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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Danny's Week 4 Picks

Danny ATS (24-23-2)

New England @ Buffalo +4

Julian Edelman is out for the Patriots.  He has been a go-to player for Brady.  Will this be the week that Wes Welker steps up and provides fantasy owners with 12 receptions for 124 yards and a TD?  I am not so sure about that.  What I am sure about is the effort that the Bills will be bringing on Sunday.  This is a big game for them and I expect their defense to step up in a big way.  I don’t think they win because of the injuries in the backfield (CJ Spiller out, Fred Jackson questionable), but I think they can keep this game within reach due in a large part to the explosive plays Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are capable of.  No chance in hell Brady and Belichick lose three in a row.  Patriots win by a touchdown.

Pick -    Patriots 30 – Bills 23


Minnesota @ Detroit -4

I do not believe in the hype for the Vikings just yet.  Even with a depleted secondary I don’t expect the Lions to have a hard time keeping Christian Ponder in check.  Assuming the defensive line is able to keep Adrian Peterson from having a big day, the Lions should have a solid win at home.  Stafford is expected to play (hip/hamstring) so expect some productive numbers from Megatron, Burleson, and Pettigrew.

Pick -   Lions 27 - Vikings 16


Carolina @ Atlanta -7

My preseason pick was the Panthers to surprise the NFC South and the NFC in general.  That doesn’t look like such a good pick.  If this game was in Carolina I would give the Panthers a shot to rebound here.   Matt Ryan is too hot, and the Falcons defense is ranked 4th overall.  Good luck Cam, but I think the Falcons will have no problem in this one.

Pick -   Atlanta 31 - Carolina 20


San Francisco @ New York Jets +4.5

This line is deceiving isn’t it?  Back to back long road trips for the 49ers is an issue, but a sour loss to the Vikings (and the news or Revis)  will clearly motivate the 49ers to come out playing with ferocity on both offense and defense.  Mark Sanchez won’t know what to do against the 49ers defense.  And I think Alex Smith and Vernon Davis will hook up for a nice day.  Take the 49ers for an easy win.

Pick - 49ers 20 - Jets 7


San Diego @ Kansas City +1

Tough spot for the Chargers coming off a bad loss at home, now they have to go into Arrowhead Stadium where the crowd will make it a very tough environment to play in.  In 13 games against Kansas City in his career Philip Rivers has a qb rating of 84.3 and a 17/14 TD to INT ratio. In 5 starts at Kansas City Rivers is 2-3, so clearly this will be a tough game for Phil. While  I think the Chargers are the better team, I think they have the better quarterback and the better defense, but these numbers tell me that Rivers will struggle a bit on the road and that the Chiefs, coming off an emotional win in New Orleans, will find a way to get it done against the Chargers.

Pick - Chiefs 24 - Chargers 23


Tennessee @ Houston -12

I like the home team in this matchup.  Keep in mind that the Titans offense only scored 23 points last week and 7 were from a crazy catch made by Nate Washington.  Schaub and his boys handle their business.

Pick - Texans 30 – Titans 10


Seattle @ St. Louis +3

The Seahawks defense is going to dominate this game.  Can Russell Wilson and the offense of the Seahawks put up a few points and get a solid win on the road against an improving Rams team?  Yes and the defense probably score a td themselves.

Pick – Seattle 16 – Rams 9



Miami @ Arizona -6

Again, another dominating NFC West defense will get it done on Sunday.  The Dolphins are without Reggie Bush, and Tannehill will get eaten up by the Cardinals defense.  The Cardinals defense dominated the game against Seattle, played phenomenal against the Patriots in New England, and flat out destroyed Michael Vick last weekend.  Lock this up for an easy win for the Cardinals.  Kolb will continue to impress when he is connecting with Larry Fitz 9-10 times in this game.

Pick - ****Cardinals 24 - Dolphins 6


Oakland @ Denver -7

Peyton Manning should have a nice day against the Oakland Raiders secondary that played horrible against Pittsburgh.  The Broncos have enough defense to keep the Raiders offense from putting up big points.  Expect Janikowski to do most of the scoring for the Raiders in this one.  I see a big win for the Broncos here.  Big spot for Manning to perform in front of his home crowd.

Pick - Broncos 31 - Raiders 20



Cincinnati @ Jacksonville +1.5

Just when I thought about taking the home team in this game I went through some stats and said “No chance.”  The Jaguars just are not playing well on defense and it will cost them in this game against a very diverse Bengals offense.  AJ Green, BenJarvus, Dalton, and Gresham are all hot starts this week in fantasy.  Stop MJD and the Bengals will win this easily.

Pick - ***Bengals 26 – Jaguars 16



New Orleans @ Green Bay -7.5

The Packers are third in total yards allowed, while the Saints are thirty second.  The Packers are third in sacks, while the Saints are 18th.  Saints will be 0-4 following a blowout loss to the highly motivated Green Bay Packers.

Pick - ****Packers 44 – Saints 24


Washington @ Tampa Bay -2.5

The Redskins and Bucs are the two worst teams against the pass in the NFL.  The Bucs are extremely good against the run (#1 in the NFL) but that will change on Sunday when RG3 and the Redskins find ways to execute running the football in order to exploit the Bucs secondary.  The Skins need this win to save face from the past two weeks.  Are they for real or are the Saints just that bad?  A mix of both in my mind, but the Redskins find a way to get a win in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Pick -   Washington 34 – Tampa Bay 30


New York Giants @ Philadelphia -2.5

You know this game will be an instant classic after the performance that Michael Vick put on against the Cardinals on Sunday.  Vick and Andy Reid will have a very strong game plan for the Giants, and I believe the Eagles defense will play the best they have all year in this game on Sunday night.  This rivalry is crazy, and the Eagles fans will be going insane.  Eli Manning has shown that he can play in any stadium; any environment at any time, but this will be entirely different.  The Eagles are 2-1 and no one knows how good or how bad they actually are.  The defense has shown signs of brilliance, but at times the secondary looks so out of whack.  The offense has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, but they also have moved the ball up and down the field on teams at ease (except for most of the Arizona game).  The Eagles will get their swag back on Sunday night on a nationally televised game.

Pick - Eagles 30 – Giants 26


Chicago @ Dallas -3.5

This is such an interesting game.  Both teams have shown great things defensively, but both teams have struggled with consistency on offense.  The edge at quarterback goes to the home team, Romo has been better than Cutler.  The edge defensively goes to the Bears as they have more interceptions, forced fumbled, pass deflections, sacks, and are better against the run.  Coaching clearly goes to Chicago as Jason Garrett has been suspect since icing his own kicker last season.  This is a tough game to pick because of how bad Cutler has been the past two weeks; he didn’t really have a convincing performance against the Rams.  Romo has struggled since the Giants win, and Dez Bryant has not been a probowl type receiver this season.  I like the points in this game; I think the Bears offer a bigger challenge defensively for the Cowboys than the Cowboys do for the Bears.  If Cutler can limit mental mistakes and if Forte comes back for this one the edge goes to the Bears.


Pick - Bears 20 – Cowboys 17

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