam Newton’s sophomore slump must end for Carolina to capitalize and make a wildcard run. At times, Newton looks lost as a passer. Teams simply need to focus on limiting the Panthers’ run game and Newton’s deficiencies as a passer take care of the rest. On the other side of the ball, Carolina fails to get much of a rush. Opposing QBs have been given too much time to pick apart the Panther’s relatively young defense. Atlanta runs away with this one.

CAR 13 ATL 31



San Francisco -4.5 @ New York Jets

Could losing the (arguably) best player in your franchise’s history hurt? Kyle Wilson is a solid player but the drop off is immense. This will change the nature of Rex Ryan’s defense; a defense that must play well given the erratic nature of Mark Sanchez and the relative ineptitude of Shonn Greene. SF took a surprise beating in Minnesota. They’re a resilient bunch and Harbaugh will surely have them prepared to run wild in the new Meadowlands.

SF 24 NYJ 12



New York Giants +2.5 @ Philadelphia

Michael Vick isn’t going to win a championship as a starting quarterback. The Eagles are slowly and somewhat painfully coming to this same conclusion. With a rookie backup and with some much invested in Vick, Reid will diligently march ahead. Give the ball to McCoy, ask less of Vick, and allow your Wide 9 do the dirty work. It’s not within Reid’s nature, but he must adapt to succeed.

NYG 33 – PHI 23


New England -4 @ Buffalo

NE 30 BUFF 24


Minnesota +4 @ Detroit

MIN 17 DET 21


San Diego -1.5 @ Kansas City

SD 30 KC 20


Seattle -3 @ St Louis

I’m a little late to the NFC West bandwagon but it appears the division boasts 3 premier defenses. Seattle’s pass rush and big secondary continues to impress. Overshadowed by the game stealing play in Green Bay on Monday night, the Seahawks defense slowed the explosive Green Bay offense to a crawl. Seattle’s lone loss at the hands of Arizona looks much better in retrospect after the Cards’ 3-0 start.

SEA 27 STL 21


Tennessee +12 @ Houston

TENN 17 HOU 27


Oakland @ Denver -7

OAK 17 DEN 27


Miami +6 @ Arizona

MIA 21 ARI 17


Cincinnati @ Jacksonville +1.5

CIN 24 JAX 21


Washington +2 @ Tampa Bay

WAS 30 TB 27


Chicago +3.5 @ Dallas

CHI 28 DAL 27

Danny's Week 4 Picks

Danny ATS (24-23-2)

New England @ Buffalo +4

Julian Edelman is out for the Patriots.  He has been a go-to player for Brady.  Will this be the week that Wes Welker steps up and provides fantasy owners with 12 receptions for 124 yards and a TD?  I am not so sure about that.  What I am sure about is the effort that the Bills will be bringing on Sunday.  This is a big game for them and I expect their defense to step up in a big way.  I don’t think they win because of the injuries in the backfield (CJ Spiller out, Fred Jackson questionable), but I think they can keep this game within reach due in a large part to the explosive plays Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are capable of.  No chance in hell Brady and Belichick lose three in a row.  Patriots win by a touchdown.

Pick -    Patriots 30 – Bills 23


Minnesota @ Detroit -4

I do not believe in the hype for the Vikings just yet.  Even with a depleted secondary I don’t expect the Lions to have a hard time keeping Christian Ponder in check.  Assuming the defensive line is able to keep Adrian Peterson from having a big day, the Lions should have a solid win at home.  Stafford is expected to play (hip/hamstring) so expect some productive numbers from Megatron, Burleson, and Pettigrew.

Pick -   Lions 27 - Vikings 16


Carolina @ Atlanta -7

My preseason pick was the Panthers to surprise the NFC South and the NFC in general.  That doesn’t look like such a good pick.  If this game was in Carolina I would give the Panthers a shot to rebound here.   Matt Ryan is too hot, and the Falcons defense is ranked 4th overall.  Good luck Cam, but I think the Falcons will have no problem in this one.

Pick -   Atlanta 31 - Carolina 20


San Francisco @ New York Jets +4.5

This line is deceiving isn’t it?  Back to back long road trips for the 49ers is an issue, but a sour loss to the Vikings (and the news or Revis)  will clearly motivate the 49ers to come out playing with ferocity on both offense and defense.  Mark Sanchez won’t know what to do against the 49ers defense.  And I think Alex Smith and Vernon Davis will hook up for a nice day.  Take the 49ers for an easy win.

Pick - 49ers 20 - Jets 7


San Diego @ Kansas City +1

Tough spot for the Chargers coming off a bad loss at home, now they have to go into Arrowhead Stadium where the crowd will make it a very tough environment to play in.  In 13 games against Kansas City in his career Philip Rivers has a qb rating of 84.3 and a 17/14 TD to INT ratio. In 5 starts at Kansas City Rivers is 2-3, so clearly this will be a tough game for Phil. While  I think the Chargers are the better team, I think they have the better quarterback and the better defense, but these numbers tell me that Rivers will struggle a bit on the road and that the Chiefs, coming off an emotional win in New Orleans, will find a way to get it done against the Chargers.

