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Thursday, December 27, 2012

College Bowl Picks 12/27/12 - 01/01/13

-2.1 overall
5-6 ats

have slipped last 5 selections, big turnaround here over the next few days

writeups to follow

12/27 games

san jose state -7 3* selection

cincy/duke over 60.5 4* selection

baylor/ucla over 81 5* selection

12/28 games

UL-Monroe/Ohio over 61 3*

UL-Monroe -7 2*

Rutgers/V Tech under 41 4*

Texas Tech -13 5*

12/29 games

Air Force/Rice over 61.5 4*

Navy +14.5 2*

WVA/Cuse over 73 7*

Oregon State -3 5*

TCU -3 3*

TCU/MSU under 41 3*

12/31 games

NC State/Vandy under 52 3*

GTech/USC over 64 5*

Iowa State -1 2*

Clemson/LSU over 5*

1/1 games

Purdue/OK ST over 70 9*

OK ST -16.5 7*

Northwestern +1.5 5*

South Carolina -6 2*

UGA -10 3*

UGA/Nebraska under 60.5 3*

Stanford -6.5 4*

Northern Illinois +13.5 2*

1/2 -National Championship to come

Saturday, December 22, 2012



New York Giants -1 @ Baltimore

The Giants are coming off an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the
Falcons. The Giants are given the benefit of the doubt because we've
seen them look terrible before only to turn it on for a late season
run. However, I don't think this particular incarnation of the Giants
has the ferocity to make a serious run. Hakeem Nicks is either hurt
or someone stole his powers (think Austin Powers 2) and Bradshaw has
failed to consistently stay on the field. A week ago I extolled the
virtues of David Wilson. He excelled in his first game as the
featured back but regressed in the second. However, I think that may
have been due in large part to the ever increasing point deficit.
Baltimore's defense can't seem to stop anyone on the ground. With
Bradshaw and Wilson splitting reps, the load should come off of Eli
considerably this week.

Flacco isn't playing well. He has options at receiver and tight end,
an all pro caliber running back and serviceable line but he has failed
to take that next step. He may be the Medoza line for NFL QB's. Any
worse and you might as well rebuild, any better and you're competing
for the playoffs. Flacco has the physical tools but something's
missing that prevents him from taking the next step. The Giants run
the ball all over Baltimore and Flacco fails to do enough for the win.

NYG 23 BAL 20

Buffalo @ Miami -4.5

Buffalo is bad. Ryan Fitzpatrick is living off his early season
stretch from a year ago. He's a backup QB. He's got a few weapons
but he rarely shows the ability or aptitude to take full advantage of
them. Defensively, Mario Williams is playing well but certainly
nowhere near the Bills hoped when the inked that free agent deal.
Buffalo struggles in almost every facet of the game. Miami, on the
other hand, isn't that bad. In fact, they're a good-bad team. Reggie
Bush has quietly put together another solid year (just under 900 yards
and 5 TDs) and Ryan Tannahill isn't the train wreck I expected him to
be coming into the season. He's a big strong guy who flashes
brilliance. Brian Hartline even eclipsed the 1k mark last week in
receiving yards. Defensively, Miami excels against the run. CJ
Spiller isn't likely to find day light running into the Dolphins
front. Miami's secondary leaves something to be desired, but they
parted ways in the offseason with a couple of key veterans as a part
of an overall culture change. Those moves left the defense vulnerable
to the passing attack but I think the Miami brass sees that as a
growing pain. They're trending in the right direction as the Bills
head south. Look for the Dolphins to finish strong and build
expectations for next year.

BUFF 17 MIA 24


3-3 in bowl game bets this year, +5.7 units

2 games saturday

ECU @ UL-LAFAYETTE -6.5 / 67

both teams come in with 3 game winning streaks

trends show that in non-conference games over the last three years the
over is 9-2 with UL-LAF, they also show that over the last three years
when ECU plays a team with a winning record they are 2-8 in ten games

I like UL-Lafayette to cover the spread in this game. This is a home
game as it is played in the Superdome and it is on turf so itll be a
fast track for these two teams.

Flat out ECU scores 26+ in this game just because they make explosive
plays in the passing game. I put this game at 41-31 in favor of

Considering its a nationally televised game, the points will flourish
early, i will up the total, get on with the public, and also take this
under in what has the makings of a shootout written all over it.

2 Picks in this game

UL LAF -6.5 3* pick
OVER 67 5* pick

Washington vs Boise State -5.5 / 43.5

Two physical styled teams in this matchup. Both have better defenses
than their offenses, and while they are not on the Blue Turf, i give
the edge to the move senior laden team of Boise State. This should be
a defensive battle and I expect more field goals than touchdowns.

Boise held Nevada to just 227 yards rushing on 47 attempts, theyve
caused 11 turnovers in their last 5 games (4-1) and they didn;t allow
over 21 points in those games either

Washington has caused 19 turnovers in their last 5 games, only
allowing 120 yards per game rushing in their last five games, but
Keith Price and their offense has been inconsistent all year.

