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Monday, November 30, 2009

Week 12 Recap

Current Record:
ATS: 95 - 78 - 2 (Week 12: 10-4-1)
SU: 115 - 60 (Week 12: 14-1)

Have the Saints over the Patriots tonight in the game of the week.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thanksgiving Day Games - Week 12

Green Bay Packers (-12) @ Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford gave the city of Detroit a glimmer of hope last week with his heroic win against the Cleveland Browns. Stafford shoved away the training staff and finished his great game with a touchdown pass with no time left on the scoreboard to give the Lions their second win of the season. Stafford threw for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns, and clearly showed that his wants to make the Lions a better team in years to come. With that being said, Stafford is hurt, Calvin Johnson is hurt, they are both expected to start, but this is not a great matchup to be in after that type of effort last week against Cleveland. Green Bay's offensive line is getting healthy and you can tell by the fact that Aaron Rodgers was only sacked twice last week by San Francisco's formidable defense, and by the fact that Ryan Grant had 21 carries for 129 yards. With a healthy offensive line, and Ryan Grant getting good chunks of yards each carry, the Packers playbook becomes wide open for Aaron Rodgers, and which will utilize his ability to use the play-action pass to take shots down the field. The Packers have a stingy pass defense, even with the departure of Al Harris to the IR, and with the amount of points they are capable of putting on the board this game will be over at halftime. Give the points, Packers over the Lions 31 - 14.

Dallas Cowboys (-14) over Oakland Raiders - Prediction: 27 - 9

Denver Broncos (+6.5) over New York Giants - Prediction: 17-6

Picks for the rest of Week 12:
-Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Houston Texans - Prediction: 31 - 27

-Cincinnati Bengals (-14) over Cleveland Browns - Prediction: 34 - 17

-***Philadelphia Eagles (-9) over Washington Redskins - Prediction 20 - 6

-**Buffalo Bills (+3.5) over Miami Dolphins - Prediction 20 - 16

-*****Seattle Seahawks (-3) over St. Louis Rams - Prediction 27 - 10

-Atlanta Falcons over Tampa Bay Buccannears (+13) - Prediction 31 - 20

-**Carolina Panthers (+3) over New York Jets - Prediction 24 - 17

-San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars - Prediction 20 - 13

-San Diego Chargers (-14) over Kansas City Chiefs - Prediction 38 - 10

-Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears (+11) - Prediction 27 - 20

-Tennessee Titans (-3) over Arizona Cardinals - Prediction 24 - 17

-Baltimore Ravens (-0.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers - Prediction 17 - 14

-New Orleans Saints (-3) over New England Patriots - Prediction 34 - 30

Power Rankings

Entering Week 12 in the NFL here are my Power Rankings:

1. Indianapolis Colts (10-0)
2. New Orleans Saints (10-0)
3. Minnesota Vikings (9-1)
4. New England Patriots (7-3)
5. San Diego Chargers (7-3)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)
7. Arizona Cardinals (7-3)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
11. Green Bay Packers (6-4)
12. New York Giants (6-4)
13. Denver Broncos (6-4)
14. Houston Texans (5-5)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
16. Atlanta Falcons (5-5)
17. Miami Dolphins (5-5)
18. Baltimore Ravens (4-6)
19. San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
--------will not make playoff's------
20. Carolina Panthers (4-6)
21. Tennessee Titans (4-6)
22. Chicago Bears (4-6)
23. New York Jets (4-6)
24. Washington Redskins (3-7)
25. Kansas City Chiefs (3-7)
26. Seattle Seahawks (3-7)
27. Buffalo Bills (3-7)
28. Oakland Raiders (3-7)
29. Detroit Lions (2-8)
30. St. Louis Rams (1-9)
31. Tampa Bay Buccanears (1-9)
32. Cleveland Browns (1-9)

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Week 11 Selections

Current Record:
ATS: 77-66-1 ( Week 11: 0-1)
SU: 90-54

**Big Plays
***Picks are in red

Cleveland @ Detroit -3.5 - Boring game that no one will even watch. Edge goes to the home team here, as Matthew Stafford's quarterback play will be better than that of Brady Quinn's. Calvin Johnson is due for a big game as he has been quiet this season due to inexperience at the quarterback position and injuries. Lions over the Browns 20 - 13.

Buffalo @ *****Jacksonville -8.5 - Easiest pick of the season. Buffalo fired their coach midweek, and their interim head coach has never been a head coach in any level of football. Maurice Jones-Drew has singlehandedly carried this Jaguars team into the playoff hunt. Jaguars over the Bills 30 - 10.

Pittsburgh -10 @ Kansas City - Pittsburgh will be out for blood this week. And they will get it. Big Ben is poised for a big game, and the Steelers need to get back to hardnosed running the ball up the gut football. This game should be over by halftime. Steelers over the Chiefs 27 - 6.

Indianapolis -1 @ Baltimore - Everyone likes the Ravens chances in this matchup because of how emotional the win against New England was last week. Let's not forget that Peyton Manning is the most prepared quarterback in the NFL and this week his preparation will be on full display. I like the quarterback matchup in this game as Manning takes on the up and coming, Joe Flacco. Flacco has been up and down this season, after a stellar rookie campaign, and Manning has been sensational. Manning will win this game and further solidify his hold on the MVP award this season. Baltimore's defense will keep it close, but I suspect the Colts defense will rise up in the 4th quarter and get the key stops. Colts over the Ravens 31 - 24.

Atlanta +6.5 @ New York Giants - The Giants are with a banged up secondary, questionably injured quarterback, and now are without MLB Antonio Pierce. The Giants are coming off a bye week, while the Falcons are coming off a tough loss to Carolina last week. Everything points to a Giants win here, but I think their is trouble within the game planning of the Giants, and it will haunt them this week. Falcons will step it up to get a must needed win, and Matt Ryan will have a very good performance against the Giants secondary. Falcons over the Giants 24 - 21.

San Francisco +6.5 @ Green Bay - The Packers defense showed up last week in a huge win against the Cowboys, the 49ers defense shows up every week. If the 49ers win this game it is because the score stays below 20 points on both sides, but I do not see that happening. Green Bay has too much, and they will put up the points to get the win. Green Bay over San Francisco 27 - 24.

Seattle @ Minnesota -10.5 - Minnesota's defensive line > Seattle's offensive line. End of story. Vikings should take care of business at home this week. Vikings over the Seahawks 34 - 20.

**Washington +10.5 @ Dallas - Tony Romo has been too inconsistent throughout his short career in the NFL to think the Cowboys will explode this week against the Redskins. Washington's defense will keep it close. Dallas over Washington 20 - 13.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +11.5 - New Orleans has struggled to put away games the past few weeks and I think that continues this week against the Bucs that are taking each game as serious as a Super Bowl. The Bucs want to improve each week, and since the birth of the Josh Freeman era, they have played much better. New Orleans gets the win in Tampa Bay 38 - 30.

