Thursday, November 5, 2009
Week 9 Picks
Here are my Picks without the previews, the previews will be up tomorrow.
Picks are in RED
**means TOP PLAYS--
Kansas City (+7) @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville has the 27th ranked home passing defense (allowing 252 yards per game) and I expect the Chiefs to throw, throw, and throw. Matt Cassel will have success through the air, while Maurice Jones-Drew should have success on the ground (I am hoping to see him get 18-24 carries) against the Chiefs defense that ranks 26th against the run. This will be a close game because Garrard will not be throwing as much due to last week. Jaguars get the win at home 20 -17.
**Baltimore (-3) @ Cincinnati - The Ravens look like they are back after last weeks performance at home against the Broncos. The Ravens defense only allowed 200 yard of offense and the offense had over 100 yards rushing and Flacco had a 109 QB rating. The Bengals are a very solid football team, but I do not like them coming off a bye week when they have the Ravens this week and the Steelers next week. They went into the bye week off a huge 35 point win over the Bears, and now they have to play the Ravens and Steelers that won't allow them to score 45 points combined over the next two weeks. The Ravens will shut down Cedric Benson, and that will cause problems for Carson Palmer. The reason Palmer has been so successful this season is due to the success of Benson. Teams have to respect the run game which allows Palmer and extra second or two to drop back, and also allows him to utilize the play-action pass very well. The Ravens will bring the kitchen sink this week on defense, and I really like the way Joe Flacco has been playing this season. Flacco to Rice is a great fall back for this offense. Ravens over the Bengals in Cincinnati 24 - 13.
**Houston (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Game of the week in my eyes. The Texans know that this is the most important game in the history of their franchise. If the Texans win, they can say that they can play with the big boys and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If they lose, they will have a hard time looking in the mirror and believing in themselves the rest of the season. Things got very interesting for this game when Indy announced CB Marlin Jackson is done for the season and S Bob Sanders is out as well. Also, Indy's other veteran CB Kelvin Hayden has been ruled out for this game. So you are telling me that Matt Schaub will be passing against 2nd teamers? Wow this game just got very interesting. Houston has been playing good defense ever since the second half of their game against Arizona. Houston has a legit shot at winning this game, and their team knows it. I think Houston will come out of the gates hard and really put some pressure on Manning. Houston will be leading this game at halftime, and I am picking them to come out on top at the end as well. Manning will keep it close, because of who he is, but because the Colts are 1-dimensional they will not win this game. Houston will pass, pass, and pass, and when they don't pass they have Moats and Slaton, two explosive style runners, coming out of the backfield. Houston will be all over Indy, 31 - 24.
Washington (+10) @ Atlanta - I like Washington in this matchup, coming off a bye, and the Falcons defense being who they are. But, the Falcons play so much better at home, and they need this win more than the Redskins. The Skins are done and they know it. They have a head coach on the side line who knows he won't be there in 2010. Matt Ryan is not a great start this weekend in fantasy football, but I think he will still rack up the yards allowing Michael Turner to cash them in for points. Atlanta over the Redskins 24 - 17.
Green Bay (-10) @ Tampa Bay - Aaron Rodgers is playing too well to have a slip up in Tampa Bay. Tampa is coming off a bye week so their first few drives should look better than they have so far this season. That being said, Josh Freeman, a rookie quarterback going against the 9th ranked passing defense in the NFL, will struggle. The Packers won't and I expect Ryan Grant to run all over the Bucs defense. Packers over the Bucs 35 - 16.
Arizona (+3) @ Chicago - The Bears won't have enough offense to keep up with the Cardinals passing game. Kurt Warner will not have two straight horrible games, so look for him to play pretty well against a defense that allows 21 points per game. The Cardinals looked shaky last week because of Carolina's run game, well, that is not the case this week. The Bears do not utilize their ground game enough to make it effective, instead they use Jay Cutler's arm to keep them in games. With the limited options they have on offense the Bears have played well through the first half of the season. I see them losing to the Cards at home on Sunday, due in part to the horrible loss they suffered to Carolina last week. The Cards bounce back in Chicago 30 - 20.
