Week 5 NFL Picks
Danny - 32-29-3 ATS
Atlanta @ Washington +3 -160
Looking at this game and how these two teams have performed
through the first four games of the season, the line is clearly telling the
public to take Washington at home. The
Falcons are far and away the better team through the first four games. But, after struggling to put away Cam Newton
and the depleted Panthers secondary, the Falcons are in for a prime let down. Looking at the numbers the Redskins offense
is 4th in points per game, 3rd in total yards per game,
and 2nd in rushing yards per game.
While the Falcons should have no issue passing the ball around on the
Redskins 29th ranked pass defense, it is the Falcons run defense
(ranked 31st) that concerns me the most in this ball game. The Skins will be able to move the ball up
and down the field utilizing their forceful ground and pound attack, and then
mixing in the play action passes with RG3.
RG3 needs to protect the football, make the check downs when necessary,
and live to play another down and I believe the Skins get the home upset
here. Julio Jones has an injured hand,
so we will see how that shakes out. But
if the Redskins watch the tape from the Panthers/Falcons game, I think both the
offense and defense should feel pretty good about where they are catching the
Falcons during the season. This has
letdown written all over it for the Falcons.
Pick – Redskins 34 – Falcons 28
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh -3.5 -170
I am an Eagles homer by definition, but I just think this is
a tough spot for the Eagles to pick up a win.
I really like Pittsburgh in this game. Getting their key players back
will be pivotal in this matchup, as the defense is entirely different with Harrison
and Polamalu back in the starting eleven.
Two weeks off to prepare gives them even more of an edge as well. The Steelers have the better quarterback in
this game as Big Ben always shines in these types of matchups. The Eagles have been turnover happy all
season, they stayed clean last week against the Giants, but can any true Eagles
fan count on Reid to stay committed to the run this week? Pittsburgh gets the Eagles in this one.
Pick - Pittsburgh 24 – Philadelphia 17
Green Bay @ Indianapolis +7 -300
I understand the Colts are coming off a bye week and they
will rally for their head Coach battling Cancer, but this is just a tough
matchup for them. The Packers need a
strong performance for themselves and coming off a loss to Seattle and barely
escaping at home against the Saints, this is a great opportunity for Rodgers
and his crew to get things straightened out.
Luck and Wayne has solid days, but Rodgers has too much fire power and
too much consistency to lose this game.
Pick - Green Bay 30 – Indianapolis 20
Cleveland @ New York Giants -8.5 -360
I do not see the Browns stealing this one from the
Giants. Coming off an Eagles loss I expect
Tommy Coughlin to have his team prepared to put on a nice performance against
an inferior opponent. Stop Trent
Richardson and you win this game.
Pick – Giants 20 – Browns 12
Tennessee @ Minnesota -6 -250
I was tempted to go with the Titans in this game as it is
hard for me to believe the Vikings will win three straight games, but after
looking at a few game tapes and going through their defensive stats, the Titans
should lose this game. They are bad against
the run, even worse against the pass, they have no pass rush, and they don’t
force many turnovers. While I have no
faith in Christian Ponder as a quarterback, I believe Leslie Frasier will have
a well prepared game plan focused solely on Adrian Peterson and a few bootlegs
for Ponder. The Vikings defense should
feel pretty confident going into this game.
Pick – Minnesota 20 – Tennessee 17
Miami @ Cincinnati -3 -165
The Dolphins are the sexy pick here. They are 5th in the league in
rushing yards per game, Brian Hartline had a heck of a week last week, they are
#1 in the nfl against the run, but they are #29 against the pass and boy have
the Bengals been solid throwing the football downfield this season. Dalton and Green have hooked up quite a few
times to stretch the field and put points on the board. After a tough loss to Arizona last week, the
Dolphins have to take another flight this week and go to Cincy. This all takes a toll on the Phins and the
Bengals take care of the business here.
Pick – Bengals 24 – Dolphins 13
****LOCK*****
Baltimore @ Kansas City +6.5 -275
Stop Jamaal Charles and you win by double digits. Do you agree?
Thought so.
Pick – Ravens 27 – Chiefs 13
Seattle @ Carolina -3 -160
Carolina does not look poised to win this game. Their secondary is depleted, they suffered a
heart breaking loss last week in Atlanta, and this week they are pitted against
one of the best defenses in the league.
Seattle is a totally different team away from home, but I think Russ
Wilson will take some shots down the field and surprise people with his accuracy
on deep balls during an actual live NFL game.
I will take the points in this one.
Pick – Seattle 17 – Carolina 16
Chicago @ Jacksonville +5.5 -240
Stop MJD and you win this game. The Bears create enough turnovers, lead the
league in Interceptions, and they are 4th in sacks. The Jaguars on the other hand are last in the
league in sacks, towards the worst in run defense, and they are putrid on offense. This is not a recipe for success for the
Jaguars. Cutler and his boys will get it
done early. Bears win big in
Jacksonville.
Pick - Bears 26 – Jaguars 10
Denver @ New England -6.5 -275
What an awesome matchup here; Manning vs. Brady for what very
well could be the last regular season showdown between the two, we just don’t
know. That being said, the Patriots have
the clear edge in this game; the fact that they can utilize the running game
with Ridley and Woodhead gives them such good balance and it opens up so much
in the passing game for Brady. While I
do believe the Broncos offense is gelling, I just feel so much more comfortable
taking the Patriots rather than the Broncos.
The Broncos defense is in store for a tough day and it’ll come down to
playing in a shootout and can Peyton keep up.
Pick - Patriots 35 – Broncos 24
Buffalo @ San Francisco -10
The 49ers are starving for a home blow out and here it
is. The Bills rough second half last
week continues to plague them in week 5.
Take Smith and the 49ers to win a solid home win against a very good
Buffalo team.
Pick – San Francisco 27 – Buffalo 10
San Diego @ New Orleans -4 -190
I like the Chargers to surprise the public in this
matchup. Rivers won’t have any issues
with the Saints defense. While I expect
them to be fired up with suspended Head Coach Sean Payton in the stands, I feel
confident in saying that the better defense will win this game and threat is
clearly Chargers in my book. Drew Brees
will be without Lance Moore in this game, and the Saints have yet to establish
a running attack in any game this season.
While this is a big game for the Saints, and the entire public is all
over them, I can see Philip Rivers moving his offense up and down the field on
this Saints defense and scoring some quick points. While everyone and their mother claims this
to be an easy win for the Saints, I am on the other side. This is not the same
Saints team we are accustomed to seeing.
Pick – Chargers 27 – Saints 24
Houston @ New York Jets +9
No Revis, no Holmes, maybe some Tebow, and there will be
plenty of Arian Foster. The Jets run
defense has been bad this year, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL, and the
Texans will exploit that. The Texans
defense will have no issues with the Jets’ offense and this should be a pretty
smooth win on the road. Take the road
team here and lay the points, Jets won’t reach double digits.
Pick – Texans 24 – Jets 9
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