*****Arizona -9 @ St. Louis - I love Arizona in this matchup. They can stop the run, and the only way the Rams play well on offense is when Steven Jackson is running successfully. Not going to happen this week. Kurt Warner will throw for big yards all day. Beanie Wells is a sleeper in this game***. Arizona over St. Louis 27 - 10.

New York Jets @ New England -10.5 - Tom Brady coming off a loss is not someone I would want to play against. The Patriots game plan will be perfect this week, and the Jets may see more tears from head coach Rex Ryan after the game. Patriots over the Jets 30 - 14.

Cincinnati -9.5 @ Oakland - No let down here. Carson Palmer has been very consistent all season, and the Bengals defense has played exceptional as well. Cincinnati over Oakland 24 - 6.

San Diego (off) @ Denver - If Simms does get the start this week, don't even think about taking the Broncos. Phillip Rivers has been terrific over the past 5 weeks, and I expect him to continue his great play this week against a Broncos defense that got torched by the Redskins last week. San Diego over Denver 27 - 13.

***Philadelphia -3 @ Chicago - Chicago doesn't have enough offense to keep up with Philly's. Donovan McNabb threw for 450 yards last week in what should have been a win against the Chargers, but red-zone struggles continue to haunt the Eagles offense and they were unable to get the win. As long as the Eagles aren't exchanging touchdowns for field goals again this week, I expect them to handle the Bears fairly easy. Eagles over the Bears 34 - 17.

Tennessee @ ***Houston -4.5 - I see a possible shootout here, Matt Schaub is fully capable for the Texans while Chris Johnson has his eyes on the end zone every time he gets the ball for the Titans. I don't know if the Titans can keep up with the Texans offense if Chris Johnson doesn't bust loose for any big gains. I like Houston here, the home team coming off a bye week. Sorry Vince Young, I really wanted you to go on a long streak, but this seems like a favorable matchup for the home team. Houston over Tennessee 35 - 24.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

In Week 11's Thursday night matchup, the NFL has scheduled the Dolphins against the Panthers. Prior to the season this game appeared to be quite the matchup on paper. With Miami's Wildcat offense featuring Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and their spirited defense led by wild-man Joey Porter, the Dolphins looked to be a scary team to play all season. The home team, coming off their worst loss in franchise history (you know the one where Delhomme through 5 interceptions in the NFC Divisional game against Arizona), the Panthers still had a lot going for them on paper as well. Steve Smith is a sensational receiver that many thought would have a huge 2009 season. Well, the Panthers started off putrid, the Dolphins started off losing to better teams. Now, entering Week 11, this game is completely different than what we had expected. The Panthers are hot, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, as Jake Delhomme has not thrown an interception in 3 games and their running game has caught fire thanks to the emergence of a some-what healthy Jonathan Stewart.
The Dolphins lost Chad Pennington early in the season and put in Chad Henne who started out nicely against the Jets, however, Henne has been fortunate in his performances due in large part to Ronnie Brown running the ball. Well Brown is done for the season with a Lisfranc fracture and Ricky Williams will be the go to guy. Williams has looked great so far this season, but Brown and Williams countered each other perfectly and now the Dolphins do not have that. I expect Pat White to get more snaps in the Wildcat formation this week in order to keep the game plan similar for this offense. But with the way the Panthers have been running the ball, the way Delhomme has showed consistency over the past 3 games, and with a defense that has been more aggressive and made more plays over the past 3 games, how can I not take the Panthers? The Panthers are the better team, because the Dolphins no longer have their play maker. Ronnie Brown's absence will significantly hurt this Miami offense, but it does allow Miami to see more of Pat White and to show the Dolphin's faithful what a bright future this kid has in the Wildcat formation. All in all, the Panthers win this game for 3 reasons: 1- Their running game is too explosive to shutdown all game. 2- Jake Delhomme's arm has been consistent and I expect the play action pass to work nicely this week against the Dolphins young secondary. And 3- This defense plays much better when they are in Carolina (#1 home pass defense in the NFL, 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games).

Interesting stats to know for this game:
-In Jake Delhomme's 92 career games, he plays at an 89 QB Rating during the final 8 weeks of the regular season compared to a career 81 QB Rating during the first 8 weeks.
-Delhomme has 1 career start against Miami, and he had a 97 QB Rating throwing for 285 yards and 3 TDs.
-Miami Dolphins are 7-15 in their last 22 games straight up.

CAROLINA over MIAMI 24 - 10.
Current Record:
ATS: 77-66-1 ( Week 10: 8-7)
SU: 90-54

**Big Plays
***Picks are in red

Miami @ ***Carolina -3
Cleveland @ Detroit -3.5
Buffalo @ *****Jacksonville -8.5
Pittsburgh -10 @ Kansas City
Indianapolis -1 @ Baltimore
Atlanta +6.5 @ New York Giants
San Francisco +6.5 @ Green Bay
Seattle @ Minnesota -10.5
**Washington +10.5 @ Dallas
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +11.5
*****Arizona -9 @ St. Louis
New York Jets @ New England -10.5
Cincinnati -9.5 @ Oakland
San Diego (off) @ Denver
***Philadelphia -3 @ Chicago
Tennessee @ ***Houston -4.5

Power Rankings

Here are my power rankings entering Week 11 in the NFL:

1. Indianapolis Colts (9-0) - Huge game against the Ravens this week, do they still have anything left in the tank after the emotional win Sunday night?

2. New Orleans Saints (9-0) - Not exactly the win I expected to see against the Rams last Sunday, however, any win in the NFL is a good win. I think they play better this week against Tampa Bay.

3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1) - Brett Farve has 17 TD passes and only 3 interceptions...Wow.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) - I am still surprised by how well the Bengals have played all season, their only let down was against the high-flying offense of the Texans. The Bengals defense should thrive against the Raiders this week.

5. New England Patriots (6-3) - What a performance out of Brady on Sunday night, that game was an instant classic. This is a very good offense, that has a defense that is getting better each week. But, Coach Belichick clearly does not trust the defense.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) - The Steelers never got it going on offense against the Bengals. In order for Pittsburgh to make a deep playoff run this year, they have to commit their offense to the running game.

7. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) - I believe in this team. The defense turns it on in the big games, but primarily they just rely on Kurt Warner's arm. And the arm is working just fine.

8. San Diego Chargers (6-3) - Big game against a desperate Broncos team. Kyle Orton's health is the key in that matchup.

9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) - Major let down against the Packers. Offensively they need to run the ball more consistently and stop putting everything in Tony Romo's hands.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) - The Eagles are the most feared team in the NFC come playoff time, but, with redzone efficiency problems, the playoffs are not guaranteed for this Eagles team that still plays the Bears, Giants, Cowboys, Broncos, and 49ers.