Pick - Chiefs 24 - Chargers 23


Tennessee @ Houston -12

I like the home team in this matchup.  Keep in mind that the Titans offense only scored 23 points last week and 7 were from a crazy catch made by Nate Washington.  Schaub and his boys handle their business.

Pick - Texans 30 – Titans 10


Seattle @ St. Louis +3

The Seahawks defense is going to dominate this game.  Can Russell Wilson and the offense of the Seahawks put up a few points and get a solid win on the road against an improving Rams team?  Yes and the defense probably score a td themselves.

Pick – Seattle 16 – Rams 9



Miami @ Arizona -6

Again, another dominating NFC West defense will get it done on Sunday.  The Dolphins are without Reggie Bush, and Tannehill will get eaten up by the Cardinals defense.  The Cardinals defense dominated the game against Seattle, played phenomenal against the Patriots in New England, and flat out destroyed Michael Vick last weekend.  Lock this up for an easy win for the Cardinals.  Kolb will continue to impress when he is connecting with Larry Fitz 9-10 times in this game.

Pick - ****Cardinals 24 - Dolphins 6


Oakland @ Denver -7

Peyton Manning should have a nice day against the Oakland Raiders secondary that played horrible against Pittsburgh.  The Broncos have enough defense to keep the Raiders offense from putting up big points.  Expect Janikowski to do most of the scoring for the Raiders in this one.  I see a big win for the Broncos here.  Big spot for Manning to perform in front of his home crowd.

Pick - Broncos 31 - Raiders 20



Cincinnati @ Jacksonville +1.5

Just when I thought about taking the home team in this game I went through some stats and said “No chance.”  The Jaguars just are not playing well on defense and it will cost them in this game against a very diverse Bengals offense.  AJ Green, BenJarvus, Dalton, and Gresham are all hot starts this week in fantasy.  Stop MJD and the Bengals will win this easily.

Pick - ***Bengals 26 – Jaguars 16



New Orleans @ Green Bay -7.5

The Packers are third in total yards allowed, while the Saints are thirty second.  The Packers are third in sacks, while the Saints are 18th.  Saints will be 0-4 following a blowout loss to the highly motivated Green Bay Packers.

Pick - ****Packers 44 – Saints 24


Washington @ Tampa Bay -2.5

The Redskins and Bucs are the two worst teams against the pass in the NFL.  The Bucs are extremely good against the run (#1 in the NFL) but that will change on Sunday when RG3 and the Redskins find ways to execute running the football in order to exploit the Bucs secondary.  The Skins need this win to save face from the past two weeks.  Are they for real or are the Saints just that bad?  A mix of both in my mind, but the Redskins find a way to get a win in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Pick -   Washington 34 – Tampa Bay 30


New York Giants @ Philadelphia -2.5

You know this game will be an instant classic after the performance that Michael Vick put on against the Cardinals on Sunday.  Vick and Andy Reid will have a very strong game plan for the Giants, and I believe the Eagles defense will play the best they have all year in this game on Sunday night.  This rivalry is crazy, and the Eagles fans will be going insane.  Eli Manning has shown that he can play in any stadium; any environment at any time, but this will be entirely different.  The Eagles are 2-1 and no one knows how good or how bad they actually are.  The defense has shown signs of brilliance, but at times the secondary looks so out of whack.  The offense has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, but they also have moved the ball up and down the field on teams at ease (except for most of the Arizona game).  The Eagles will get their swag back on Sunday night on a nationally televised game.

Pick - Eagles 30 – Giants 26


Chicago @ Dallas -3.5

This is such an interesting game.  Both teams have shown great things defensively, but both teams have struggled with consistency on offense.  The edge at quarterback goes to the home team, Romo has been better than Cutler.  The edge defensively goes to the Bears as they have more interceptions, forced fumbled, pass deflections, sacks, and are better against the run.  Coaching clearly goes to Chicago as Jason Garrett has been suspect since icing his own kicker last season.  This is a tough game to pick because of how bad Cutler has been the past two weeks; he didn’t really have a convincing performance against the Rams.  Romo has struggled since the Giants win, and Dez Bryant has not been a probowl type receiver this season.  I like the points in this game; I think the Bears offer a bigger challenge defensively for the Cowboys than the Cowboys do for the Bears.  If Cutler can limit mental mistakes and if Forte comes back for this one the edge goes to the Bears.


Pick - Bears 20 – Cowboys 17

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Week 3 Suicide Pool picks

Last week we passed with the Bengals



Danny's Week 3 NFL Picks

Danny  ATS  16-14-2

St. Louis @ Chicago -7

Bears get back on track against a good opponent.  The Rams will fight hard, but the Bears have had extra time off and will focus on distrupting Amendola off the line of scrimmage.  Rams struggle to keep up in a mild shootout in Chicago.

Pick -   Bears 30 – Rams 17 

Kansas City @  New Orleans -8

The Saints are in must-win mode this Sunday and where better for them to be playing but on their home turf.  The Saints defense will be inspired to play against a Chiefs offense that has not had much success running or throwing the ball this season.  Drew Brees will get it going early and often against the Chiefs secondary.  ****Expect a big day from Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham (obviously).  Saints need a statement win today, and they get it done.  1-2 for the Saints, while the Chiefs head closer towards my predicted record for their 0-5 start.