Take the under in this game, the sharpe money is on it and the public
will jump on the over and push the line backup ti 44.5/45 area.

Under 43.5 3*

RECORD - 1-2 on Friday in the ball state game
3-3 overall (+5.3 units)

Friday, December 21, 2012

BALL STATE +7.5 vs Central Florida

Friday Night

Beef O'Brady Bowl

BALL STATE VS Central Florida

Trends I like here -

Ball State on the season is 9-3 ATS, and 14-4 on Turf in the Last 3
years. This team is fast on both sides of the ball and they have won
their past 4 games in this fashion of 31-24 type of scores

Central Florida has been a team where the Over has been favorable;
10-3 this season. But in the last 3 years in non-conference games the
trend is 9-2 in favor of the UNDER

UCF played TULSA is 2 of the last 3 weeks and lost both games throwing
for under 200 yards in both and averaging under 3 yards per carry,
the fact that they couldn't win either game especially with the IN
BETWEENER beeing a blowout against UAB makes me question the
preparation for Ball State

I have 3 plays for this game

UNDER 59.5 3* Pick

BALL STATE +7.5 4* Pick


I really like Ball State getting this many points as these two teams
are evenly matched but i see no reason for UCF to be "up" for it. I
like the under for the fact that ball state has had over a month to
prepare for the orthodox offense of UCF

9units on the line

record - 2-1 +8.7 units

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Fwd: poinsetta bowl

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Daniel Overcash" <>
Date: Dec 20, 2012 3:53 PM
Subject: poinsetta bowl
To: "Dan Kozek" <>, "Frederick (Tripp) Weber" <>, "Mitch Heckert" <>, "Ryan Overcash" <>, "Brad Miller" <>

byu vs sdsu

byu has one of the best defenses in the nation, especially against the run, sdsu is a one dimensional team and their qb has yet to play in a big game this year since taking over

byu is a defense and field position type of team, only allowing 15 ppg

sdsu has.a decent defense that will.contain the limited offense of byu, but I flat out see the byu field.position battle being the difference in this game

line has been out for over two weeks and it has slightly dropped since opening at 48 total points

6* bet   UNDER 47.5

byu 17 sdsu 13

record 1-1 (+2.7)

Sunday, December 16, 2012

nfl picks sunday week 15

released earlier this week

texans -8.5
lions -5.5

today added picks

patriots -4
bucs +3.5

good luck

Saturday, December 15, 2012

2 Saturday Bowl Picks

PICKS and PREVIEWS BELOW - Arizona i am taking -8, and Utah State 1Q -3

New Mexico Bowl - Nevada vs Arizona

This game opened at Arizona -9.5 and the O/U set at 75

Currently this game is at Arizona -8 and the O/U at 80, so there has
been a lot of movement on the side and total.

This game pits the top two running backs in College football this
year; Arizona has Ka'Deem Carey averaging 146 yards per game and
Nevada has Stefphon Jefferson averaging 142 yards per game. Nevada's
defense gives up over 210 rushing yards per game and Arizona's defense
is allowing 190 yards rushing per game, so even in the mid 30s I
expect some points to be scored early and often.

The advantage in this game for me is to the more tested Arizona
Wildcats who have been consistent throughout the season in putting up
points and playing well after losses. Outside of blowout losses to
UCLA and Oregon, the Wildcats knocked off USC and lost to Stanford by
6. The Wolfpack's top win is against Cal at Cal...not that impressive.

Nevada is 0-7 in games when the O/U is set at 63+, 2-8-1 ATS in their
last non-conference games, and 0-4-1 ATS in bowl games as a program.

Arizona is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 coming off a home game scoring
and allowing 31+ points

The time off to heal up, practice, and prepare to stop Jefferson will
give the edge to the Wildcats. Nevada solely depends on their ground
game while the Wildcats can throw the deep ball well.

My pick for this game is Arizona -8 as I think they can cover and get
up early in this game. They are the better team, they are faster, and
can put up points quick running the ball and throwing the ball.
Stopping the run isn't the thing they do best, but with a few weeks to
prepare I expect them to contain Jefferson and get ahead early in this

PICK - ARIZONA -8 3* selection

Potato Bowl - Toledo @ Utah State

This game opened at Utah State -9.5 and the total at 57.5. Currently
the line is set at Utah State -10.5 and the total at 58.5

Utah State is 10-1-1 ATS on the season and they bolster one of the
nations stingiest defenses only allowing 15 ppg and 111 yards rushing
per game. This will be an issue for Toledo who is a team that depends
a lot on their ground game.

Utah State's QB Chuckie Keeton is 14th in the nation in passing
efficiency, the Aggies have won 6 straight games, and the Aggies
should have more fans at this game.

Toledo has question marks in this game as star running back David
Fluellen is coming off an ankle injury, star qb Terrance Owens missed
the regular season finale and he is a game time decision for this
game. Worth noting, the senior backup Austin Danton had a nice
fill-in performance for Owens against Akron throwing 5 TD passes to
close the season on a high note.