11. New York Giants (5-4) - The Giants will have a tough game this week against the Falcons, but I think they get their stuff back on the right path.

12. Houston Texans (5-4) - This Texans team showed me a lot in the loss to Indianapolis. With a bye week to prepare for Monday nights matchup against Tennessee, I expect Matt Schaub to light up the Titans secondary.

13. Denver Broncos (6-3) - A major injury concern with Kyle Orton's ankle, cost them the game in Washington last week, and I believe it will cost them the game this week against San Diego even if Orton is able to go.

14. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) - An unimpressive win on Monday night, not exactly the type of game you want to have the week before you play the best team in football this week.

15. Carolina Panthers (4-5) - With a difficult schedule from here on out I find it tough for the Panthers to win more than 9 games, but with Delhomme passing the ball well the past three games, this offense is no longer one dimensional.

16. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) - The Falcons need Matt Ryan to step up during the time Michael Turner will have to sit out due to his injury.

17. Green Bay Packers (5-4) - The win against Dallas was huge for Rodgers, and huge for the organization. Another test this week against the 49ers.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) - I think the Jaguars are a stone-cold-lead-pipe-LOCK to win big this week at home against Buffalo.

19. San Francisco 49ers (4-5) - The 49ers have the defense to keep them in games, but their offense needs to be able to pass the ball effectively in order to give them a chance to win games.

20. Chicago Bears (4-5) - Eagles come to town this week, that does not bode well for Bear fans.

21. Miami Dolphins (4-5) - Ronnie Brown is done for the year, and so are the Dolphins.

22. Tennessee Titans (3-6) - Can they make it four in a row against Houston this week? I don't think so, but I believe it will be very close.

23. New York Jets (4-5) - Rex Ryan cried during a team meeting this week, the Jets won't be in the post season this year.

24. Washington Redskins (3-6) - Betts and Campbell played well last week against Denver, and look for them to fair decently against the Cowboys defense this week.

25. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) - No running game and a broken down offensive line is not a recipe for success in the NFL.

26. Buffalo Bills (3-6) - Head coach was fired this week, big time loss in Jacksonville on Sunday is my prediction.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) - What a great effort against Miami, came down to the wire.

28. St. Louis Rams (1-8) - Would have been insane if the Rams were the team that knocked off the Saints, they almost did!

29. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) - They lost Larry Johnson for the season and now Dwayne Bowe for 4 weeks...excellent.

30. Detroit Lions (1-8) - I am prediction a good week out of Stafford this week.

31. Oakland Raiders (2-7) - No comment.

32. Cleveland Browns (1-8) - No comment.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

*Week 10 Selections

Current Record:

ATS: 72 - 58 - 1 (Week 1- 1-0)
SU: 83 - 46

***Top Plays for the Weekend

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7) - The Jaguars put no pressure on the quarterback (8 sacks in 8 games), they get beat by the run (120 yards per game), and they get beat by the pass (243 yards per game). The Jets had an extra week to prepare for this game, Mark Sanchez has had two straight games of a QB Rating over 100, and the Jets running game is on fire (761 rushing yards the past 3 games). With the extra week to prepare for the Jaguars, I expect Rex Ryan's defense to come out and shut down the Jaguars offense. Mark Sanchez won't need to do much as the Jets will be running the ball early and often. New York Jets get back over .500 as they take down the Jaguars 27 - 14.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins -
The Redskins are without Clinton Portis, and let's not forget Chris Cooley, so I am already in trouble trying to find ways they will put points on the board. The Broncos need to get back to running the football with Moreno and Buckhalter, and using their ground game to open up the passing attack with Kyle Orton. Orton was playing above his potential the first 6 games of the season, but he is still a good quarterback that can win games for this Denver football team. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in games, but after Michael Turner burned them on the ground for over 160 yards, I really like the Broncos in this matchup. Favored on the road by 3.5 points, Vegas is telling you that they will win this game. Take the Broncos to win 20 - 10 in this defensive matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
- Steelers nation will be in full affect this weekend as the Bengals come to town. Cincy is coming off a huge win over Baltimore last week where RB Cedric Benson went over 100 yards rushing for the second time this season against the Ravens, the first time that has happened since 1997 (Jerome Bettis PITT). Pittsburgh looked great last weekend, and Big Ben is playing at such a high level this season. So far he is 4th in QB Rating (104),1st in Completion % (70.6), 5th in yards per game (286), and has taken 3 less sacks than last year at this point in the season. Big Ben is the difference maker in this game. I take the better quarterback in this matchup, and the Steelers defense will shut down Benson. If Benson is unsuccessful running the ball, the Bengals offense will sputter. Steelers over the Bengals 27 - 13.

Buffalo Bills @ **Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
- The Titans are rolling right now, while the Bills were lucky to have a bye week last week. That did nothing for them. The Titans are the hot hand and I will continue riding with them until they show me reason not too. Vince Young may not throw for over 100 yards, but I guarantee Chris Johnson runs for well over 100 yards. The Bills are dead last in run defense, giving up 174 yards a game, and I think that number increases this week. Tennessee all over Buffalo 24 - 7.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
- Not much needed to say here. Minnesota coming off a bye week, Detroit's quarterback coming off a 5 INT week, yeah...Vikings win this one 34 - 14.

***New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams
- The Saints are due for a large win, and it just so happens they play the Rams this week. The Rams give up 28 points a game and Drew Brees and company will thrive on that this week. The Saints offense and defense are too much to control for the Rams. New Orleans over St. Louis 45 - 10.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers
- DeAngelo Williams health is crucial in this game. If he is out the Panthers will really struggle on offense, but if he is healthy their offense will have a great opportunity against the Falcons run defense that ranks 24th in the NFL. For the Falcons, Roddy White is questionable, but they need to keep Michael Turner successfully running the ball. If Turner can run the ball for big chunks of yards and keep Williams and Smith off the field, Atlanta will win this game easily. I see the Panthers keeping it close, but a Matt Ryan touchdown pass to Gonzo of Jenkins will put the nail in the coffin. Falcons over the Panthers 30 - 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
****(-10) - Josh Freeman is making his first career road start in the NFL and they never go well. The Dolphins have played hard all season and they still have hopes for the playoffs. The Bucs, well, they are hoping to win more than 1 game this season. The Bucs defense will have a lot in front of them when trying to shut down the running attack of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown (averaging 150 yards per game). The Dolphins will have the home crowd behind them, and Joey Porter will be barking in Freeman's ear all game. This is a no-brainer. Dolphins over the Bucs 30 - 10.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders -
The Raiders do not have an edge because of being on a bye week, I actually see the Chiefs coming into this game with the edge as their offense was clicking in the 4th quarter of last week's game against Jacksonville. Matt Cassel and newly acquired, Chris Chambers connected for 2 scores and Cassel had a very productive 23-29 performance. I like the Chiefs to take down the Raiders 20 - 7.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8)
- The Seahawks will be playing catchup all game as the Cardinals offense is too powerful and has too many weapons to contain. The Cardinals will be able to pass and throw against the Seahawks defense that allows 320+ yards per game. The Cardinals will give up some points in the 4th quarter, as they did against Chicago, but if Kurt Warner protects the ball and if Wells and Hightower can run it successfully in their few carries the Cardinals will dominate Seattle. Arizona over Seattle 38 - 21.

***Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ San Diego Chargers
- Philly needs this game. Flat out, Philly needs this game. Phillip Rivers is a better quarterback right now than Donovan McNabb and usually I give the edge to teams with the better quarterback. But the Chargers defense is suspect. Merriman is not the same player "off the juice", and that is clearly evident in his play this season. Merriman has 4 sacks on the season (4 the past two weeks against Oak and NYG), 0 sacks during the first 7 weeks of the season. He is not the same GAME CHANGING LB that he used to be and that will be a big reason why the Eagles win this shoot out. McNabb has the weapons to exploit the Chargers defense, and now with a healthy Brian Westbrook who clearly should have fresh legs, the Eagles are just an offensive line away from having a Super Bowl caliber team. That being said, the Eagles defense will have to do their best to shut down Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. The Eagles usually struggle against big games TE's (Cooley, Boss, Shockey, Witten) and Gates should have decent numbers this game. I still give the win to the Eagles, the last time they played out west they were spoiled by the Raiders, but this time they are playing at 4:15 (which is 1pm eastern time) so they shouldn't be out of whack at all. The Eagles over the Chargers 34 - 28.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
- Injury Report for the Packers: OUT TE Jermichael Finley (knee), LB Aaron Kampman (concussion), LB Brady Poppinga (quadricep), T Mark Tauscher (knee). This does not bode well for the home team. Romo is hot, and when he isn't getting rushed and taking sacks he is a very good quarterback. I do not see him get pressured too often from a Packers defense (minus Kampman and Poppinga) that only has 13 sacks on the season. It's not that the Cowboys are just that good, it's more that the Packers are struggling that bad right now and Dallas will capitalize on it. I like Dallas by double digits in this game. Dallas over Green Bay 34 - 20.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts
- This is the Hall of Fame game for the NFL. Peyton vs Tom. There is no edge in quarterback's here, and honestly you could argue both this season. For the season Peyton is playing better, but the past 3 weeks Tom is playing better. Their stats are ridiculous: Peyton - 105 QB Rating, 1st in completion %, 2nd in passing yards, 2nd in TD passes, and is sacked less than 1 time per game. Tom - 99 QB Rating, 66 % completion percentage, 296 ypg, 16:5 TD to INT, and sacked only 10 times. These guys are phenomenal. However, the Colts secondary is in shambles. They are without Hayden, Jackson, and Sanders in their secondary. I am sorry Colts fans, but that is too easy for Brady. Quick Fact: New England is 15-2-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis. Enough said. This is the bet of the weekend, New England easily over the Colts 34 - 24.

**Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns
- Brady Quinn is getting the start for the Browns. This will be the lowest rated televised game of the season for the NFL, let alone the worst Monday night game of the season. Baltimore is coming off a bad loss in Cincinnati in Week 9, so they will be firing on all cylinders against Cleveland. This will be a blow out to say the least. Flacco, Ray Rice, MaGahee, Mason, and Ray Lewis should all have big performances. Baltimore over Cleveland 27 - 3.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Week 10 Selections

Chicago @ San Francisco (-3) - The 49ers come into this game riding a 4-game losing streak. Head coach Mike Singletary will not allow a 5th straight loss, that being said I like the 49ers to take it to the Bears tonight. Vernon Davis was running his mouth during the week trash talking the Bears defensive front seven, I thoroughly disagree with his decision making skills. If you think your team is going to dominate a defense, why say things that will only make that defense want to play better? He should have kept his mouth shut this week, and let his play tonight do the talking. Ironically for the 49ers, since the signing of rookie WR Michael Crabtree, the season has gone south (0-4 in Crabtree's first 4 games). This should be Crabtree's first win in the NFL, and he will have a chance to get his first touchdown receptions as well.

For the Bears, the season has replicated that of Jay Cutler's; inconsistent. Cutler is 2nd in the NFL, behind Jake Delhomme, with 12 interceptions thrown this season. Cutler is a very good quarterback, and the Bears are extremely lucky to have him behind center. But, they knew when they signed him that Cutler is high risk / high reward. Unfortunately, Matt Forte and the offensive line have done nothing all season to get a running game going for this Bears offense. Currently, the Bears rank 28th in the NFL only averaging 91 yards on the ground per game. Defensively, since they lost MLB Brian Urlacher, the Bears have dropped off. They are getting beat by the rush (allowing 120 yards per game) and only have 16 sacks on the season. In order to get this thing going again, Cutler has to be smart with the football, but the defense has to start winning the turnover margin each game. Creating turnovers leads to big plays, which turns into easy points.

That being said, I see the 49ers defense creating turnovers tonight at home against the Bears. Cutler takes too many chances with his limited receiving options and it will hurt them tonight. I expect Frank Gore to have a solid performance against a below average run defense, and look for Alex Smith and Vernon Davis to hook up at least 6-8 times in the middle of the field. Davis better bring his A-game after giving the Bears defense more fuel for their fire. My biggest advantage goes to the 49ers tonight, and that is the coaching. Mike Singletary will find a way to get the win tonight, he will not allow a 5-game losing streak. This team believes in their head coach, and they believe in each other. Playing smart football, running it up the gut with Gore, and hitting Davis and Crabtree for 8-12 yard gains will control the TOP and allow the 49ers to win this game tonight.

San Francisco 49ers 20 - Chicago Bears 13.

Other Games (without the previews)
***Top Plays for the Weekend

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-7)

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Buffalo Bills @ **Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)

***New Orleans Saints (-13.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccanears @ Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8)

***Philadelphia Eagles (+1) @ San Diego Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Green Bay Packers

New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts

**Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Week 10 Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

Here are my hot and cold starts for Week 10 in the NFL:


Hot Start:

-Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) - The Seahawks will be in catch up mode from the 2nd quarter on in this matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Additionally, the Cardinals are 3rd against the run, so the Seahawks will turn 1-dimensional with the pass very fast. Hasselbeck and Burleson have had success the past few weeks, and I like them to hook up in this game as well. Hasselbeck should be in the 250+ yards 2 TD 2 INT range this week.

