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Saturday, November 14, 2009

*Week 10 Selections

Current Record:

ATS: 72 - 58 - 1 (Week 1- 1-0)
SU: 83 - 46

***Top Plays for the Weekend

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7) - The Jaguars put no pressure on the quarterback (8 sacks in 8 games), they get beat by the run (120 yards per game), and they get beat by the pass (243 yards per game). The Jets had an extra week to prepare for this game, Mark Sanchez has had two straight games of a QB Rating over 100, and the Jets running game is on fire (761 rushing yards the past 3 games). With the extra week to prepare for the Jaguars, I expect Rex Ryan's defense to come out and shut down the Jaguars offense. Mark Sanchez won't need to do much as the Jets will be running the ball early and often. New York Jets get back over .500 as they take down the Jaguars 27 - 14.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins -
The Redskins are without Clinton Portis, and let's not forget Chris Cooley, so I am already in trouble trying to find ways they will put points on the board. The Broncos need to get back to running the football with Moreno and Buckhalter, and using their ground game to open up the passing attack with Kyle Orton. Orton was playing above his potential the first 6 games of the season, but he is still a good quarterback that can win games for this Denver football team. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in games, but after Michael Turner burned them on the ground for over 160 yards, I really like the Broncos in this matchup. Favored on the road by 3.5 points, Vegas is telling you that they will win this game. Take the Broncos to win 20 - 10 in this defensive matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
- Steelers nation will be in full affect this weekend as the Bengals come to town. Cincy is coming off a huge win over Baltimore last week where RB Cedric Benson went over 100 yards rushing for the second time this season against the Ravens, the first time that has happened since 1997 (Jerome Bettis PITT). Pittsburgh looked great last weekend, and Big Ben is playing at such a high level this season. So far he is 4th in QB Rating (104),1st in Completion % (70.6), 5th in yards per game (286), and has taken 3 less sacks than last year at this point in the season. Big Ben is the difference maker in this game. I take the better quarterback in this matchup, and the Steelers defense will shut down Benson. If Benson is unsuccessful running the ball, the Bengals offense will sputter. Steelers over the Bengals 27 - 13.

Buffalo Bills @ **Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
- The Titans are rolling right now, while the Bills were lucky to have a bye week last week. That did nothing for them. The Titans are the hot hand and I will continue riding with them until they show me reason not too. Vince Young may not throw for over 100 yards, but I guarantee Chris Johnson runs for well over 100 yards. The Bills are dead last in run defense, giving up 174 yards a game, and I think that number increases this week. Tennessee all over Buffalo 24 - 7.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
- Not much needed to say here. Minnesota coming off a bye week, Detroit's quarterback coming off a 5 INT week, yeah...Vikings win this one 34 - 14.

***New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams
- The Saints are due for a large win, and it just so happens they play the Rams this week. The Rams give up 28 points a game and Drew Brees and company will thrive on that this week. The Saints offense and defense are too much to control for the Rams. New Orleans over St. Louis 45 - 10.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers
- DeAngelo Williams health is crucial in this game. If he is out the Panthers will really struggle on offense, but if he is healthy their offense will have a great opportunity against the Falcons run defense that ranks 24th in the NFL. For the Falcons, Roddy White is questionable, but they need to keep Michael Turner successfully running the ball. If Turner can run the ball for big chunks of yards and keep Williams and Smith off the field, Atlanta will win this game easily. I see the Panthers keeping it close, but a Matt Ryan touchdown pass to Gonzo of Jenkins will put the nail in the coffin. Falcons over the Panthers 30 - 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
****(-10) - Josh Freeman is making his first career road start in the NFL and they never go well. The Dolphins have played hard all season and they still have hopes for the playoffs. The Bucs, well, they are hoping to win more than 1 game this season. The Bucs defense will have a lot in front of them when trying to shut down the running attack of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown (averaging 150 yards per game). The Dolphins will have the home crowd behind them, and Joey Porter will be barking in Freeman's ear all game. This is a no-brainer. Dolphins over the Bucs 30 - 10.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders -
The Raiders do not have an edge because of being on a bye week, I actually see the Chiefs coming into this game with the edge as their offense was clicking in the 4th quarter of last week's game against Jacksonville. Matt Cassel and newly acquired, Chris Chambers connected for 2 scores and Cassel had a very productive 23-29 performance. I like the Chiefs to take down the Raiders 20 - 7.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8)
- The Seahawks will be playing catchup all game as the Cardinals offense is too powerful and has too many weapons to contain. The Cardinals will be able to pass and throw against the Seahawks defense that allows 320+ yards per game. The Cardinals will give up some points in the 4th quarter, as they did against Chicago, but if Kurt Warner protects the ball and if Wells and Hightower can run it successfully in their few carries the Cardinals will dominate Seattle. Arizona over Seattle 38 - 21.

***Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ San Diego Chargers
- Philly needs this game. Flat out, Philly needs this game. Phillip Rivers is a better quarterback right now than Donovan McNabb and usually I give the edge to teams with the better quarterback. But the Chargers defense is suspect. Merriman is not the same player "off the juice", and that is clearly evident in his play this season. Merriman has 4 sacks on the season (4 the past two weeks against Oak and NYG), 0 sacks during the first 7 weeks of the season. He is not the same GAME CHANGING LB that he used to be and that will be a big reason why the Eagles win this shoot out. McNabb has the weapons to exploit the Chargers defense, and now with a healthy Brian Westbrook who clearly should have fresh legs, the Eagles are just an offensive line away from having a Super Bowl caliber team. That being said, the Eagles defense will have to do their best to shut down Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. The Eagles usually struggle against big games TE's (Cooley, Boss, Shockey, Witten) and Gates should have decent numbers this game. I still give the win to the Eagles, the last time they played out west they were spoiled by the Raiders, but this time they are playing at 4:15 (which is 1pm eastern time) so they shouldn't be out of whack at all. The Eagles over the Chargers 34 - 28.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
- Injury Report for the Packers: OUT TE Jermichael Finley (knee), LB Aaron Kampman (concussion), LB Brady Poppinga (quadricep), T Mark Tauscher (knee). This does not bode well for the home team. Romo is hot, and when he isn't getting rushed and taking sacks he is a very good quarterback. I do not see him get pressured too often from a Packers defense (minus Kampman and Poppinga) that only has 13 sacks on the season. It's not that the Cowboys are just that good, it's more that the Packers are struggling that bad right now and Dallas will capitalize on it. I like Dallas by double digits in this game. Dallas over Green Bay 34 - 20.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts
- This is the Hall of Fame game for the NFL. Peyton vs Tom. There is no edge in quarterback's here, and honestly you could argue both this season. For the season Peyton is playing better, but the past 3 weeks Tom is playing better. Their stats are ridiculous: Peyton - 105 QB Rating, 1st in completion %, 2nd in passing yards, 2nd in TD passes, and is sacked less than 1 time per game. Tom - 99 QB Rating, 66 % completion percentage, 296 ypg, 16:5 TD to INT, and sacked only 10 times. These guys are phenomenal. However, the Colts secondary is in shambles. They are without Hayden, Jackson, and Sanders in their secondary. I am sorry Colts fans, but that is too easy for Brady. Quick Fact: New England is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis. Enough said. This is the bet of the weekend, New England easily over the Colts 34 - 24.

**Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns
- Brady Quinn is getting the start for the Browns. This will be the lowest rated televised game of the season for the NFL, let alone the worst Monday night game of the season. Baltimore is coming off a bad loss in Cincinnati in Week 9, so they will be firing on all cylinders against Cleveland. This will be a blow out to say the least. Flacco, Ray Rice, MaGahee, Mason, and Ray Lewis should all have big performances. Baltimore over Cleveland 27 - 3.

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