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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Week 15 Sunday NFL Picks

Lines according to

1 Parlay to look at Sunday: Bengals -7, Seattle +3.5, Broncos
+7.5, Lions -1.5 4 team parlay $50 to win $614
1 3-Team 10point Teaser for Sunday: Seattle +13.5, Washington +16,
Denver +17.5 $360 to win $300

Thursday: Danny and Eric both had Atlanta -12

Saturday: Danny had Dallas -7, Eric had Tampa Bay +7

Carolina @ Houston -6.5

A nice matchup for the Texans. The Panthers defense ranks among the
worst in the league and after watching a few games, I'd venture a
guess no team is worse. T.J. Yates looked serviceable as a rookie
starter last week. In fact, the drop off from Lienart to Yates is
negligible. Houston's defense and run first approach, which is
markedly different from years' past, allows them to find continued
success despite suffering injuries to key players. Losing those
players will prevent any sort of a deep run, but they'll do enough
this week to get a win.

Eric: CAR 24 HOU 27
Danny: CAR 20 HOU 27

Washington +6 @ New York

Jason Pierre-Paul held his coming out party last week in Dallas. He
displayed flashes of greatness in weeks past but failed to dominate an
entire game. Washington is without starting left tackle Trent
Williams due to failed drug tests. If JPP can produce another outing
like the one he turned out last week, we should see the bad to
downright awful Rex Grossman. Grossman's saving grace could come in
the form of a terrible Giants secondary and a run defense that allowed
Felix Jones to run rampant. Emerging star Roy Helu is in line for a
big day if the Washington defense can quell the surging Eli Manning.
Every Redskin fan I know took pride in last week's game against New
England. The general consensus of the fans, and likely the team, is
play well enough to keep it close but don't do anything to hurt our
chances at Matt Barkley.

Eric: WASH 20 NYG 24
Danny: WASH 27 NYG 24

Miami @ Buffalo -2

The Bills are depleted on their offensive line and Cameron Wake is
overdue for a big game. Miami lost their coach and is coming off a
bad home loss to Philly, I expect them to play hard on the road and
put it to the Bills.

Eric: MIA 17 BUFF 14
Danny: MIA 24 BUFF 20

Seattle +3 1/2 @ Chicago

The drop off from Jay Cutler to Calen Haine is astronomical. It will
likely render questions over Cutler's ability to return for the
playoffs moot. Without Cutler and Forte, the Bears must rely on
former guys like Marion Barber, Johnny Knox and Roy Williams for
offense. Not a happy prospect.

Eric: SEA 19 CHI 17
Danny: SEA 16 CHI 13****** LOCK

New Orleans -7 @ Minnesota

Drew Brees is coming off a poor performance in Tennessee last week.
The Saints are playing a bad team in Minnesota (even with a 85%
healthy AP) so I expect the Saints to score early and often and
probably have another Joe Webb sighting in the 2nd half for the

Eric: NO 31 MINN 14
Danny: NO 38 MINN 20

Cincinnati -7 @ St. Louis

The Red Head has played the Ravens, Texans, and Steelers in the past
three excited is Cedric Benson, Dalton, and AJ Green to
face a depleted Rams defense. The Rams are amped to have this season
come to an end. Expect a Bengals shutout denied by a very late
Jackson TD Run.

Eric: CIN 28 STL 13
Danny: CIN 27 STL 10*********LOCK

Tennessee -6.5 @ Indianapolis

Is this the week the Colts get their first win of the season? Nope.

Eric: TENN 23 INDY 10
Danny: TENN 24 INDY 16

Green Bay -13½ @ Kansas City

Rodgers and the Packers will keep steamrolling through the NFL, but
expect Kyle Orton to keep the Chiefs in the game throwing the deep
ball to Dwayne Bowe and some screen passes to Dexter McCluster.