-Josh Freeman (TB) -
I am not on this bandwagon yet, but Freeman put up big numbers against the Packers defense last week, and the Dolphins secondary is not stellar against the pass by any means, yielding 247 yards per game through the air. Freeman could have a 225-235 yard game with a TD and a pick.

-Jay Cutler (CHI) - Thursday night matchup in San Francisco and the Bears will have a lot in front of them in order to get the win. Clearly the Bears are not going to run the ball 25 times a game against anyone this season, so Cutler is a valuable option each week. Add the fact that he and Greg Olsen finally hooked up for a score (actually 3 ) last week shows signs that Cutler will begin targeting him more often. The Bears will be behind in this one, and playing on the road I will imagine Cutler passing the ball 42-47 times. I think a 275+ yard game is likely for Cut, but I do see an INT or 2.

Cold Start:
-Kyle Orton (DEN) - Washington is #1 against the pass and Orton has looked human the past two games. Denver will win this game due to controlling the time of possession and having good field position. Don't expect much from Orton, I see 180 yards and a TD at best.

-David Garrard (JAX) - The Jets are #2 against the pass, they had the bye week to prepare for this game, and they are at home. None of this bodes well for the Jaguars. Garrard will get sacked, fumble, and picked off in this game. Sit him.


Hot Start:
-Willis McGahee (BAL) - The Browns allow 171 yards per game on the ground (31st in the NFL) and the Ravens need to get McGahee going at this time of the year so that Rice can have healthy legs deeper into the season.

-Jamaal Charles (KC) - With the Raiders secondary, the Chiefs have to try to run the ball. However, Charles is terrific catching passes out of the backfield so he presents value running it and catching it. Good week to give him a go if you need a #3 or Flex player.

-Mike Bell (NO) - Bell will get some carries this week as the Saints go against the lowly Rams. Bell will get some goal-line carries to pad his numbers as the Saints will utilize their ground game against St. Louis (who allows 135 yards per game on the ground).

Cold Start:
-Julius Jones (SEA) -
The Cardinals are 3rd against the run and 29th vs the pass. If you were the coach would you run it or pass it? Pass it they will. Sit Jones.


Hot Start:
-Chris Chambers (KC) -
Chambers became the go to guy for Cassel last week in the 4th quarter. Look for this connection to get stronger each week,

-Percy Harvin (MINN) - Potentially the rookie of the year, Harvin presents a great fantasy matchup against the Lions. The Vikings probably won't pass it much as the Lions are not a good defense against the run, but Harvin can run the ball, receive passes, and take back kicks. Start him.

-Nate Burleson (SEA) - He is Hasselbeck's favorite target, and he has a good chance to make something happen against a weak Arizona secondary. Start him and hope he can give you 7 catches, 120 yards and a TD.

Cold Start:
-Eddie Royal (DEN) -
Washington is too strong against the pass, and they get pressure on the quarterback. Sit Royal this week.

-Roddy White (ATL) - Atlanta will focus on running the ball effectively to keep DeAngelo Williams off the field for Carolina. Long drives will take up most of this game, if Matt Ryan is passing, he will be targeting Tony G. more so than Roddy W.

-Santana Moss (WAS) - The Broncos are solid against the pass, but they are 3rd in sacks in the NFL and with a beat up offensive line and not a strong blocking tight end, the Broncos should get a lot of pressure on Campbell.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Power Rankings

Here are my Power Rankings for the NFL heading into Week 10:
1. New Orleans Saints (8-0) - They did it again, coming from behind to beat the Panthers this time. The Saints are digging themselves a hole in the first halves of the past two games, but should be okay this week in St. Louis.

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-0) - They will not remain unbeaten if they cannot run the ball successfully. Peyton throws to Clark and Wayne only, and Addai is not getting it done out of the backfield. Even at 9-0, the Colts have layed out the blueprint, of how to beat them, over the past two weeks.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Coming off a bye week the Vikings are at home against the Lions. Should be an easy win, expect a lot of Peterson in this one.

4. New England Patriots (6-2) - The Patriots didn't light it up against the Dolphins, but they showed that Moss still has it, and Welker is the best possession Wide Receiver in the league.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) - Mendenhall has allowed the Steelers to get back to Steeler football. With a strong running game, their best passing attack in years, and a stout defense, this Pittsburgh team will go deep into the playoffs.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) - The Bengals will lose this week to the Steelers, but they beat Baltimore twice this season and Cedric Benson went over 100 yards rushing in both games. Believe in this team because they will be a wild card team in the AFC.

7. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) - The Eagles should have won the game, but Romo connected with Miles Austin for a 49-yard touchdown in the 4th to win it. The Cowboys only strong win this season is against Philly, but if Romo can remain hot this team is going to continue this winning streak for possibly 3 more weeks.

8. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) - A huge win in Chicago for Arizona. Kurt Warner bounced back from a 5 interception performance a week ago, to a 5 touchdown performance this week. Expect more of this from the old timer.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) - Better game management and this team wins against Dallas. But, the big win against the Giants, and then this tough loss against Dallas, is not the consistency you would like to see out of this Philly team.

10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) - The Falcons still have Carolina, Tampa twice, Buffalo, and the Jets left on their schedule. Big chance to win 10 games.

11. Denver Broncos (6-2) - The Broncos are still a good team, but their quarterback is coming back to Earth and playing at the talent level he really is (about a 75 QB rating type).

12. Houston Texans (5-4) - A much needed bye week, but the Texans are very disappointed they are not taking time off after a win in Indy. Thought they had it, came up just short. This team has a potent offense and a defense that has played terrific the past 5 weeks. Time off should only help.
13. San Diego Chargers (5-3) - The Chargers are coming back quickly, can they continue their hot streak at home against Philly this week? I don't think so.

14. New York Giants (5-4) - A much needed bye week for the G-men after losing 4 straight. Coughlin will have these guys prepared for the falcons in Week 11.

15. Baltimore Ravens (4-4) - The defense and offense will step up and give this team a chance to make the playoffs.

16. New York Jets (4-4) - If Sanchez can be consistent and play clean football this team is going to win some games. Their defense is well rested and Thomas Jones has been running the ball great this season. Unfortunately, 4-4 does not make much of his success.

17. Miami Dolphins (3-5) - Their ground game is tremendous and will keep them in games all season. Their defense plays with heart, and I still think this team can have an 8-8 season.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) - Look at these guys sneaking up the ladder.

19. San Francisco 49ers (3-5) - The 49ers will be okay, Coach Singletary will rally his troops this week as they play his old team, Da' Bears.

20. Green Bay Packers (4-4) - What a bad slip-up game for the Packers. They need their line to protect Rodgers or else they are done for the season.