Pick -   Saints 38 – Chiefs 17

Tampa Bay @ Dallas -8

Pick -  Cowboys 24 – Buccaneers 17


San Francisco @ Minnesota +7

Come on, I know this line is tricky, but I see no reason for a 49ers let down here.  They can run the ball, Alex Smith has passed the ball very well this season, and their defense is the best in the league.  On the other side of the ball you have the Vikings; an established run game (going against the 49ers run defense eh hem), a young and inexperienced quarterback, and a lack of quality receivers (Harvin is a stud I am not including him there)

Pick – 49ers 26 – Vikings 10


Detroit @ Tennessee +4

Pick -   Lions 27 – Titans 19


Cincinnati @ Washington -3

Pick -  Redskins 34 – Bengals 27


New York Jets @ Miami +2.5

The defense should swarm today for the Jets.  Stop Reggie Bush and you win the game if you are the Jets.  3-0?  Not so fast fans.  Sanchez will move the offense, and Rex will confuse the hell out of Tannehill.  Game set match.  Lock up the Jets.

Pick -  Jets 17 – Dolphins 6


Buffalo @ Cleveland +3

Pick -  Bills 24 – Browns 16

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis -3

Pick -  Jaguars 21 – Colts 20

Philadelphia @ Arizona +3

Pick -  Eagles 27 – Cardinals 16

Atlanta @ San Diego -3

Pick -  Chargers 30 – Falcons 24


Houston @ Denver +1.5

Pick -   Texans 24 – Broncos 20

Pittsburgh @ Oakland +4

Pick -  Steelers 17 -  Raiders 12

New England @ Baltimore -2

Pick -  Patriots 34 – Ravens 30

Green Bay @ Seattle +3

Pick -  Packers 20 – Seahawks 13

Friday, September 21, 2012

Eric's Week 3 Selections

Eric (ATS) - 5-12-2


New England +3 @ Baltimore

Baltimore doesn’t get its due as a home crowd. They’re among the most rabid, loud, and annoying in the NFL. The Pats, more than any other team, will not care one bit. Coming off a wildly disappointing game, they will come into Baltimore focused and confident. They always beat Baltimore. The Ravens have yet to establish Torrey Smith as anything more than a home run hitter. He needs to find his way onto base more often. The Pats offense gets its groove back and the Ravens struggle to keep Flacco upright and mistake free.

Selecton -    PATRIOTS 38 – RAVENS 31


Green Bay @ Seattle +3.5

Seattle’s secondary is impressive. Their corners are all built like Calvin Johnson and since the replacement refs are dumbfounded by interferences of the passes, Seattle manhandles opposing receivers. More than any other team, Seattle benefits from the ongoing lockout. It feels like the football of years gone by. I’m fine with a more aggressive style of pass defense; I loved football in the 80’s and 90’s. The problem is, when the real refs return, yellow flags will rain down from the heavens. The NFL may cause this yellow rain even before that by mandating the scabs call closer games. Seattle’s not elite and top to bottom lack the talent Green Bay has. However, if they can clamp down on these Green Bay receiving corps and feed Marshawn Lynch a steady dose of carries- we might just see an upset go down on Monday night in Seattle.  I see it happening.

Selection -   PACKERS 24 -  SEAHAWKS 27


Tampa Bay +8 @ Dallas

Against New York, the Cowboys’ offensive line held it together just well enough to keep one of the more formidable d-lines in the NFL at bay. Against Seattle, the offensive line imploded. Tyron Smith, a promising young tackle, looks lost after his move to the left side. Doug Free continues his free-fall (thank you) since signing a fat contract. The rest of the rag-tag free agents and trade acquisitions are abominations. I’m sure Larry Allen couldn’t stop throwing up during last week’s mess. While Jason Garrett bailed on running the ball early, Romo was forced to do everything. He did his best to shake and shimmy but you can only work so much magic while running for your life. Dropped passes and no protection prevented Dallas from overcoming special-teams blunders that put them down by 10 in the first five minutes of the game. Tampa’s secondary is suspect, but improving. Too many points to give for a Dallas team that showed us absolutely nothing last weekend.

Selection -     BUCCANEERS 17 -  COWBOYS 23


Buffalo -3 @ Cleveland

Selection - BUFF 17 -  CLE 10


Detroit -4 @ Tennessee

Selection - DET 28 -  TENN23


Jacksonville +3 @ Indianapolis

Selection -    JAX 20 -  INDY 21


New York Jets -3 @ Miami

Selection - NYJ 21 -  MIA 13


San Francisco -7.5 @ Minnesota

Selecton - SF 28  -   MINN 16


Kansas City +9 @ New Orleans

Selection -    KC 24  -  NO 30


Cincinnati @ Washington -2

Selection -  CINCY 24  -  WASH 27


Philadelphia -3.5 @ Arizona

Selection-   PHILLY 33 -  ARI 24


Atlanta @ San Diego -3

Selection-   ATL 31 -  SD 35


Houston +3 @ Denver

Selection - HOU 30  -  DEN 24

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Thursday Night Pick

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers -3

Eric has the Panthers 35-31

Danny has the Panthers 24- 17

info to come

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Week 2 Surprises and Let-downs


- Victor Cruz went loco on the Bucs secondary which surprised me after how good the Bucs defensive line looked against Carolina.  A strong d-line makes the secondary that much better, but week 2 was crazy for the Bucs secondary.  41 points allowed is insane for a Greg Schiano team.

