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Saturday, October 10, 2009


Here are my picks for Week 5 in the NFL:

ATS- 37-25
SU- 40-22


Minnesota (-10.5) @ St. Louis - The Rams are 0-4 and are not a good football team. Kyle Boller looks like he is getting the nod once again as Mark Bulger will be out. The Rams aren't good. Their offense is pathetic, their defense consistently gets beat, and their special teams shows no signs of urgency. Stephen Jackson is a positive on this St. Louis offense, but when your down by 20 points entering the 4th quarter, how many carries are you really going to get? The Vikings are too much for the Rams. The Rams defense is allowing 135 yards per game on the ground, that being said, this is great news for Adrian Peterson owners. With Brett Farve not having to do much, I look for Peterson and Taylor to have a combined monster game and dominate the Rams. Vikings over the Rams 30 - 10.

Dallas (-8.5) @ Kansas City - The Cowboys are in need of a monster win. Tony Romo looked awful last week, and his numbers through the first four weeks don't look much better. Ranked 21st in the NFL in quarterback rating, behind Kyle Orton, Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Kevin Kolb, and Seneca Wallace, Romo is in desperate need of a huge game. With Roy Williams out, I look for Crayton and Hurd to develop much needed chemistry with Romo this week. Obviously Romo and Witten have their relationship, but he is in dire need of having that type of chemistry with a receiver. I think Patrick Crayton is that guy. Crayton is due, and with Williams out I love Crayton's matchup this week. The Chiefs will score a TD late, but Dallas will own this game. They are much bigger and stronger than the Chiefs, and it will pay off on Sunday. With all the doubters in the world hoping for a Dallas loss in Kansas City this week, I look for Romo to rise to the occasion and have a tremendous game. Dallas over the Chiefs 27 - 10.

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-15.5) -
The Eagles are coming off a bye week so this is a guaranteed win, so let's analyze by how many points they will win bye. With a healthy McNabb, a somewhat healthy Westbrook, and a very hungry new leader on the defense (J Trott) I think the Eagles are ready to fly high. The Bucs have the worst defense in the NFC allowing 394 yards per game. So far all things are pointing to the Eagles. Did I mention this is an Eagles home game after a bye week. Easy win for the Eagles. Philly over Tampa 34 - 13.

Pittsburgh (-11) @ Detroit - The Lions allowed 48 points last week. The Steelers scored 35 against San Diego. The Steelers will continue their offensive onslaught this week as they travel to Detroit for the game against the Tigers. Stafford will be out due to his injury last week, and Daunte Culpepper will be receiving the start for the Lions. This, in my opinion, bodes extremely well for the Steelers. With the defensive line starting to pile up some sacks (2/game) and only allowing 62 yards per game on the ground, I would predict that Detroit is in for a long day. I think Culpepper will make the offense sputter a bit and that will kill them against Big Ben. Ben and Hines get it done in Detroit, Pitt over Detroit 30 - 9.

Washington @ Carolina (-4) - The Panthers are desperate for a win coming off of the bye week. Jim Zorn is desperate for another win coming off a putrid performance against the Bucs. The way I see it, the bye week will help the Panthers out in a great way. Jake Delhomme should light up the Redskins defense that is ranked 18th overall when playing on the road. Carolina over Washington 24 - 13.

Oakland @ New York Giants (-15.5) - No problem here as the Raiders have nothing going and can't stop the run. The Giants have a terrific run game, and it looks like Eli will be playing. Giants over the Raiders 24 - 3.

Rest of Games -

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6) -
The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 October home games. The Browns just lost their best receiver, are 0-4, and are coming off a really tough loss. Buffalo over Cleveland 24 - 13.

Cincinnati (+8.5) @ Baltimore -
The Ravens are coming off an emotional loss, while the Bengals are happy to have escaped Cleveland with a win. Carson Palmer has an 88.4 career QB rating when playing the Ravens, and Chad Ocho Cinco has a prepared touchdown dance ready this week. I really like Cinci to keep it close with Flacco and his boys. Baltimore wins at home over the Bengals 24 - 20.

Atlanta @ San Francisco (-3) -
The 49ers defense is legit and it will be on display on Sunday against Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. This will be a low scoring game and Shaun Hill will lead the 49ers to a victory. 49ers over the Falcons 17 - 13.

New England (-3.5) @ Denver -
Bill Belichick will not lose to a former coordinator of his. End of story. Denver is good, their defense is very good, but they haven't played a pretty good team yet. New England is pretty good and they will exploit the Broncos defense with short, quick passes. Patriots over the Broncos 20 - 10.

Houston (+5.5) @ Arizona -
Neither defense is good, so this should be a shootout. Houston is coming off a very good defensive effort against the Raiders and that should give them the confidence to win outright in Arizona. Houston over Arizona 30 - 27.

Jacksonville @ Seattle (+3.5) -
The Seahawks should be getting Matt Hasselbeck back this week, and I think he will bring the energy back to Seattle and get the victory at home. Seattle over Jacksonville 23 - 20.

Indianapolis (-4) @ Tennessee -
The Titans are desperate for a win, but the Colts are too hot. Peyton will get the job done against the second worst ranked pass defense in the league. Maybe Vince Young will see time? Colts over the Titans 24 - 17.

New York Jets (-2) @ Miami -
The Jets of old would lose this game because of the loss in New Orleans. The new, Rex Ryan Jets, will win this game. Their defense stops the run, and will eat up Chad Henne. Mark Sanchez won't be great, but he'll bounce back and get the victory here. New York over Miami 17 - 7.

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