21. Chicago Bears (4-4) - Slowly slipping down the rankings, at least Cutler tried to make a comeback against the Cardinals.
22. Carolina Panthers (3-5) - The Panthers run game is in full affect...since all they do is run the ball.
23. Tennessee Titans (2-6) - The Titans are 2-0 with VY behind center, I believe this week makes it 3-0.

24. Seattle Seahawks (3-5) - The Seahawks played poorly against the Lions, trailing 17-0 at one point, but Hasselbeck rallied them and got a 12 point win for the home team.

25. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Even though they were on a bye last week, I still feel like they lost.

26. Washington Redskins (2-6) - No Portis for a few weeks because of a concussion...Season just got "worser".

27. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) - Chris Chambers was a great pickup for Matt Cassel. Look for these guys to develop a chemistry over the next few games.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) - What an impressive performance by the rookie, Josh Freeman, in his first career start. Congratulations to new head coach Raheem Morris on his first career win as well.
29. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - S. Jackson is the only reason this team has any talent on the roster.
30. Detroits Lions (1-7) - Stafford throwing 5 INTs is not good.

31. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - The Raiders are funny to watch. I love ESPN's "Not Top 10" haha.

32. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - The Browns are in shambles. 1-15.

This Week

Tuesday: Power Rankings

Wednesday: Start 'Em / Sit 'Em
League Notes (comments)

Thursday: Game Preview - Chicago @ San Francisco
Week 10 Picks ATS (without the previews)

Friday/Saturday: Game Previews for Week 10 in the NFL
Bets of the weekend

Current Record:
ATS: 71 - 58 - 1 (Week 9: 7-6)
SU: 82 - 46

Monday, November 9, 2009

Week 9 Aftermath

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of Week 9 in the NFL:


-Good for you Tampa Bay, Josh Freeman played great and got the first win in front of the home crowd. Good for you.

-The Dallas Cowboys; congratulations winning in Philadelphia was huge for you guys. Tony Romo and Miles Austin only hooked up one time in this game, but it was the 49 yard game winning touchdown catch by Austin that sealed it for the Cowboys in Philly.

-The Saints and The Colts; both games were in jeopardy, and you both came out victoriously.

-Cincinnati Bengals- Okay, you guys are for real...end of story.

-Arizona Cardinals- Gigantic win over the Bears, but can you guys start being consistent so I can label you as a team to beat, not a team that competes 2 out of every 3 weeks.

-San Diego- Phillip Rivers is a beast, this defense is beginning to look more formidable and the chemistry is growing each week. Imagine if Merriman was back on the juice...

-Lastly, the Steelers. Coming off the bye week, you did not disappoint in Denver. Mendenhall closed out the game nicely...see ya Willie P.


-San Francisco 49ers - 34 points to the Titans? At home? Come on Singletary.

-The Eagles - Andy Reid, the game management was pathetic, PA-THET-IC!

-HOUSTON- I had you! Kris Brown, oh so reliable Kris Brown!!!

-Baltimore- I expected much better out of you. Benson gets another 100 yard rushing game, first time you guys have allowed the same back to rush for 100+ yards in the same season since 1997 (Jerome Bettis).


-Green Bay - That was ugly. Protect your quarterback and you guys win that game. Still...Ugly.

-Mike Smith - You are the head coach of a National Football League team and you wanted to fight DeAngelo Hall??? Conduct unbecoming of a NFL head coach...Do you have some CABLE in you?

-Denver - You guys are sinking like the titanic. Baltimore first, now Pittsburgh. Ouch.

-Chicago - The Bears have given up 30+ points in the first half of a game two times this season, compared to a total of 5 dating all the way back to 1920. That's worse than ugly.

-Detroit - How do you jump offsides? What are you possibly thinking?

Pittsburgh @ Denver

Tonight's matchup:

**Pittsburgh (-3) @ Denver - Denver missed their alarm clock last week because they never showed up in Baltimore. Luckily they are home this week, unfortunately its against the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off a bye. This does not bode well for Denver. Josh McDaniels has not had to prepare a game coming off a loss until this week, and the Steelers had an extra week to prepare and get healthy for the Broncos. I think the Steelers will use Mendenhall and Parker to try to run the ball early, which will allow them to open up their offense later in the game. I will take Big Ben over almost any other quarterback in the NFL when it is a big game, this is a big game for Pittsburgh and I think Ben will outperform Mr. Orton. Pittsburgh will enjoy a nice flight home, Pitt over Denver 17 - 6.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Week 9 Picks

Here are my Picks without the previews, the previews will be up tomorrow.

Picks are in RED

**means TOP PLAYS--

Kansas City (+7) @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville has the 27th ranked home passing defense (allowing 252 yards per game) and I expect the Chiefs to throw, throw, and throw. Matt Cassel will have success through the air, while Maurice Jones-Drew should have success on the ground (I am hoping to see him get 18-24 carries) against the Chiefs defense that ranks 26th against the run. This will be a close game because Garrard will not be throwing as much due to last week. Jaguars get the win at home 20 -17.

**Baltimore (-3) @ Cincinnati - The Ravens look like they are back after last weeks performance at home against the Broncos. The Ravens defense only allowed 200 yard of offense and the offense had over 100 yards rushing and Flacco had a 109 QB rating. The Bengals are a very solid football team, but I do not like them coming off a bye week when they have the Ravens this week and the Steelers next week. They went into the bye week off a huge 35 point win over the Bears, and now they have to play the Ravens and Steelers that won't allow them to score 45 points combined over the next two weeks. The Ravens will shut down Cedric Benson, and that will cause problems for Carson Palmer. The reason Palmer has been so successful this season is due to the success of Benson. Teams have to respect the run game which allows Palmer and extra second or two to drop back, and also allows him to utilize the play-action pass very well. The Ravens will bring the kitchen sink this week on defense, and I really like the way Joe Flacco has been playing this season. Flacco to Rice is a great fall back for this offense. Ravens over the Bengals in Cincinnati 24 - 13.


**Houston (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Game of the week in my eyes. The Texans know that this is the most important game in the history of their franchise. If the Texans win, they can say that they can play with the big boys and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If they lose, they will have a hard time looking in the mirror and believing in themselves the rest of the season. Things got very interesting for this game when Indy announced CB Marlin Jackson is done for the season and S Bob Sanders is out as well. Also, Indy's other veteran CB Kelvin Hayden has been ruled out for this game. So you are telling me that Matt Schaub will be passing against 2nd teamers? Wow this game just got very interesting. Houston has been playing good defense ever since the second half of their game against Arizona. Houston has a legit shot at winning this game, and their team knows it. I think Houston will come out of the gates hard and really put some pressure on Manning. Houston will be leading this game at halftime, and I am picking them to come out on top at the end as well. Manning will keep it close, because of who he is, but because the Colts are 1-dimensional they will not win this game. Houston will pass, pass, and pass, and when they don't pass they have Moats and Slaton, two explosive style runners, coming out of the backfield. Houston will be all over Indy, 31 - 24.