- Reggie Bush sets the world on fire with 2 touchdowns and 170+ rushing yards on 25+ attempts.  Do anything close to that this week against the Jets and I will jump on the fantasy band wagon.

-The Arizona Cardinals; in a win on the road against New England,  Kolb connects with Larry Fitzgerald ONE TIME!

Let- Downs

-James Jones - I fully accept my mistake here.  Jones had a great opportunity to be the guy for Discount Double Check Rodgers, and he was a near no-show.  Horribe performance.

- Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles; wake up and smell the coffee before you realize its week 16.

- The Oakland Raiders looked horrible in Miami Sunday.  In a game they should have won, they couldn't stop the run, and they couldn't make any arguments there.

Power Rankings

Top 15 teams following week 2 games

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Houston Texans
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. New England Patriots
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Washington Redskins
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. New York Giants
13. Carolina Panthers
14. Denver Broncos
15. Chicago Bears

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Week 2 Suicide Pool Selections

Last week we were 2-0 with the Eagles and the Lions, I know we got nervous, also got the wins.

Top 3 Suicide Pool Picks for Week 2

#1  Patriots

#2  Bengals

#3  Raiders

Use your pick wisely, I would go Bengals since this should be an easy win for them.

Danny's Week 2 Selections

Danny’s Week 2 Selections

Tampa Bay @ New York Giants -7

The Giants have the extra rest here, and coming off a terrible home loss after the Championship ring ceremony I find it hard to believe they won’t get it done today.  Tampa will struggle to run the ball which will hurt them to keep pace with the Giants.


Selection – Giants 24 – Bucs 14


Arizona @ New England -14

The Patriots will have no problem getting on the board against the Cardinals in Foxboro.  Brady and his tight ends will do work, and expect a big day from Welker.  Welker wasn’t a big part of the game plan last week, but knowing Brady and Belechik, expect Welker to make some noise today.


Minnesota @ Indianapolis +3

I really liked the Colts in this game, but then Freeney and Collie were ruled out.  It is hard to say which team will show up and play better.  The Vikings will use AP all day and try to make the Colts front seven pay with the running game.  But, I don’t know how much I trust Ponder throwing the ball when he has too.  The Colts on the other hand, have the home opener and the beginning of the Luck era in Lucas Oil Field.  I think this will be similar to last week with the Viking/Jaguars game, home team wins again in OT.


Selection – Colts 23 - Vikings 20


New Orleans @ Carolina +3

This is a hard game to pick.  Brees has always played well against the Panthers, but you wonder is this year different.  Cam Newton and the Panthers are coming off a terrible performance against Tampa Bay, and they will look to establish the run game early in order to open up the field for Newton to throw.  This is a close game; edge goes to the better quarterback.


Selection - Saints 34 – Panthers 27

Kansas City @ Buffalo -3

Buffalo rebounds at home on Sunday afternoon.  Chiefs make the long trip to Buffalo, play in the time change zone, play in different weather, and play against a more motivated team that can stop the run, throw the deep ball, and have a big weapon in the backfield themselves.  I continue to say the Chiefs will get off to a slow start and then make a late season run at the playoffs.  Don’t trust Cassel today.  Stick with the Harvard grad.


Selections - Bills 30 – Chiefs 20


Baltimore @ Philadelphia -2.5

What a game in Philly on Sunday.  The Eagles are in a must win situation against the Ravens, if you ask the Philly fans, and I think they will get it done.  No way Vick plays as bad as he did in Cleveland again, and no way Flacco puts up 40+ again.  The Eagles defensive line will put pressure on Flacco and get him off his game.  The Eagles front seven has looked great against the run all preseason and against the Browns as well.  Can the Eagles secondary keep Torrey Smith and Boldin in check?  I believe so, and as long as the Eagles utilize Shady McCoy on the ground, and Vick stays smart through the air, the Eagles get this one and head to Arizona 2-0.

Selections – Eagles 27 - Ravens 23


*****Oakland @ Miami +2.5

Don’t give me the cross country travel talk; the Raiders handle their business in Miami on Sunday.  Tannehill will not beat Carson Palmer, Reggie Bush will not outperform Run DMC, and the Raiders defense will shine against a rookie quarterback.  Welcome to the NFL against Tannehill, best of luck next week.


Selection – Raiders 20 – Dolphins 7


*****Cleveland @ Cincinnati -7

The Bengals are in a “must-rebound” situation here.  They have to bounce back with authority.  20 points wins this game, but they need to post up a donut hole or a 3 spot as a defense.  Expect Weeden to be under duress all game by the Bengals front seven, and expect Gresham and Green to both have TD catches.   Dalton will get back to his routine here, and BenJarvus will stabilize the offense as well.

Selection - Bengals 24 – Browns 6


Houston @ Jacksonville +7

Anyone nervous that this line has not moved at all…Me neither.  Texans win again.


