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Friday, September 25, 2009

Week 3 Selections

Season Record:
22-10 Straight Up
19-13 ATS

Locks of the Week

- The Texans come into this game off a huge win in Tennessee over the Titans. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson hooked up twice, and the Texans offense looked like the offense I think we'll see very often for the rest of the season. On another note, the defense looked awful. Chris Johnson of the Titans had a monster day and broke out for several huge gains resulting in touchdowns. Jacksonville is the type of team that the Texans should blow out and keep below 17 points. But, with the way the defense has played the first two weeks of the season, that may be wishing too much. I foresee the Texans having another tremendous day both on the ground and through the air. This week, Head coach Gary Kubiak lit a fire under the butt of running back Steve Slaton by telling the media he "regrets not signing Cedric Benson" after the way he has performed this season. Slaton will have a big game and let his actions tell Coach Kubiak to stop drinking the Haterade. Texans over the Jags 34 - 20.
**Interesting notes: Houston is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS past 6 home games vs Jags.

CHICAGO over SEATTLE - Seattle looks to be without ILB Lofa Tatupu and QB Matt Hasselbeck due to injuries. With that, the Seahawks do not have a consistent run game to keep the ball out of Jay Cutler's hands. I think this has blowout written all over it. After week 1 I said Seattle has every chance in the world to take over the NFC-West, *IF* they stayed healthy. Trash talking TJ Houshmandzedah won't do enough to get a win for the home team. Jay Cutler and Greg Olsen hook up twice, while Matt Forte finally has a solid fantasy stat day. Bears over the Seahawks 27 - 10.

GREEN BAY over ST. LOUIS - The Rams are the worst football team in the NFL. The Packers are coming off a devastating home loss against the Bengals last week. I give the edge to the Packers as their players know they have a legit chance to make the playoffs and in order to do that they MUST WIN this game. Greg Jennings did not record a reception last week for the first time in 45 games. He will get plenty of work this week. Aaron Rodgers will go over the 300 yard mark and have 3 TDs (1 to Jennings). Packers over the Rams 31 - 13.

Games of the Week

Tennessee @ New York Jets - If the Jets win, it will be the first time in NFL history that a rookie quarterback will start and record a win in his first 3 NFL games. That to me, is an omen for this game. The Titans offense clicked last week. Obviously 34 points given up shows that their defense did not. This week it will. The Jets will have a solid test this week. The Titans will blitz and play a lot of cover 2 as Sanchez does not consistently look down field. It is imperative that the Titans stop the Jets run game and force them to throw the ball. Both teams will play tough defense. I think the Titans get lucky, maybe a pick-6 or a fumble late in the game. With Chris Johnson slashing through holes, and LenDale White punching in a td, the Titans will shock the Jets and get a win in the Meadowlands. Titans over the Jets 20 - 16.

San Francisco @ Minnesota - The Vikings haven't been tested yet. Wins over the Browns and Lions do not make their resume look good. A win over the 49ers, where Brett Farve throws over 30 passes will be impressive. The 49ers are a tough, physical team. They will test every aspect of the Vikings football team in this game. Head coach Mike Singletary has changed the face of this organization, and QB Shaun Hill has become a very good field general. Frank Gore is coming off a big week and is meeting a tough run defense in Minnesota. A lot of punting will take place in this game, the edge in special teams goes to the 49ers with Allen Rossum returning kicks and punts. Field position will be key in this game. Both defense will stall both offenses. It will be interesting to see what type of defensive scheme the 49ers bring at Brett Farve and Adrian Peterson. I expect to see a lot of blitzes as well as a lot of men in the box that fall back into zone coverage. I think this spread (-7) is way too high. It should be 2.5-3 tops. 49ers are for real. This game will prove it. San Francisco over Minnesota 17 - 16.

