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Saturday, September 10, 2011

NFL Week 1 Selections

Week 1 Selections in the NFL
Lines from

Pittsburgh +1 @ Baltimore - What a storied rivalry here. Flacco has
always struggled against Pittsburgh, especially when Roethlisberger is
starting. I think those struggles continue. The Ravens defense is
phenomenal in the front seven, but the corners are young and lack the
veteran experience to shutdown an elite quarterback. Ben
Roethlisberger should have a big day against the Ravens, but still
expect this game to be relatively close because the Ravens offense is
no joke as well. I think the departures of Mason, McGahee, and Heap
will be felt in this game. Do not be worried Ravens fans, both of
these teams will be in the playoffs, but Steelers get the best of you
in this game. Take the Steelers over the Ravens.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 - Baltimore 17

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start: Ben Roethlisberger QB, Ray Rice RB, Hines Ward WR

Detroit @ Tampa Bay -1 - Everyone and their mother is jumping on the
Lions bandwagon. Don't get me wrong, this is an improved team with a
potent offense and a tough as nails defensive line. However, Stafford
is injury prone and the secondary for Lions defense is nothing to brag
about. I again will promote the Lions as a great ATS team, but they
will come up short a lot in the W column in the standings. This
Detroit team is one more good draft class away from being a legit
contender in arguably the best division in football this season. All
this being said, I will take Josh Freeman and the home team to win by
a field goal.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 27 - Detroit 24

Fantasy Start/Sit - Sit Legarette Blunt RB, Start Matthew Stafford
QB, Josh Freeman QB

Atlanta -3 @ Chicago - What a game for the first week in the NFL. NFC
Champion runner up Chicago Bears play host to Matty Ice and the
Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are absolutely loaded on offense. They
are the younger brother to the Green Bay Packers. They have
receivers, a stud tight end, two running backs, and a stud
quarterback. This offense is elite. Now the Bears on the other hand
are shaky. The offensive line is an issue, but I am a firm supporter
of Jay Cutler and I think he has the ability to get it done. But he
doesn't have the pieces to help him. Williams, Knox, Hester, and
Bennett? Come on. Forte will do work this season, but with a bad
offensive line I think some teams will run blitz the Bears much more
than they will anticipate. I think the Falcons will do that this
week, and I think Matty Ryan will have a very nice outing to start the
season. Take the Falcons on the road.

Prediction: Atlanta 30 - Chicago 20

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Matt Ryan QB, Sit Jay Cutler QB, Start Tony
Gonzalez TE

Buffalo +5.5 @ Kansas City - Tough game for the Bills to start the
season. I like Buffalo this week, but Kansas City has to win this
game. Kansas City will not win 9 games this season, they will be 8-8
at best, but to prove they were not a fluke last season they have to
win this game at home in front of their raucous crowd. Buffalo will
be very competitive this season. Shawne Merriman seems like the
switch will be on this season, and who isn't excited for that. Ryan
Fitzpatrick gets his opportunity to be the opening starter for the
Bills this season and I think he will make the most of it.
Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson developed a great relationship last
season and that will continue this season. On the Chiefs side of the
ball, will Matt Cassell be healthy enough to play well in this game?
Will his ribs hold up? If I am the Coach of the Chiefs the first 10
plays of the game should include the following: 5 runs to Charles, 2
screens to Charles, and 3 pass attempts to Bowe down the field. Those
are the play makers for Kansas City and they are the ones that should
be involved right off the bat. Kansas City, in week 1, is already in
must-win mode. They get it done.

Prediction: Kansas City 34 - Buffalo 30

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Ryan Fitzpatrick QB, Start David Nelson WR,
Steve Breaston WR, Sit CJ Spiller RB

Indianapolis @ Houston -9 - Peyton Manning is not playing. Kerry
Collins has never won against a Wade Phillips defense. Matt Schaub
will light up the Colts secondary. Derrick Ward and Ben Tate will
control the ground game and I don't think the Colts stand a chance in
this game. I would have taken the Texans even with Manning in the

Prediction: Houston 27 - Indianapolis 10

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Derrick Ward RB (if Foster is ruled out),
Start Ben Tate (if Foster is out and you are in a PPR), Start Jacoby
Jones WR, Start Pierre Garcon, Sit Reggie Wayne, Sit Joseph Addai, Sit
Austin Collie

Philadelphia -4.5 @ St. Louis - For whatever reason there is national
hype about this game and about people thinking the Eagles are going to
struggle against the Rams. I firmly disagree. I think this is a
mismatch. The Rams defense is nothing special. The defensive line is
not as good as people say, the Laurinaitis line backing core is legit,
but the secondary is fair at best. Good luck stopping Vick and his
offensive weapons. McCoy will have a big game thanks in large part to
a screen or two, and I expect DeSean Jackson to blow up and have a big
game and then ask for his $$$. Take the Eagles here by at least a

Prediction: Philadelphia 30 - St. Louis 17

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start the entire Eagles offense, Start Steven
Jackson, Sit Sam Bradford

