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Saturday, October 6, 2012

Week 5 Picks - Danny

Week 5 NFL Picks

Danny - 32-29-3 ATS


Atlanta @ Washington +3 -160

Looking at this game and how these two teams have performed through the first four games of the season, the line is clearly telling the public to take Washington at home.  The Falcons are far and away the better team through the first four games.  But, after struggling to put away Cam Newton and the depleted Panthers secondary, the Falcons are in for a prime let down.  Looking at the numbers the Redskins offense is 4th in points per game, 3rd in total yards per game, and 2nd in rushing yards per game.  While the Falcons should have no issue passing the ball around on the Redskins 29th ranked pass defense, it is the Falcons run defense (ranked 31st) that concerns me the most in this ball game.  The Skins will be able to move the ball up and down the field utilizing their forceful ground and pound attack, and then mixing in the play action passes with RG3.  RG3 needs to protect the football, make the check downs when necessary, and live to play another down and I believe the Skins get the home upset here.  Julio Jones has an injured hand, so we will see how that shakes out.  But if the Redskins watch the tape from the Panthers/Falcons game, I think both the offense and defense should feel pretty good about where they are catching the Falcons during the season.  This has letdown written all over it for the Falcons.

Pick – Redskins 34 – Falcons 28


Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh -3.5 -170

I am an Eagles homer by definition, but I just think this is a tough spot for the Eagles to pick up a win.  I really like Pittsburgh in this game. Getting their key players back will be pivotal in this matchup, as the defense is entirely different with Harrison and Polamalu back in the starting eleven.  Two weeks off to prepare gives them even more of an edge as well.  The Steelers have the better quarterback in this game as Big Ben always shines in these types of matchups.  The Eagles have been turnover happy all season, they stayed clean last week against the Giants, but can any true Eagles fan count on Reid to stay committed to the run this week?  Pittsburgh gets the Eagles in this one.

Pick - Pittsburgh 24 – Philadelphia 17


Green Bay @ Indianapolis +7 -300

I understand the Colts are coming off a bye week and they will rally for their head Coach battling Cancer, but this is just a tough matchup for them.  The Packers need a strong performance for themselves and coming off a loss to Seattle and barely escaping at home against the Saints, this is a great opportunity for Rodgers and his crew to get things straightened out.  Luck and Wayne has solid days, but Rodgers has too much fire power and too much consistency to lose this game.

Pick - Green Bay 30 – Indianapolis 20


Cleveland @ New York Giants -8.5 -360

I do not see the Browns stealing this one from the Giants.  Coming off an Eagles loss I expect Tommy Coughlin to have his team prepared to put on a nice performance against an inferior opponent.  Stop Trent Richardson and you win this game.

Pick – Giants 20 – Browns 12


Tennessee @ Minnesota -6 -250

I was tempted to go with the Titans in this game as it is hard for me to believe the Vikings will win three straight games, but after looking at a few game tapes and going through their defensive stats, the Titans should lose this game.  They are bad against the run, even worse against the pass, they have no pass rush, and they don’t force many turnovers.  While I have no faith in Christian Ponder as a quarterback, I believe Leslie Frasier will have a well prepared game plan focused solely on Adrian Peterson and a few bootlegs for Ponder.  The Vikings defense should feel pretty confident going into this game.

Pick – Minnesota 20 – Tennessee 17


Miami @ Cincinnati -3 -165

The Dolphins are the sexy pick here.  They are 5th in the league in rushing yards per game, Brian Hartline had a heck of a week last week, they are #1 in the nfl against the run, but they are #29 against the pass and boy have the Bengals been solid throwing the football downfield this season.  Dalton and Green have hooked up quite a few times to stretch the field and put points on the board.  After a tough loss to Arizona last week, the Dolphins have to take another flight this week and go to Cincy.  This all takes a toll on the Phins and the Bengals take care of the business here.

Pick – Bengals 24 – Dolphins 13


Baltimore @ Kansas City +6.5 -275

Stop Jamaal Charles and you win by double digits.  Do you agree?  Thought so.

Pick – Ravens 27 – Chiefs 13


Seattle @ Carolina -3 -160

Carolina does not look poised to win this game.  Their secondary is depleted, they suffered a heart breaking loss last week in Atlanta, and this week they are pitted against one of the best defenses in the league.  Seattle is a totally different team away from home, but I think Russ Wilson will take some shots down the field and surprise people with his accuracy on deep balls during an actual live NFL game.  I will take the points in this one.

Pick – Seattle 17 – Carolina 16


Chicago @ Jacksonville +5.5 -240

Stop MJD and you win this game.  The Bears create enough turnovers, lead the league in Interceptions, and they are 4th in sacks.  The Jaguars on the other hand are last in the league in sacks, towards the worst in run defense, and they are putrid on offense.  This is not a recipe for success for the Jaguars.  Cutler and his boys will get it done early.  Bears win big in Jacksonville.

Pick - Bears 26 – Jaguars 10


Denver @ New England -6.5 -275

What an awesome matchup here; Manning vs. Brady for what very well could be the last regular season showdown between the two, we just don’t know.  That being said, the Patriots have the clear edge in this game; the fact that they can utilize the running game with Ridley and Woodhead gives them such good balance and it opens up so much in the passing game for Brady.  While I do believe the Broncos offense is gelling, I just feel so much more comfortable taking the Patriots rather than the Broncos.   The Broncos defense is in store for a tough day and it’ll come down to playing in a shootout and can Peyton keep up.

Pick - Patriots 35 – Broncos 24


Buffalo @ San Francisco -10

The 49ers are starving for a home blow out and here it is.  The Bills rough second half last week continues to plague them in week 5.   Take Smith and the 49ers to win a solid home win against a very good Buffalo team.

Pick – San Francisco 27 – Buffalo 10


San Diego @ New Orleans -4 -190

I like the Chargers to surprise the public in this matchup.   Rivers won’t have any issues with the Saints defense.  While I expect them to be fired up with suspended Head Coach Sean Payton in the stands, I feel confident in saying that the better defense will win this game and threat is clearly Chargers in my book.  Drew Brees will be without Lance Moore in this game, and the Saints have yet to establish a running attack in any game this season.  While this is a big game for the Saints, and the entire public is all over them, I can see Philip Rivers moving his offense up and down the field on this Saints defense and scoring some quick points.  While everyone and their mother claims this to be an easy win for the Saints, I am on the other side. This is not the same Saints team we are accustomed to seeing.

Pick – Chargers 27 – Saints 24

Houston @ New York Jets +9

No Revis, no Holmes, maybe some Tebow, and there will be plenty of Arian Foster.  The Jets run defense has been bad this year, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL, and the Texans will exploit that.  The Texans defense will have no issues with the Jets’ offense and this should be a pretty smooth win on the road.  Take the road team here and lay the points, Jets won’t reach double digits.

Pick – Texans 24 – Jets 9

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