Miami @**New England (-11.5) - This is an easy pick for me. The Patriots are coming off a bye week, and like the Eagles after a bye, the Patriots always win. The preparation they have put into this game will be displayed on Sunday when they shut down the Wildcat and blow out the Dolphins. Miami played very poorly on offense against the Jets last week, but because of Ted Ginn Jr. they were able to capitalize on special teams. Won't happen here. Tom Brady exploits the Dolphins defense. New England over Miami 38 - 14.
Carolina @ New Orleans (-13) - New Orleans has a bad history against John Fox and the Carolina Panthers, but the Panthers aren't the same team we are used to seeing. They win games by running the ball, running the ball only. Jake Delhomme is like Brad Lidge for the Philadelphia Phillies. He was great, and now he is in his own head and is extremely shaky behind center. New Orleans have been tested by the Dolphins, the Falcons, and now they get the week off as they will blow out the Panthers just like the Eagles did in week 1. People need to start recognizing that the Saints defense has gotten a lot better and the create a lot of turnovers. They lead the NFL with 16 INTs and have 6 defensive touchdowns. Saints get back to old form here and take down the Panthers, 40 - 14.
Detroit @ Seattle (-10) - The Seahawks play better at home, the Lions don't play good anywhere. This is a game where Matt Hasselbeck should put up big numbers and everyone gets on the waiver wire to pick up Nate Burleson. I like the Seahawks to win at home over Detroit 30 - 10.
Tennessee (+4.5) @ San Francisco - Vince Young brought back the Titans offense last week, BEAT TEAMS WITH THE RUNNING GAME! VY looked good, not great, in his first start of the season, but you could see this team believing in themselves again with VY behind center. This Tennessee team is beginning to get healthy on defense, and when this defense is healthy they can be very good. Do you remember the effort they put in against Pittsburgh in Week 1? 13-10 loss? I expect to start seeing those type of efforts in the next few games and to start seeing the Titan players loosen up a bit and go on a winning streak. It starts with the 2nd win in a row when they play in San Francisco on Sunday, and the 49ers really don't know what is coming. 2 weeks ago they thought this would be an easy win on paper, not they know that this team is on its way back to last year's form, and that is scary news for 49ers fans. I really like the 49ers and love the way they play defense, but they gave it all they got last week against Peyton Manning, and this week will be a slip up. Tennessee over San Francisco 20 - 17.
San Diego (+5) @ New York Giants - The Giants have lost 3 in a row, the Chargers can survive this loss as Denver will start losing games left and right due to their tough remaining schedule. San Diego will keep this game close due to Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, but the Giants are going to get back to their physical game plan and that is running the ball left and right with Brandon Jacobs. With their offensive line, its unbelievable that the Giants got away from running the ball. The Giants will win at home this week, but if they don't run the ball 30 times they could be in trouble. They way you beat the Chargers is by running the ball and executing on 3rd downs, and keeping the Chargers offense off of the field. New York Giants over the San Diego Chargers 27 - 24.
Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3) - The Cowboys looked good against the lowly Seahawks last week, but the Eagles looked better (WITHOUT WESTBROOK) against the New York Football Giants. Tony Romo is a good quarterback and can make plays that many other quarterbacks cannot due to his durability and athleticism. However, if you look at his split stats over his 6 year career, Tony plays good against bad teams and bad against good teams. And this is a classic case; Tony has a career 73.2 QB rating against the Eagles, he has thrown 8 interceptions to 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked 10 times and fumbled 3 times in 6 games against Philly. Donovan McNabb on the other hand; has a career 82 QB rating to go along with 25 TD passes to 11 INTs. I will take the Eagles in this one, with Westbrook back, 31 - 24.
**Pittsburgh (-3) @ Denver - Denver missed their alarm clock last week because they never showed up in Baltimore. Luckily they are home this week, unfortunately its against the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off a bye. This does not bode well for Denver. Josh McDaniels has not had to prepare a game coming off a loss until this week, and the Steelers had an extra week to prepare and get healthy for the Broncos. I think the Steelers will use Mendenhall and Parker to try to run the ball early, which will allow them to open up their offense later in the game. I will take Big Ben over almost any other quarterback in the NFL when it is a big game, this is a big game for Pittsburgh and I think Ben will outperform Mr. Orton. Pittsburgh will enjoy a nice flight home, Pitt over Denver 17 - 6.