Thursday, October 15, 2009
Week 6 Start 'Em/ Sit 'Em
Here are my fantasy picks for Week 6 in the NFL:
1. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) - Arizona is allowing over 300 yards through the air per game and Hasselbeck is coming off a monster game at home last week against the Jaguars. Arizona allowed David Garrard to throw for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns two weeks ago when the Cards ripped the Jags 31-17. Look for Hasselbeck to continue his success from last week when he went for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns against Jacksonville at home. Hasselbeck has a career 88 QB rating against the Cardinals in 14 games, look for that rating to increase after this weekend. 270+ and 3 touchdowns is not hard to fathom this weekend.
2. Phillip Rivers (SD) - I do not know why you would ever think about not starting Phillip, but going against the Broncos defense I can see you second guessing him. Rivers is a starter every week no matter who he plays. The Broncos just shut down Tom Brady and I know Rivers was glued to the TV the entire game watching Brady miss open throws and seeing flaws in the secondary coverage of the Broncos. Rivers also has the luxury of coming off a bye week which allowed him even more time to prepare for this game. The Broncos have allowed Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, and Tom Brady all to throw for over 215 yards. The Broncos shut down Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell only allowing a combined 220 yards passing. In 7 career games vs Denver, Rivers has a 113 QB rating and a 3:1 TD to INT ratio. I love Rivers against the Broncos this week.
1. Matt Cassel (KC) - I know a lot of people are predicting an upset in Washington, but I do not like Cassel as a fantasy option this week. Whether they win or lose will depend a lot of Larry Johnson over Cassel. The Skins are 2nd in the NFL in home defense against the pass only allowing 110 yards per game. Sit Cassel for another option this week.
1. Rashard Mendenhall & Willie Parker (PITT): The Steelers have been running the ball a lot more due to the success Mendenhall has been having in the ground game. With Parker back healthy this week, look for the Steelers to pound the Browns NFL-worst run defense with this two-headed punch of Mendenhall and Parker. I think Parker will step his game up this week as well, due to the fact his starting job is not safe.
2. Brian Westbrook (PHI) - This will be the game that will make fantasy owners happy for the first time in 6 weeks. Westbrook will get more touches running the ball and I expect a screen or two to go his way. He had a good, healthy week of practice and I know he expects a lot out of himself this week to bolster his confidence as the Eagles head to Washington next week and host the Giants the following week.
3. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Stewart is once again healthy, and the Panthers take on the Bucs this week where Stewart has had success before in his career. Stewart had 10 rushes last week, while the Panthers ran it 29 times. The Panthers need to get back to their ground attack like they had last year in order to get some more wins this season. Stewart is a pivotal part in their ground attack, and spelling Williams and taking goal-line carriers is a value for fantasy owners.
1. Julius Jones (SEA) - Jones has only surpassed the 100 yard mark once this season, opening Sunday against St. Louis. Since then, Jones has averaged only 12 rushes per game for 42 yards per game. That is only 3.36 yards per carry in his last 4 games and he has accumulated only 168 rushing yards in his last 4 games combined. With a hot Hasselbeck, and the Seahawks going against the NFL's top ranked rushing defense, and the NFL's worst ranked passing defense, you get my idea of Jones' value this week. I see maybe 40-60 yards and 25 through the air.
1. Kevin Walter (HOU) - Cincinnati is coming off a huge win for the franchise last week in Baltimore. Whether Cinci wins this game or not is still a question, but they better be ready for the high-flying passing attack of the Texans. The Texans put up 207 yards in 28 plays over 3 drives in the 3rd and 4th quarter of last weeks game. The Texans are coming into this game fuming over there goal-line loss last week to the Cardinals, and they will be very prepared to score early and often against the Bengals defense. The Bengals defense is allowing 250 yards per game at home through the air (24th in the NFL) and the Texans are the NFL's best road passing attack averaging 364 yards through the air on the road. This is a great sign for Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and more importantly, Kevin Walter. Walter was targeted 6 times last week and caught 4 passes. Look for those numbers to increase as the Bengals will put heavy coverage on Johnson all game which will free up Walter in man coverage. Walter has big potential this week. I am looking for something around 110 and a TD.
2. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) - Clearly everyone is hot on Maclin after last week (142 yards, 2 td's, 6 recs, 8 targets). With Asomugha covering DeSean Jackson this week, look for Maclin to take advantage of his single coverage with a few deep balls heading his way from McNabb. The Giants put up 44 on Oakland last week, look for the Eagles to do the same this week. This will be a no-contest victory, but Maclin will stay in to get extra reps from Kolb. 8 receptions 100+ yards is feasible.
SIT 'EM -
1. Dwayne Bowe (KC) - I don't like Cassel this week, and I really don't like Bowe this week. The Redskins shut down teams passing attack when they play at home, only allowing 110 yards through the air at home which ranks them 2nd in that category. The Skins will be putting pressure on Cassel, and with DeAngelo Hall on Bowe, I will put money that Cassel will be targeting Bradley and Wade more often than Bowe. Take away his 16 yard touchdown reception against the Cowboys last week, and Bowe's game would have been: 4 receptions for 58 yards. That is what I expect this week. Sit him.