Washington (+10) @ Atlanta - I like Washington in this matchup, coming off a bye, and the Falcons defense being who they are. But, the Falcons play so much better at home, and they need this win more than the Redskins. The Skins are done and they know it. They have a head coach on the side line who knows he won't be there in 2010. Matt Ryan is not a great start this weekend in fantasy football, but I think he will still rack up the yards allowing Michael Turner to cash them in for points. Atlanta over the Redskins 24 - 17.

Green Bay (-10) @ Tampa Bay - Aaron Rodgers is playing too well to have a slip up in Tampa Bay. Tampa is coming off a bye week so their first few drives should look better than they have so far this season. That being said, Josh Freeman, a rookie quarterback going against the 9th ranked passing defense in the NFL, will struggle. The Packers won't and I expect Ryan Grant to run all over the Bucs defense. Packers over the Bucs 35 - 16.

Arizona (+3) @ Chicago - The Bears won't have enough offense to keep up with the Cardinals passing game. Kurt Warner will not have two straight horrible games, so look for him to play pretty well against a defense that allows 21 points per game. The Cardinals looked shaky last week because of Carolina's run game, well, that is not the case this week. The Bears do not utilize their ground game enough to make it effective, instead they use Jay Cutler's arm to keep them in games. With the limited options they have on offense the Bears have played well through the first half of the season. I see them losing to the Cards at home on Sunday, due in part to the horrible loss they suffered to Carolina last week. The Cards bounce back in Chicago 30 - 20.

Miami @**New England (-11.5) - This is an easy pick for me. The Patriots are coming off a bye week, and like the Eagles after a bye, the Patriots always win. The preparation they have put into this game will be displayed on Sunday when they shut down the Wildcat and blow out the Dolphins. Miami played very poorly on offense against the Jets last week, but because of Ted Ginn Jr. they were able to capitalize on special teams. Won't happen here. Tom Brady exploits the Dolphins defense. New England over Miami 38 - 14.
Carolina @ New Orleans (-13) - New Orleans has a bad history against John Fox and the Carolina Panthers, but the Panthers aren't the same team we are used to seeing. They win games by running the ball, running the ball only. Jake Delhomme is like Brad Lidge for the Philadelphia Phillies. He was great, and now he is in his own head and is extremely shaky behind center. New Orleans have been tested by the Dolphins, the Falcons, and now they get the week off as they will blow out the Panthers just like the Eagles did in week 1. People need to start recognizing that the Saints defense has gotten a lot better and the create a lot of turnovers. They lead the NFL with 16 INTs and have 6 defensive touchdowns. Saints get back to old form here and take down the Panthers, 40 - 14.

Detroit @ Seattle (-10) - The Seahawks play better at home, the Lions don't play good anywhere. This is a game where Matt Hasselbeck should put up big numbers and everyone gets on the waiver wire to pick up Nate Burleson. I like the Seahawks to win at home over Detroit 30 - 10.

Tennessee (+4.5) @ San Francisco - Vince Young brought back the Titans offense last week, BEAT TEAMS WITH THE RUNNING GAME! VY looked good, not great, in his first start of the season, but you could see this team believing in themselves again with VY behind center. This Tennessee team is beginning to get healthy on defense, and when this defense is healthy they can be very good. Do you remember the effort they put in against Pittsburgh in Week 1? 13-10 loss? I expect to start seeing those type of efforts in the next few games and to start seeing the Titan players loosen up a bit and go on a winning streak. It starts with the 2nd win in a row when they play in San Francisco on Sunday, and the 49ers really don't know what is coming. 2 weeks ago they thought this would be an easy win on paper, not they know that this team is on its way back to last year's form, and that is scary news for 49ers fans. I really like the 49ers and love the way they play defense, but they gave it all they got last week against Peyton Manning, and this week will be a slip up. Tennessee over San Francisco 20 - 17.

San Diego (+5) @ New York Giants - The Giants have lost 3 in a row, the Chargers can survive this loss as Denver will start losing games left and right due to their tough remaining schedule. San Diego will keep this game close due to Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, but the Giants are going to get back to their physical game plan and that is running the ball left and right with Brandon Jacobs. With their offensive line, its unbelievable that the Giants got away from running the ball. The Giants will win at home this week, but if they don't run the ball 30 times they could be in trouble. They way you beat the Chargers is by running the ball and executing on 3rd downs, and keeping the Chargers offense off of the field. New York Giants over the San Diego Chargers 27 - 24.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3) - The Cowboys looked good against the lowly Seahawks last week, but the Eagles looked better (WITHOUT WESTBROOK) against the New York Football Giants. Tony Romo is a good quarterback and can make plays that many other quarterbacks cannot due to his durability and athleticism. However, if you look at his split stats over his 6 year career, Tony plays good against bad teams and bad against good teams. And this is a classic case; Tony has a career 73.2 QB rating against the Eagles, he has thrown 8 interceptions to 7 touchdowns, and has been sacked 10 times and fumbled 3 times in 6 games against Philly. Donovan McNabb on the other hand; has a career 82 QB rating to go along with 25 TD passes to 11 INTs. I will take the Eagles in this one, with Westbrook back, 31 - 24.

**Pittsburgh (-3) @ Denver - Denver missed their alarm clock last week because they never showed up in Baltimore. Luckily they are home this week, unfortunately its against the Pittsburgh Steelers, coming off a bye. This does not bode well for Denver. Josh McDaniels has not had to prepare a game coming off a loss until this week, and the Steelers had an extra week to prepare and get healthy for the Broncos. I think the Steelers will use Mendenhall and Parker to try to run the ball early, which will allow them to open up their offense later in the game. I will take Big Ben over almost any other quarterback in the NFL when it is a big game, this is a big game for Pittsburgh and I think Ben will outperform Mr. Orton. Pittsburgh will enjoy a nice flight home, Pitt over Denver 17 - 6.

Week 9 Start 'E, / Sit 'Em

Here are my selections for who to start and sit this week in the NFL:


Hot Starts-

1. Joe
Flacco (BAL) - The Bengals rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, and rank 31st when playing at home. This won't be high scoring because of both defenses, but I see Flacco racking up yards all game.
2. Jason Campbell (WAS) - Campbell is a solid fill-in QB this week if you are in a deep league. Campbell is coming off a bye week so his preparation and game planning should mean he'll at least have a good first half. But, Campbell had a decent day against the Eagles two Sundays ago when he threw for 284 yards and 2 TDs.