Selection - Texans 28 – Jaguars 13


Dallas @ Seattle +3.5

UPSET ALERT!  Seattle is a tough place to play and the 12th man will be going crazy to rattle Romo and the Cowboys.  The extra days should have helped the Cowboys get healthy and prepare for this game, the Seahawks are coming off a should-have been-a win game in Arizona last week.  Dallas will sneak out with a win, but do not be surprised if Russ Wilson and his boys pull off an upset here.  Trust me when I say the Seahawks defense is legit and will force turnovers from Romo, I just question Wilson against the Cowboys defense too..


Selection Cowboys 17 – Seahawks 16


****Washington @ St. Louis +3.5

UPSET SPECIAL Part 2!  Pierre Garcon is likely out for the Skins, the Rams defense offers much more of a challenge than the Saints defense, and RG3 will be under pressure all game.  Jeff Fisher has been in football too long to let a rookie, mobile, quarterback eat up his defense like the Saints allowed him to do last week.  Low scoring game, the Rams will use Steven Jackson and short passes to eat up the clock and put points on the board.  I am high on the Redskins, and high on RG3, but I think he is humbled today and the Rams take down the Skins at home.  Sam Bradford is in his third year behind center, he knows how to win games in the NFL.  He will make smart decisions with the football and the Rams defense will create turnovers.

Selection -   Rams 20 – Redesigns 17


New York Jets @ Pittsburgh -5.5

Harrison and Polamalu look to be out again for Pittsburgh, but Revis is out for the Jets too.  It’ll be Cromartie and Wilson taking on Wallace and Brown, Sanchez vs Big Ben, and Rex vs Tomlin.  I give the edge to the home team in what appears to be a must win game.  Jets look like the preseason Jets in this one.

Selections - Steelers 20 – Jets 10


Tennessee @ San Diego -6.5

Tennessee needs to rebound, but the Chargers defense was impressive against the Raiders last week.  Kenny Britt to see some action today?  Can the Titans get it done on the road against Phil Rivers without Ryan Matthews?  Advantage home team.  Stop Chris Johnson and the Chargers should win this game.

Selection - Chargers 23 – Titans 20


Detroit @ San Francisco -7

Good luck Detroit.  The 49ers at home are very tough to beat.  Harbaugh will not lose this game; I just cannot wait for the post game handshake.

Selection -   49ers 24 – Lions 20


Denver @ Atlanta -3

Shootout of the week?!  Peyton and his boys cross the country to play a Monday night matchup in Atlanta.  Matty Ice looked stellar last week and I expect that trend to continue. But Peyton looked sharp too, and Atlanta doesn’t offer much of a pass rush to shut him down, so I expect this game to be pretty high scoring.  Peyton will utilize the no huddle offense to get the Falcons defense tired come the fourth quarter.  But, Ryan has more weapons to use and Michael Turner will bust out for some big runs to ignite the offense and the crowd.  Settle down Peyton bandwagon, plenty of games this season.


Selection - Falcons 35 – Broncos 30

Eric's Week 2 Selections

Eric's Week 2 Selections (locks posted last few picks)

New Orleans -3 @ Carolina

Pick: NO 35  CAR 28

Houston -7 @ Jacksonville

Pick:  HOU 24  JAX  13

Washington -3.5 @ St. Louis

Pick:  WASH 30  STL 20

Kansas City @ Buffalo -3

Pick:  KC13  Buff 17

NYJets +6 @ Pittsburgh

Pick:  NYJ 24  PITT 27

Tennessee@ San Diego -6.5

Pick: TENN 16  SD  24

Detroit +7 @ San Francisco

Pick: DET 27  SF  33

Denver +3 @ Atlanta 

Pick:  DEN 32  ATL 31

Minnesota -3 @ Indianapolis 

Pick: MINN 27  INDY 24 

Oakland -2.5 @ Miami

Couldn’tthe regular center long snap?  Wouldn’t you rather have Lechler punt from the shotgun than field ground balls from a few yards deeper?  I’m about as low on Tannehill as I am Weeden.  Just because more rookies have found success from the onset of their careers does not mean all will.  Does anyone recall David Carr?  After years of being pummeled, his confidence was shot and he his growth as a player stunted. 

Pick:  OAK  20  MIA 16

Arizona@ New England -14

Pick: ARI  17  NE  38

Tampa Bay +7 @ New York Giants

Pick: TB  20  NYG 24

Baltimore +2.5 @ Philadelphia

Huh?  The Eagles are favored? This is kind of like what went down in the Devil Went Down to Georgia by Charlie Daniels.  I mean, the Devil won right?  His song was clearly better than Johnny’s.  Who judged the contest anyway?  The only others present were the demons, so was it an honor system? It doesn’t seem wise to enter into an honest call-your-own-fouls kind of contest with the Devil.  I mean, he is the most dishonorable thing in the universe.  I don’t know what how God feels about Johnny, but he can’t look favorably at someone who bets their soul, God’s one true gift, against a fiddle made of gold.  Further, I don’t think it was wise for Johnny to invite the Devil back for a rematch.  I’d assume the Devil stay away as I doubt he’d comeback with the same routine.  Speaking of the Devil, I think he may have taken ownership of Mike Vick’s soul in exchange for that 2010 performance. 