Upset of the Week

MIAMI over SAN DIEGO - San Diego is hurting. LT is out again, Shawn Merriman missed practice this week, center Nick Hartwick is out for 8 weeks due to surgery on his ankle, and DE Travis Johnson looks like he is out this week too. The Dolphins need this win. If they lose this game, they will not make the playoffs this year, and they know that. After dominating the Colts last week, having the ball for 45 minutes of the game, that loss was devastating. Defensively, the Dolphins played great football besides the one play, the bubble screen to Pierre Garcon. The corner backs were giving a 6 yard cushion, and bang, touchdown, game over. Not this week. Don't get me wrong. Phillip Rivers is a stud. But, Miami is going to control the pace of this game and with that the Chargers will never feel comfortable on offense. Miami will run all day, just as the Raiders did in week 1. The Wildcat offense will be out in full form, and I believe the Phins take down the home team. Miami upsets San Diego 24 - 20.

Rest of the games this week

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - This has upset all over it. I just don't see it happening. Extremely close game. These two teams will battle to the end, with Big Ben pulling off another great 2-minute drill to put on his resume, giving the Steelers the 20 - 17 win.

Denver @ Oakland - There is a great chance that neither teams scores a touchdown in this game. It could come down to kickers. With the way both teams have played defense these first two weeks of the season this will be a very physically exhausting game. The edge goes to the home team. Denver will not pass the ball efficiently, and Oakland will run all game whether they have success or not. Both teams will hope for big turnovers to take place and take advantage of good field position. Oakland over the Broncos 12 - 6.

Indianapolis @ Arizona - This is going to be a great game. Both teams have great offense's and lack stellar defensive play makers. For the Colts, Peyton Manning has had to win two close games against the Jaguars and Dolphins. For the Cardinals, Kurt Warner came back to old form against the Jaguars last week. I think the big plays of the Cardinals, and the fact that Tim Hightower will have success running the ball, will get themselves a win at home. Cardinals over the Colts 30 -24.

Carolina @ Dallas - Jerry Jones will terminate all contracts of the Cowboys players if they lose two straight at the new field. There is no analysis needed for this matchup. Dallas over the Panthers 30 - 17.

New Orleans @ Buffalo - Trap game anyone?? Nope. Drew Brees is cash money once again this week. Buffalo can blitz, can drop to zone, can go man coverage, it won't matter. Too much fire power for the Bills to overcome. Brees and Shockey hook up at least once. TO will have another good game for the Bills (as long as his visor in his face mask isn't dirty cough cough). Saints over the Bills 45 - 30.

Atlanta @ New England - Would this be considered an upset if Atlanta wins? I almost don't want to predict this game until I know the status of Moss and Welker. I have heard and read rumors that Welker is in, but Moss is out and vice verse. That being said, I bet both play. With Welker back in the line up, the Patriots are back to old form. This is a very tough opponent. It is very hard to pick against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Ryan and Tony G have formed a chemistry that is making Gonzo look like he is 25 again. This will be a tight game. Atlanta is in better shape to win this game. I go with Atlanta over the Patriots 27 - 24.

Washington @ Detroit - Not this week Lions. Washington over Detroit 20 - 10.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay - The Bucs have put up decent offensive numbers, that's because they have been trailing by double digits in every game so far. This will happen again this week as the Giants come down to Tampa to give them an 0-3 record. Eli Manning is playing his best football right now, Mario Manningham and Steve Smith are rising to the occassion, and Brandon Jacobs has yet to have a huge game (WATCH OUT). Giants win big in Tampa, 34 - 13.

Cleveland @ Baltimore - Cleveland will make it look close in the first half (10-3), maybe. Baltimore is too good. Winning in San Diego, Joe Flacco and company looks in mid-season form, and Ray Lewis is STILL Ray Lewis. No shot for Brady Quinn. Mangini will be on the hottest hot seat after this ugly loss. Baltimore over Cleveland 27 - 3.

Kansas City @ Philadelphia - Andy Reid and the Eagles are 2-7 ATS b efore the Bye Week. The spread in this game is still OFF as of this morning, however, it won't matter. The Eagles defense is hungry after what happened last week when Drew Brees exploited them. Matt Cassel is in for hell. Trent Cole will be hunting him down every play, and Macho Harris will be a ball hawk all day to prove to Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott he is a true safety in the NFL. Offensively, Westbrook may be out for the Eagles, it won't matter. Kolb looked fine last week and will continue to progress positively this week. Michael Vick will see his first game action, looks like 8-15 plays, and will have a good chance at a goalline touchdown. Eagles get the win at home over the Chiefs 24 - 10.

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