Eric: GB 38 KC 20
Danny: GB 35 KC 24

Detroit -1 1/2 @ Oakland

Oakland's newly acquired interception machine Carson Palmer landed in
the best situation possible. He no longer would see Pittsburgh and
Baltimore twice a year. Instead, he would play with a talent group of
skill players against the dregs of the AFC. Perhaps he would make a
decent CFL quarterback, or the UFL (if it still exists). Detroit will
have running back Kevin Smith back this week. When healthy, Smith
puts up nice numbers and this team needs a running game. While Smith
will surely have some ailment by the end of the game, he'll do enough
damage to open up the passing attack. Rookie Titus Young came on
these past few weeks and as defenses begin to take notice, Calvin
Johnson, who is due for a big game, will benefit.

Eric: DET 31 OAK 18*************LOCK
Danny: DET 24 OAK 16

New England @ Denver +7.5

Don't. Stop. Believin'.

Now I lay me down to sleep, I pray Tim Tebow my soul to keep, if the
Pats should win by more than eight, I pray my bookie understands why I
pay him late.

Eric: NE 23 DEN 24
Danny: NE 27 DEN 31

New York Jets @ Philadelphia -3

A shady little secret about the Jets: They cannot stop the run.
LeSean Mccoy is the most important player on the Eagles offense.
Getting him involved in the game is paramount to Phily's success. The
Eagles are a team whose parts are greater than their sum. Some of
these parts need to find their way out of town so that Philly can
rebuild organically. This game means a great deal more to the Jets
but I like Jason Babin (the most productive off-season acquisition)
and Trent Cole to wreak havoc on Mark Sanchez and goad him into some
poor decisions.

Eric: NYJ 17 PHI 23
Danny: NYJ 24 PHI 20

Cleveland @ Arizona -6.5

If Cleveland offers Colt McCoy and a 4th rounder for Kolb, do they
take it? It clears cap space, gives Arizona a backup to the viable
John Skelton and the opportunity to groom a young guy for the next few

Eric: CLE 13 ARI 17
Danny: CLE 9 ARI 17

Baltimore -3 @ San Diego's Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting article that
entertained the idea Indianapolis would deal Peyton Manning next year.
He listed Baltimore as one of the top potential destinations. The
story of the Ravens revolves around the ebb and flow of Joe Flacco.
The defense is good. Very good. However, they are not a defense that
could will a team to the Super Bowl. The skill players are in line
and the emergence of Torrey Smith gives the team a speedy downfield
threat. Something the Ravens lacked for years. Baltimore can beat
any team in the league convincingly when Flacco hits. However, when he
misses, he does so badly and they lose to the likes of Jacksonville
and Seattle. One of my old college roommates, a die hard Ravens fan
(who denies that pro football even occurred prior to the franchises
inception) loves Flacco. His sentiment is similar to many who
frequent the bars in Federal Hill. Flacco's their guy. Baltimore
drafted him, developed him, and he certainly demonstrates the
potential to evolve into an elite quarterback. However, his time is
now. He's a veteran with an aging defense whose core will only
contend for another year or so. I think my friend, and many Ravens
fans, see Flacco like I see Romo. Only Flacco doesn't get the
scrutiny because Ray Lewis is the face of the franchise and Joe's a
goofy character who isn't cool in any sense. I don't mean that in any
malicious way. Rather, he's authentically not cool and does not seem
to come up on anyone's radar. Also, he doesn't wear goofy hats and
open collared shirts with a shit eating grin in his post game press
conferences nor are his melt downs as exceptional. Peyton will remain
in Indianapolis. However, a Manning led Baltimore team would scare
the shit out of everyone else in the AFC.

Eric: BAL 30 SD 24*****************LOCK
Danny: BAL 34 SD 30

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco +2.5

Big Ben's status is still uncertain, but Pouncey has been ruled out
for MNF. I think the hometeam has the defense to keep Big Ben in
check and not allow the big play down the field to Wallace or Brown.
Enough plays from Gore, Crabtree, and Davis will allow the foot of
David Akers (my ProBowl NFC Kicker) to get the win in a potential
Super Bowl matchup.

Eric: Pitt 24 SF 21
Danny: Pitt 16 SF 19


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