Pick:  Baltimore 27 - Eagles 23

Dallas -3 @ Seattle

This feels a little like a let down game for Dallas.  The Cowboys still have massive questions along their offensive line and the defense, while improved, failed to shut down the Giants on their final scoring drive.  All of that said, there’s a lot of talent at the skill positions for Dallas.  Romo, Bryant, Austin, and Murray help cover deficiencies on the offensive line. Kevin Ogletree came out of nowhere.  After languishing on the bench for years, he finally showed some of the production that kept him on the roster.  However, DeMarco Murray is the lynch pin.  If Murray stays healthy and gives them a consistent threat (which can be just as important as actual production), the strain on Romo and the passing game will decrease and remove the temptation from Romo to take undue risks.  Braylon Edwards might sneak upon the Cowboys this week, who will certainly key on Marshawn Lynch who ripped them for 135 last year.  Edwards is healthy and a big target.  His size gives him an advantage over either of the Dallas corners.  However, in the end Dallas wins this one by a TD.

Pick:  Dallas 20 - Seattle 13

Cleveland @ Cincinnati -7

Yes, the Ravens ended up blowing the Bengals out, but they were in the game until the Ed Reed pick six.  The Bengals made it to the playoffs by beating bad teams last year.  They’re the median, the mid point,the exact middle of the NFL.  It might be an awful lot of fun (not to mention profitable) betting against Brandon Weeden this year. 

CLE  9   CIN 17

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Week 2 Thursday Night Football

Bears @ Packers -6

With all of the talk going on this week that the Bears receivers are too big and too physical, I expect the Packers d-backs to come up playing some physical defense.  The Packers should get to Cutler early as the Bears O-Line is not superb, but I expect the Bears to make the proper adjustments and shock the Lambeau faithful tonight.  The Bears are poised at a big season, health being the key.  As usual Rodgers will keep it close and I am sure there will be fireworks in the second half that make this a high scoring game.  Will the one,two punch of Forte and Bush be too much for the Packers front seven?  Will James Jones be the homerun hitter I expect he can be in the absence of Greg Jennings?  Makes for a great game tonight...

Danny's Selection -  Bears 31 - Packers 30

Top Let downs of Week 1

#1 - Philadelphia Eagles Offense- The Eagles had an opportunity to set
the stage for a big season with a big opening Sunday win over the
Cleveland Browns. Instead, they came out and laid an egg. Vick threw
four interceptions and dropped back to throw the ball 70 times.
Insane. LeSean McCoy showed frustration with the play calling. And
the Eagles also had 12 offensive penalties. Poor performance from the
Eagles offense. Lucky enough, they got the win.

#2 - New Orleans Saints - Thoroughly dominated in New Orleans by a
rookie. What a surprise. After the suspensions being lifted from the
Bounty players many thought the Saints would have played with more
energy. RG3 dominated the Saints, and Drew Brees just never got his
team going early enough to slow down the Skins. Can the Saints step
their game up this weekend in Carolina against Cam Newton and the

#3 - Green Bay Packers - While the 49ers are an impressive team and
they play with such physicality, did anyone expect the Packers to get
destroyed at home? The Packers were never in this game and the
defensively they looked soft. Tough game to rebound against the Bears
on a short week....

Top Pickups for Week 2

Players that you should consider picking up for Week 2 and for
upcoming weeks as well

Quarterbacks -

Robert Griffin III - If you haven't already you have probably lost out
on the waiver claim. RG3 put up 320 yards passing and 2 touchdowns in
New Orleans. He will have a few hickups throughout the year, but
expect him to be very valuable in fantasy points.

Joe Flacco - not someone I would have projected as a top 12 fantasy
quarterback, but after week 1 I would definitely advise picking up
Flacco as he looked superb against the Bengals defense.

Running Backs-

CJ Spiller - Fred Jackson is out for sometime, if not the year,
Spiller is now the feature back. You saw his big run against the
Jets, expect plays like that to continue. 169 yards on 14 carries and
a touchdown is a pretty good day, he should see over 20 touches a game
from this point forward.

Stephen Ridley - 21 rushes for 125 yards and a touchdown. The
Patriots have a brutally easy schedule this year, expect Ridley to
have value early on this season.

Wide Receivers -

Reggie Wayne - Target 15 times, Wayne had 9 receptions for 135 yards.
Luck will find himself playing from behind often and Reggie Wayne is a
great security blanket. Expect 100+ receptions from RW this season.

James Jones - Ride this guy for as long as Jennings has to rest his
groin. Cobb is the sexy pickup for the Packers, but you will see
double digits targets for Jones this weekend, and he is a big guy that
is a big target for Rodgers as the Packers will be throwing early and
often (as usual).