Cincinnati @ Cleveland -7 - This game has no significant value in my
mind. The Bengals will go through growing pains with Andy Daulton
behind center, but they do have an efficient ground game with Cedric
Benson in his contract year. I like the Browns, I think they will be
competitive all season and I think we will see nice growth from Colt
McCoy this season. That being said, this is a boring win for the

Prediction: Cleveland 20 - Cincinnati 10

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Peyton Hillis, Start Cedric Benson

Tennessee +1 @ Jacksonville - This is my lock of the weekend, and I
cannot believe it is between these two teams. What does Jacksonville
have on their minds? Their field general, David Garrard cut one week
before the season! McCown won't get it done. Chris Johnson, Kenny
Britt, and Hassellbeck are enough for the Titans.

Prediction: Tennessee 20 - Jacksonville 13

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Maurice Jones-Drew RB, Start Chris Johnson
RB, Start Kenny Britt WR, Sit Marcedes Lewis TE

New York Giants @ Washington +3 - Take Washington to win this game at
home. Landry is out for the Skins, but I like this team at home. A
very underrated defense, and finally the distractions are gone. Rex
is nothing special at quarterback, but Hightower will run hard and
Santana Moss had a very impressive preseason. Take the Skins getting
points at home.

Prediction: Washington 20 - New York 17

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Tim Hightower RB, Start Santana Moss WR, Sit
Chris Cooley TE, Start Ahmad Bradshaw RB, Sit Eli Manning QB

Carolina @ Arizona -7 - Two quarterbacks making their first regular
season starts for their respective teams. Cam Newton makes his rookie
debut for Carolina and he will show flashes of good and bad. Kevin
Kolb makes his first start for Arizona and expect big plays out of him
to get the crowd going crazy in the University of Phoenix Stadium. I
like the Cardinals to win by a touchdown or more here.

Prediction: Arizona 24 - Carolina 13

Fantasy Start/Sit - Sit Steve Smith WR, Start DeAngelo Williams RB,
Start Kevin Kolb

Seattle @ San Francisco -5.5 - Nothing to report here. Pete Carroll
vs Jim Harbaugh. Seattle will struggle to pass so they will look to
run early and often. San Francisco will look to throw early to
incorporate the play action pass for Alex Smith. I am glad this game
won't be on any of my local channels.

Prediction: San Francisco 16 - Seattle 10

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Vernon Davis TE, Start Marshawn Lynch, Sit
Mike Williams WR, Sit Sidney Rice WR (injury), Start Frank Gore RB

Minnesota @ San Diego -9 - Let it begin for the Chargers. I believe
that San Diego is poised to make a run at the Superbowl this season
and the matchup against the Vikings will be an opening test. If the
Chargers can limit big plays from Peterson I don't think the Vikings
stand a chance. Phillip Rivers is to efficient behind center, and the
1-2 punch of Matthews and Tolbert will open up some play action passes
for Vincent Jackson down the field.

Prediction: San Diego 30 - Minnesota 17

Fantasy Start/Sit - Sit Donovan McNabb

Dallas +5.5 @ New York Jets - Mark Sanchez will be blitzed early and
often, so it will be imperative for the Jets to run quick hitches and
slants so Sanchez has time to get the ball out. Jay Ratliff just
signed a 5year/$40 million contract so expect some extra pep in his
step in this game. I think DeMarcus Ware could be the x-factor for
the Cowboys defense, if he plays well I think the Cowboys upset the
Jets. The big story in this game will be the feud of brotherly love;
Rex vs Rob Ryan. I think Rob will be over prepared for this game and
it will pay off. Take the Cowboys to get the biggest upset of week 1.

Prediction: Dallas 21 - New York 20

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Shonn Greene RB, Start Felix Jones RB,
Start Tony Romo QB, Start Santonio Holmes

New England -7 @ Miami - This line is low? Should be at least 9
right? Tom Brady will throw all over the Dolphins secondary, while
Chad Henne will have to be perfect to upset Bill Belichick's team in
week 1. The Patriots are the most prepared team in all of the NFL and
that will shine through. I need a week to evaluate the Dolphins
before I can legitimately consider picking them to win more than 5
games this season.

Prediction: New England 28 - Miami 14

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Chad Ochocinco WR, Start Aaron Hernandez TE,
Sit Chad Henne QB, Sit Davone Bess WR,

Oakland @ Denver -3 - I actually think this is going to be an
exciting game to finish off week 1 in the NFL. These two teams will
put up some serious points in this game and expect both offenses to
fly high. Kyle Orton will go over 300 yard passing, and the Raiders
will go over 150 yards on the ground. This should be a close game all
the way through and I expect a 3-4 point win by Denver.

Prediction: Denver 34 - Oakland 30

Fantasy Start/Sit - Start Kyle Orton QB, Start Jason Campbell QB,
Start Michael Bush, Start Willis McGahee, Sit Both Defenses

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