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Saturday, December 15, 2012

2 Saturday Bowl Picks

PICKS and PREVIEWS BELOW - Arizona i am taking -8, and Utah State 1Q -3

New Mexico Bowl - Nevada vs Arizona

This game opened at Arizona -9.5 and the O/U set at 75

Currently this game is at Arizona -8 and the O/U at 80, so there has
been a lot of movement on the side and total.

This game pits the top two running backs in College football this
year; Arizona has Ka'Deem Carey averaging 146 yards per game and
Nevada has Stefphon Jefferson averaging 142 yards per game. Nevada's
defense gives up over 210 rushing yards per game and Arizona's defense
is allowing 190 yards rushing per game, so even in the mid 30s I
expect some points to be scored early and often.

The advantage in this game for me is to the more tested Arizona
Wildcats who have been consistent throughout the season in putting up
points and playing well after losses. Outside of blowout losses to
UCLA and Oregon, the Wildcats knocked off USC and lost to Stanford by
6. The Wolfpack's top win is against Cal at Cal...not that impressive.

Nevada is 0-7 in games when the O/U is set at 63+, 2-8-1 ATS in their
last non-conference games, and 0-4-1 ATS in bowl games as a program.

Arizona is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 coming off a home game scoring
and allowing 31+ points

The time off to heal up, practice, and prepare to stop Jefferson will
give the edge to the Wildcats. Nevada solely depends on their ground
game while the Wildcats can throw the deep ball well.

My pick for this game is Arizona -8 as I think they can cover and get
up early in this game. They are the better team, they are faster, and
can put up points quick running the ball and throwing the ball.
Stopping the run isn't the thing they do best, but with a few weeks to
prepare I expect them to contain Jefferson and get ahead early in this

PICK - ARIZONA -8 3* selection

Potato Bowl - Toledo @ Utah State

This game opened at Utah State -9.5 and the total at 57.5. Currently
the line is set at Utah State -10.5 and the total at 58.5

Utah State is 10-1-1 ATS on the season and they bolster one of the
nations stingiest defenses only allowing 15 ppg and 111 yards rushing
per game. This will be an issue for Toledo who is a team that depends
a lot on their ground game.

Utah State's QB Chuckie Keeton is 14th in the nation in passing
efficiency, the Aggies have won 6 straight games, and the Aggies
should have more fans at this game.

Toledo has question marks in this game as star running back David
Fluellen is coming off an ankle injury, star qb Terrance Owens missed
the regular season finale and he is a game time decision for this
game. Worth noting, the senior backup Austin Danton had a nice
fill-in performance for Owens against Akron throwing 5 TD passes to
close the season on a high note.

The biggest advantage in this game is Utah State's highly efficient
offense against the Toledo defense that ranks 104th in the nation and
allows over 411 total yards per game.

I think this is a big game for Utah State and for their program. Utah
State is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games. I like
Utah State to win this game and win this game in a big way.

My pick however is an interesting one and it is for a nice amount.

Utah State has outscored their opponents 131-6 in the 1st quarter this
season and I expect that trend to continue today. Utah State is -3 in
the 1Q and I think they go up 10-0 to open the game. This defense has
too much speed and tenacity and Toledo will not be able to get it
going until the 2nd quarter.

I do like Utah State to cover the 10.5 points and win this game 42-21,
but i feel much more confident in a fast start for the Aggies in the
first quarter.

PICK - UTAH STATE -3 1st -QUARTER 6* Selection

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