The biggest advantage in this game is Utah State's highly efficient
offense against the Toledo defense that ranks 104th in the nation and
allows over 411 total yards per game.

I think this is a big game for Utah State and for their program. Utah
State is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games. I like
Utah State to win this game and win this game in a big way.

My pick however is an interesting one and it is for a nice amount.

Utah State has outscored their opponents 131-6 in the 1st quarter this
season and I expect that trend to continue today. Utah State is -3 in
the 1Q and I think they go up 10-0 to open the game. This defense has
too much speed and tenacity and Toledo will not be able to get it
going until the 2nd quarter.

I do like Utah State to cover the 10.5 points and win this game 42-21,
but i feel much more confident in a fast start for the Aggies in the
first quarter.

PICK - UTAH STATE -3 1st -QUARTER 6* Selection

Sunday, December 9, 2012

4Pack for Sunday NFL picks

Giants -5 
Browns -6.5

these two plays were released earlier this week

Bears -1
Colts -4

good luck

Eric loves Baltimore today

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Sunday NFL 5 Pack - Picks Against the Spread

Over 41 San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams

Last time these two met they went into overtime and ended with a tie.
Things won't go that way this time around. With Kaepernick behind
center the 49ers now I have a true deep ball thrower and their offense
is even more explosive. The Rams will be able to do 13-17 points and
I expect this to be at least a 10 point win for the 49ers. Expect the
ground and pound from Frank Gore, but the deep ball to Davis,
Crabtree, and Randy Moss to come into play.

Pick - Over 41 - 49ers 34 - Rams 17

Detroit Lions -5 vs Indianapolis Colts

The Lions have played some good teams very tough lately, and they are
due for a big win in front of their home crowd. The Colts are coming
off an emotional home win with the Head Coach battling cancer in
attendance. Luck will put up some big yards in this game, but I think
the Lions will hold them to field goals and the big plays of Stafford
to Megatron wil be in full effect. Take the Lions to win by atleast a
touchdown in this matchup.

Pick - Lions -5 Detroit 30 - Indy 20

Houston Texans - 6.5 @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans are not a good football team, and that being said the
Texans are a good football team that desperately needs to remind
themselves that they have a very talented and formiddable defense. JJ
Watt will be a dominant force up front, but can the over-exploited
secondary of the Texans step up to the plate this week and shut down
the attack from Jake Locker. Schaub has been fantastic over the past
three games and I fully expect him to have another good stat day
against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans will
emphasize the run and they should be very active on defense.

Pick -- Texans -6.5 Houston 27 - Tennessee 13

Over 46 Cincinatti @ San Diego

The Bengals have had no issues putting up points of late and I think
the Chargers are due in a big way here. All the talk of Norv being
done in San DIego are true, but this is a great test for Norv and for
Phil Rivers to step up and perform in a big way and basically audition
for a new coaching gig. The Bengals will get caught sleeping early
and have to play catchup which is why I love this number.

Pick - Over 46 Chargers 30 - Bengals 27

Over 45 Packers vs Vikings

Percy Harvin is out, Charles Woodson is out, and Clay Matthews is out.
Expect AP to have success running the ball and Ponder will use the
play action pass to open up the field. On the other end, after an
embarassing loss on primetime television, yeah, expect Rodgers to go
off on the Vikings secondary. I like points and I think we will see a
high scoring game at half time.

Pick - Over 45 Packers 33 - Vikings 20

Saturday College Football 3-Pack

As promised, for those that follow, I have been red hot in college football the past 6 weeks (18-7-1) 72%, so I will begin posting selections and I will also post picks and write ups for every bowl game this year.

Today I see three on the board that I like:

In order-

#1 Kansas State -10.5 - This is the last time heisman hopeful C. Klein will be on the national stage.  A two week layoff after an embarassing loss to Baylor on the road  will have Kansas State more than ready to take on a Texas team that will not be up for the challenge.  What does KSU do best? Run the football.  What does Texas' defense struggle most with? Stopping the run!  Kansas State will be up for this game on both ends of the ball, and expect Klein to put up big numbers for one last heisman push.  One sided game here, Kansas State's defense will shine.

Pick- Kansas State 42 - Texas 17

#2 - Over 57.5 Baylor vs Nevada - Let's not forget the upset Nevada pulled off two years ago when they eliminated Boise from a BCS National Championship bid. Boise can score points and their defense will create turnovers.  Nevada can run the ball very well so I expect them to score early, and then collect a garbage score or two late in the 4th quarter.  Boise gets the win, but Nevada keeps the score high with a few late scores.

Pick  - Boise 40 - Nevada 28

#3 Pittsburgh -6 - South Florida has a good defense, but since the broken.ankle to BJ Daniels their offense has suffered mightily.   Pitt has play well of late, and the production of star running back Ray Graham has been key.  Pitt's defense has also been formiddable all season and I expect turnovers to help our cause. Pitt wins a low scoring affair.

Pick -  Pittsburgh 24 - South Florida 10

Good luck and stay tuned for the Sunday 5 Pack to be posted later today.