Cold Starts-
1. Matt Ryan (ATL)
- Ryan should put up decent yards against Washington, but I think Atlanta's scoring will come on the ground. Atlanta plays well at home and and Ryan will put scoring drives together, but I think Michael Turner will punch them in for 6 on the ground. The Skins defense is tough, ranking 2nd against the pass and averages 2.5 sacks per game.


Hot Starts-
1. Jamaal Charles (KC) -
The Jaguars give up big plays on the ground (as evidence from last week against Tennessee) and Jamaal Charles has the tools to bust open for long yard runs. The Chiefs have a chance to put it to the Jaguars this week and they should be very prepared as they had an extra week to get ready for Jacksonville. I expect a solid day out of Charles.

2. Ryan Grant (GB) - This will be Grants coming out party of the season. The Bucs are horrible defensively and Grant will have plenty of chances to break away from defenders and turn 10 yard runs into 25 yards runs. Grant will go over 100 and get a score this weekend.

Cold Starts-
1. Knowshon Moreno (DEN) -
If Pittsburgh can hold Adrian Peterson to 69 yards on 18 carries (1 carry went for 19 yards so that is really 17 carries for 50 yards) do you really think Moreno will cut them up for anything more than that? I don't either. Sit him if you have anyone else.


Hot Starts-

1. Kevin Walter (HOU) -
With the loss of TE Owen Daniels the Texans need Walter to step up. I believe he will as Andre Johnson will draw double teams and pull safeties to his part of the field. Walter's targets should dramatically increase from here on out.

2. Nate Burleson (SEA) - Burleson was targeted 12 times last week bye Hasselbeck, and playing a Detroit Lions secondary that allows 270 yards through the air when they play on the road...Yeah, I will say Burleson is a hot start.

Cold Start-

1. Roddy White (ATL) -
This is a big reach as White has been on fire for a few weeks, but the Redskins secondary is very good against the pass and they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Take away a 57 yard touchdown pass from McNabb to Jackson last week and McNabb's numbers were (14-24 99 yards). Sit him this week if you have any other options as I see White accumulating 5 catches for 60 yards.
What's to come today:

Start 'Em / Sit 'EM Week 9

All Week 9 games ATS without previews.

Previews for each game will be posted Friday.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Power Rankings

Here are my Power Rankings for the NFL after Week 8:

1. New Orleans Saints (7-0) - Outscoring their opponents 273-154, the Saints offense can run and pass very effectively which causes mayhem for their opponents.

2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) - Not a great win over San Fran as they were shut down in the redzone, and a huge test this week against a hot Houston Texan team.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Great road win in Green Bay to go off on a bye week. This team has all of the tools to go deep into the playoffs.
4. New England Patriots (5-2) - The Patriots are coming off a bye week, I am guaranteeing a win bye double digits as head coach Bill Belichick is tremendous coming off bye weeks.

5. Denver Broncos (6-1) - The undefeated pressure is off of their shoulders, but they got beat bad in Baltimore and things don't get any easier playing Pittsburgh this week.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) - The Bengals are coming off a bye and play Baltimore this week. The Bengals can run and pass, but can their defense hold down Flacco and Rice two times in a season? I see a low scoring Bengals loss this weekend.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - I am predicting a big win in Denver this weekend, Big Ben and company are poised to make their current 4 game winning streak last a lot longer.

8. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) - They lose to Oakland, get an unimpressive win in Washington D.C., and then embarrass the Giants in Philly...I still do not know how good this team is, but with a healthy Westbrook this week against Dallas, we may see a lot of mismatches for Philly's RB's and WR's.

9. Dallas Cowboys (5-2) - This is Tony Romo to a "T". Solid in September, October, and November, and then crashes in December.

10. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) - This team is on the move, I love this defense for their intensity and determination they showed and exhibited against Denver last week.

11. New York Giants (5-3) - Regroup and get back to running the ball.

12. Houston Texans (5-3) - I predicted the Texans to win the division with an 11-5 record, that may not win the division but I do see them knocking off the undefeated Colts on Sunday.

13. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) - Games like that happen, 5 interceptions, but how do they bounce back against the Bears this week, who are coming off a feel-good win last week against Cleveland.

14. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) - This is still a good football team, even though they lost 2 straight they still have a good thing going in Atlanta.

15. San Diego Chargers (4-3) - I am not sold on my preseason Super Bowl pick, but their defense looked much more intense last week.
16. New York Jets (4-4) - Mark Sanchez played well last week in the loss to Miami, had the Jets covered the kickoff's it would have been a blow out win for New York.
17. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - Yes the Dolphins have beat the Jets twice, but I still feel that the Jets are a better team across the board, plus the Dolphins are going to get beat up this weekend in New England.

18. Green Bay Packers (4-3) - They played well against the Vikings, but the offensive line is going to kill Aaron Rodgers before the end of the season. The cannot block anything.

19. Chicago Bears (4-3) - Very inconsistent, poor game planning, and not enough options for Cutler. That being said, they are 4-3 and still in a good position to make a run at the wild card spot. However, I see Arizona winning this weekend.
20. San Francisco (3-4) - The defense gave the offense every chance to win the game against the Colts this past Sunday, but the Colts came out on top. This 49ers defense will keep them in games, but can Frank Gore stay healthy and take some pressure off of Smith?

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) - Maurice Jones-Drew is all this team has.

22. Carolina Panthers (3-4) - The Panthers are too inconsistent with their performances each week, but if they get down early in a game and are forced to throw the ball, this team goes down fast.
23. Tennessee Titans (1-6) - With a new quarterback behind center, and a commitment to running the ball, the Titans are a scary team to play.

24. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - The cannot stop the run, and they have no offense.

25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) - The rest of the teams are bad, the Chiefs are coming off a bye and Larry Johnson is out, I like the Chiefs with Charles taking the handoffs.
26. Seattle Seahawks (2-5) - Hasselbeck needs lineman to help block for him so he isn't de-cleated every hit he takes.
27. Washington Redskins (2-5) - Not much to say here.

28. Oakland Raiders (2-5) - They occasionally show up to play football.

29. St. Louis Rams (1-6) - Thank god for Stephen Jackson!

30. Detroit Lions (1-6) - They need Calvin back fast.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) - 0 wins so far for the Bucs.

32. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - So bad... their fans are meeting with the owner.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Current Record:

ATS: 64-52-1 (7-5 Week 8)
SU: 74-41

Week 8 Update

1:00 games - 6-2 ATS
7-1 SU

Week 8 Update

Calvin Johnson is inactive for the Lions today, I had originally picked the Lions to win by 3 at home and for St. Louis to cover 3.5 points, I am expecting the Rams to cover with this new news of Johnson being INACTIVE. Rams may win this game outright.