Power Rankings - entering week 2

Top 12 Teams through Week 1

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. New England Patriots

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Houston Texans

5. Atlanta Falcons

6. Denver Broncos

7. Chicago Bears

8. Washington Redskins

9. Dallas Cowboys

10. New York Jets

11. Detroit Lions

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

- Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Green Bay all performed subpar to the
teams listed above.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Danny's Week 1 Selections

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears (-10) - This is the first chance for Andrew Luck to display his talents in a regular season NFL game.  While the Bears defense may be a little long in the tooth, the veteran leadership should have provided plenty of motivation to eat up the young fresh meat this week behind center.  With Peppers coming off the end, Briggs and Urlacher in the middle, and Tillman in the secondary, there will be constant pressure on the Colts offense to perform.  Expect Luck to play well, but not well enough.  The Bears offense is high-powered; the Cutler and Brandon Marshall connection should be one of the best QB to WR tandems this season, then you have the two headed running back situation with Matt Forte and Michael Bush, and let's not also Mr. Devin Hester lining up in the slot.  The Bears will be sure to put up some points in their home opener, I don't think Andrew Luck and Co. will have enough ammunition to keep it within reach.  Expect a nice day from Reggie Wayne as Luck will have to pass early and often.

Selection:  Bears 30 - Colts 17

****Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns (+9.5) - My first lock of the season, I expect a big win from the Eagles in Cleveland.  Brandon Weeden facing one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, that spells trouble for the Browns.  Michael Vick needs to put his money where his mouth is and make it through a series without a bump or bruise.  Vick only dropped back 12 times in the preseason and was injured twice.  LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and of course Michael Vick are all must-start fantasy options this week.  Eagles win big on Sunday.

Selection: #1 Lock of the Season -  EAGLES 35 - Browns 13

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-3) - This should be a good game.  The Bills have a strong offense, with an improved offensive line, and a more experienced CJ Spiller splitting touches with Fred Jackson.  On the other side, Mario Williams will provide a big bump in run-stopping and quarterback pressure for the Bills defense.  The Bills are a well rounded team, but they always find a way to lose a game.  Not so fast in this one.  The Jets had an awful preseason and now go into the regular season with drama surrounding.  Should Tim Tebow start?  What if Sanchez struggles early?  Is Santonio Holmes a leader on this team or still a distraction?  Where will the Jets find offense?  Thank God the Jets have a good defense or else this would be an easy win for the Bills.  I think the Jets will struggle to find an identity this season and the Bills will take advantage of early miscues.  No explosiveness on offense will really hurt the Jets in this one.  Bills get the road win.

Selection:  Bills 16 - Jets 10

Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5) - The bounty bans have been temporarily removed for the banned players from "Bounty Gate".  That should spark some new life into the locker room in New Orleans.  While I think the Redskins could possibly make a lot of noise this year in the NFC East, this is too big a game for RG3 to win.  New Orleans is a very tough place to beat Drew Brees at, and I do not think the Skins can do it.  Brees and his boys will use a balanced offense to win this game.  I do like the Skins getting the points as I think Griffin will be fine against the Saints defense, and he will also use his legs to extend the play.

Selection:  Saints 27 - Redskins 24

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (+6)  - The spread has to tell you something about this game right. It is screaming for me to take the points and bet the Titans.  But, Brady is so loaded on offense and their defense should be improved from last season!  This Patriots team has a legitimate shot at 13 or 14 wins this season.  The Titans are a playoff team in a tough spot here.  While I think they keep it close, I just don't know if they have the playmakers on defense to come up with a big play in the fourth quarter that can slow down this Patriot offense and give the Titans an opportunity to be in the game with the ball under two minutes. 

Selection:  Patriots 31 - Titans 24

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) - Blayne Gabbert has the weapons with him on offense to give his team an opportunity to win this football game.  Using Robinson and Blackmon down the field will open up some running lanes for Jennings and Jones Drew to gain some extra yards.  Whether AP plays or not does not change my view on this game that the Jaguars will outwork the Vikings and get the job done in Cleveland.

Selection:  Jaguars 17 - Vikings 13

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-13) - Ryan Tannehill...welcome to the NFL.  Even if Foster is ruled inactive at game time, the Texans have Ben Tate ready to run hard against the Dolphins defense.  Hard Knocks exploited the Dolphins as a potential 2-4 win team this year.  They are weak and lack talent on the outside that would allow Reggie Bush to have a successful season running the football.  This will be an eye opener for how the Dolphins will have to approach each upcoming game.  Schaub and the Texans defense cruise to a home victory.

Selection:  Texans 30 - Dolphins 7

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-7.5) - The St. Louis Rams are not a bad team, and with Jeff Fisher on the sidelines they will improve.  That being said, they remind me a lot of the 2010 Detroit Lions, a team that would hang tight in every game, but just disappear in the 4th quarter.  The Rams have a strong front seven to keep the opposing running backs in check, their secondary has improved, but its the offensive side of the ball that they will have a hard time competing with other teams.  Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson are not the wideouts that Sam Bradford should be targeting.  They need help.  They have a great, but aging, back in Steven Jackson and Bradford is now in his third year behind center.  The lack of talent around him will be clearly evident this season.  On the flip side, the Lions scream talent everywhere but their defensive secondary.  Matthew Stafford will have no issues hooking up with Megatron, Burleson, Broyles, Young, Pettigrew all day against the Rams defense.  Lions in a smooth home victory.

Selection:   Lions 27 - Rams 17

*****Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3) - Okay, it is time for everyone to smell their coffee.  While I know how difficult it is to play in Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are not ready to beat the Falcons.  Matt Cassell had one good year, and it was with the Patriots!  The quarterback is the most important position on the field and I trust the Falcons quarterback a lot more than the Chiefs quarterback.  The Falcons are stacked on offense, and Julio Jones will emerge as the number one target for Matty Ice.  Mind you that he also can target Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglas, Quizz Rodgers, Michael Turner....yeah.  Chiefs will be good come week 7, but they will go through growing pains early this season, and they will be fortunate that 8-8 should win their division.  Lock it up, Falcons win big.

Selection:  Falcons 27 -  Chiefs 13

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-5) -

This should be an awesome game.  Alex Smith and the 49ers heading in the Green Bay to play Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense.  A tremendous defense on the road against an explosive offense in their backyard.  Wow.  After the performance against the Saints in the playoffs last season this seems doable for the 49ers.  But, Green Bay will win this game.  It is one of those things that is hard to explain.  Look at the Patriots/ Titans game; you know the Patriots will win, but you also know the Titans have all the weapons to keep the game close and try for an upset.  But you just can’t pick the Titans outright…maybe they cover, but not an outright win you know?  This is how I feel in this game.  The 49ers could lead the entire game, but you know Rodgers is gonna’ hook up with James Jones in some crazy scramble play and the Packers will go on to get an exciting home win.  I don’t need to get in to stats or details about the players on each team.  We know who has who and where each team performs really well.  I do think that if the Packers can establish any bit of a run game with Cedric Benson against the 49ers front seven, then this game will be over early.  That being said, it should be close, it could be a preview of the NFC Championship, but I expect the home team to handle their business.
Selection:  Packers 26  - 49ers 20

*****Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) -

Pay close attention to my site all year and you will see that I am high on the Panthers this season, and I think they are a playoff team.  Cam Newton is the reason.  What he can do with his arm and with his legs, few quarterbacks in the league can compete with.  He has a year under his belt, he has two tremendous running backs in Williams and Stewart, and of course he has Steve Smith split out on his left.  The Panthers have the players to win games; it’s the mental mistakes that they have to limit this season in order to win the close games.  This will be a prime example as they go on the road into Tampa Bay to play a much improved Buccaneers football team.  Vinny Jackson acquired in the off season proves Joshua Freeman with a Pro Bowl receiver, and Doug Martin looks like he will be a rookie stud in the backfield after winning the starting role from L. Blount in the preseason.   But, a rookie coach is on the sidelines for the Buccaneers and I expect Greg Schiano to struggle early in his rookie season.  It is very tough to open your season against a strong, mobile quarterback like Cam Newton, let alone the fact that it is your first game as a Head Coach in the NFL.  Take the Panthers as the road favorite.
Selection:  Panthers 24  - Buccaneers 17

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) - Russell Wilson in his rookie debut against a very weak Arizona Cardinals football team, I like Wilson to impress and get a nice road win for Pete Carrol and the Seahawks.

Selection:  Seahawks 17 - Cardinals 9

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-2) - I am not sold yet that Peyton Manning can jump right into the NFL and open up with a win against the most ferocious NFL defense of his era.  The Steelers are older, but they are savvy veterans and they will get the job done.  Manning has not shown that he can make the 20+ yard passes on a crisp, tight line.  What he has shown all preseason is that 8-14 yard ins,outs,curls, and back shoulder passes are where he is most comfortable. So this means that Polamalu will be able to play his game, meander through the secondary, and attack these shorter passes.  Broncos will not be able to run the ball successfully against  the Steelers front seven, so it will be on Manning to outshine Roethlisberger and I do not see that happening.  The Steelers should be the favorite here, in my opinion it is an upset if the Broncos win this game.  The Steelers will exploit the Broncos secondary with Wallace and Brown on deep routes.  Steelers win and spoil Manning's Bronco debut.

Selection:  Steelers 20 - Broncos 16

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-7) - My prediction for the Bengals this season is that they take a step backwards, and by that I mean that Andy Dalton will not have the success that he did last year.  The Ravens boast an All-Pro defense led by Ray and Ed, but it is the Ravens offense that I am looking most forward to this season.  I expect Flacco to have a big year throwing to Torrey Smith and Quan Boldin, and we obviously all know what Mr. Rice brings to the table.  The Bengals defense is still formidable but I think the Ravens have too many weapons on both sides of the ball, and they know that this could be the year they finally make it to the Super Bowl. Ravens come up guns firing, win in a big way against Cincy.

Selection:  Ravens 24 - Bengals 13

San Diego Chargers @ ******Oakland Raiders (-1) - Lock this up.  The Chargers are notorious slow starters under Norv Turner and that trend continues this year.  Mr. Rivers and Co. won't have enough to answer for the feisty Oakland Raiders.  Carson Palmer has weapons, not studs, but weapons on the outside that make plays for him.  And of course RUN DMC will be the difference maker in this game for the Raiders on offense.  Defensively the Raiders are stout and always play better at home.  Seymour is a beast and he will have fun with the Chargers O-Line.  Look for the Raiders to make big plays, come up with a big turnover, and capitalize on special teams as the Chargers are always slow starts in the area too.  Oakland is a lock at home on Monday night.

Selection - Raider 27 - Chargers 23